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Class 3A Championship Preview and Prediction (12/7)

PA Preps previews and predicts the Class 3A championship battle this weekend on the gridiron now!

Championship Matchup:

Middletown vs. Quaker Valley

Prediction:

Middletown 14, Quaker Valley 10

Why:

Defense wins championships and Middletown has been a force on that side of the ball. This group is focused on winning a state title.

Confidence in Prediction:

Medium

Agree/disagree? Add your predictions now as well!

Class 2A Championship Preview and Prediction (12/8)

PA Preps previews and predicts the Class 2A championship battle this weekend on the gridiron now!

Championship Matchup:

Southern Columbia Area vs. Wilmington Area

Prediction:

Southern Columbia Area 42, Wilmington Area 27

Why:

The sheer amount of athletes that Southern Columbia Area lines up with is at another level. These playmakers have a chance to be a dynasty for years to come.

Confidence in Prediction:

High

Agree/disagree? Add your predictions now as well!

Class 5A Championship Preview and Prediction (12/5)

PA Preps previews and predicts the Class 5A championship battle this weekend on the gridiron now!

Championship Matchup:

Archbishop Wood vs. Gateway

Prediction:

Archbishop Wood 29, Gateway 21

Why:

Archbishop Wood has played one of the toughest schedules in the state and that gives them an edge against the Class 5A foes that they face off against.

Confidence in Prediction:

Medium

Agree/disagree? Add your predictions now as well!

Class 6A Championship Preview and Prediction (11/27)

PA Preps previews and predicts the Class 6A championship battle this weekend on the gridiron now!

Championship Matchup:

St. Joseph's Prep vs. Pine-Richland

Prediction:

Pine-Richland 35, St. Joseph's Prep 31

Why:

Being able to count on a quarterback with the skills of Phil Jurkovec, Pine-Richland is able to make enough plays late to make this an amazing championship matchup.

Confidence in Prediction:

Low

Agree/disagree? Add your predictions now as well!

CFP…who do you have

before the bright boys start their rehearsed diatribes this morning (some of which is actually fun) who do you guys like?

I like conference winners Georgia, Clemson, OU and OSU. So, do you go with the 4 best teams whoever they are? USC is playing pretty good! But that approach changes weekly, is always in flux as per Auburn who was unbeatable for a stretch, like PSU and Bama. Bama sure screwed things up looking bad on consecutive weekends against Miss St then getting pounded by Auburn.

SJP-Coatesville

How about a thread that focuses just on the actual game ahead?

From what I read, the game conditions should be decent for this time of year--fairly cold with some wind but no rain or snow. I caught about half of Coatesville's win on Friday on the livestream and am wondering whether they generally play better. I'm assuming they do. It was clear that they have a fair bit of speed, especially on offense, but their execution on offense and their tackling were haphazard--sometimes good and sometimes poor. Maybe they were looking past Garnet Valley. I'm expecting a close game Friday night.

Confidence Pool - Week 5

Ok, here we go....

Ten games vs the spread. Use the following points once for each game.

200-150-125-100-90-80-70-60-50-25

Games:

6A- SJ Prep (-11.5) vs Coatesville
6A- Pine-Richland (-23.5) vs Manheim Township

5A- Wood (-21.5) vs Unionville
5A- Manheim Central (-3.5) vs Gateway

4A- Imhotep (-3.5) vs BECA
4A- Erie Cath. Prep (-20.5) vs Berks Catholic

3A- Middletown (-8.5) vs Conwell-Egan
3A- Quaker Valley (EVEN) vs Sharon

2A- So. Columbia (-22.5) vs Dunmore
2A- Wilmington (-5-5) vs Washington

Over/Unders: (15 points each) (6 GAMES)
SJP/CV 45.5
AW/UV 46.5
IC/BECA 51.5
ECO/BC 52.5
MD/CE 48.5
SC/DUN 47.5

Prop Bets: (10 points each): Over/Under
1. Coatesville rushing yards = 70.5
2. Ortega passing yards = 157.5
3. Total Extra Points made in SJP/CV game = 7.5
4. SJP RB Burrell/Mason Total rushing yards = 112.5
5. SJP/CV Total Receptions = 24.5
6. Patrick Garwo rush yards = 106.5
7. 2-point conversions by Imhotep = 2.5
8. AW Nasir Peoples' carries = 18.5
9. Wood pass attempts = 8.5
10. Total FGs in games involving SJP/AW/CE/IC = 1.5

Bonus Points: (50-10-5)
Pick the Score --

SJP/CV
AW/UV
CE/MD
IC/BECA

Becahi vs Imhotep

First thing first, The fact Becahi has to travel to Philly for this game seems unfair. I get it is the rule that is in place, but lets face it, its a home game for them.

Secondly, I can tell you this much... it isn't going to matter. This year's Beca team has experience playing Imhotep as most of these guys are back. Save for a great play by their QB last year and that game was more than winnable. You heard it here first, Beca wins easy!

The Playoffs: All classifications write-ups and Power Ratings (5A-6A)

5A East
Archbishop Wood D12 10-2 vs Unionville D3 13-1, Ne Philly Supersite, 12/1, 7.

Unionville got their first district title since 1994 (3A) and record setting 13th win of the season, both school records, with the District title win at Springfield 35-25. It was a close game with 2 minutes to go when another Springfield fumble was lost, their 3rd, but this time in the end zone for 6 to seal it. Reality finally caught up with Wyoming Valley West (7-7) last week where Archbishop Wood overwhelmed the Trojans, holding them to 221 total offense (175 rushing) and seven 1st downs in a 41-14 victory. Nasir Peoples had a strong outing, rushing for 175 yards and 2 scores on 16 carries. Imagine the score if 4 touchdowns weren’t wiped out by penalties. A glance at both Archbishop Wood’s schedule and Unionville’s shows quite a contrast with the Vikings stacking up against Oxbridge Academy, Bergen Catholic and LaSalle with losses to Paramus Catholic and St. Joe’s….whereas Unionville was routed by Downingtown East 45-21 and narrowly defeated Spring Ford, Academy Park and Rustin. You could say they won the Central League title as well as the Ches Mont-American with wins against Strath Haven, Marple Newtown and Springfield in the postseason. Great chemistry with this group too but not enough to get past the big, bad defending 5A champ Wood who is favored by 20.07 points.

5A West
Gateway D7 13-1 vs Manheim Central D3, 13-0, Altoona-Mansion Park, 12/1, 7.

Gateway rolled out 602 total yards of offense (!) with quarterback Brady Walker accounting for 464 of that, 330 yards through the air. Wide out Courtney Jackson caught 11 of his passes for 226 yards as Gateway overwhelmed Hollidaysburg (8-4) 49-30. Turnovers kept it close with 5 Gator fumbles and 2 interceptions. That won’t work against this week’s opponent Manheim Central who won their 17th district tile beating Governor Mifflin (12-2) 30-29. The Barons seemed in control with 14-0 and 20-7 leads. But the Mustangs are the Mustangs and put on a fierce rally (two 3rd qtr scores) taking a 29-23 lead with 4:47 to go. Sophomore Qb Evan Simon (18/29-247, 2 Tds) led a 72-yard drive to ice it with a 33-yd strike to Vinny Lester with just under 4 minutes to go. He's one of their keys with 2066 yards passing and 410 rushing on the year along with Tyler Flick at 1487 rush yards and Giovanni Lester with 684. Both are strong backs, Flick at 6-0, 190, Lester at 5-10, 200. It’s a ig offense averaging 45ppg with a D allowing 14. Gateway counters with one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the state in Brady Walker with a 64% completion rate for 3599 yards and a 38/7 Td-Pick ratio. He’s also rushed for 584 yards so that’s the challenge for the Barons while the Gators try to control their multiple offense. It’s at the Mansion where the stats lean to Manheim Central by 7.58 points.

6A East
St. Joseph’s Prep D12 12-0 vs Coatesville D1 13-1, Kottmeyer Stadium, Downingtown, 12/1, 7.

The District-3 Title game was one for the ages in a back and forth struggle that saw Coatesville’s Avery Young score on a 72-yard jaunt with a Pick-6 in the final minute of play. Wow! Just before that Garnet Valley (12-2) drove to Coatesville’s 35-yard line facing a 4th and 3 and it “felt” like a Jaguar win at that point. Emotions swung back and forth in this one! Watching it on TV, it looked like the Jags would pull it out, going on another drive after the Pick-6 until Avery Young snagged another one to end the drive and game with Coatesville on top 35-28. Total O favored Garnet Valley 428 to 295. Coatesville moves on to play defending 6A state champ St. Joseph’s Prep who had no trouble with Parkland winning 49-14. This one was over at the half where they held a 35-7 lead then skated home (running clock mid-3rd) with their 26th consecutive win. How bout them Hawks! Tough defending these guys seeing how well the offense is distributed with Qb Marquez McCoy completing 9 of 14 for 188 yards and rushing for another 44. Brandon Sanders has 4 receptions for 104 yards with running backs Marques Mason and Kolbe Burrell getting 60 and 73 yards respectively. Their defense again shined, holding Jason Worth to 23 yards on 12 carries. And that’s the difference here with SJP’s average score against “quality” opposition including Jesuit, St Peters Prep, Wood, LaSalle x2, Northeast and Parkland at 29-9, compared to 38-24 for Coatesville against Cumberland Valley, D-town East x2, Pennsbury and Garnet Valley. Leaning heavy on Garnet Valley and CV as statistical and actual “how to” templates to beat Coatesville, the numbers say its St. Joe’s by 21.24 points.

6A West
Manheim Township D3 12-1 vs Pine Richland D7 14-0, Altoona-Mansion Park, 12/2, 1.

Back in Hershey, Manheim Township proved themselves with a 30-29 win over Cumberland Valley (10-3) to win their 1st district crown. It must feel good getting out from under the long shadow cast by Wilson over the years. Township’s primary weapons, Qb Luke Emge and running back Grayson Sallade keyed the win with Emge completing 15 of 22 for 174 yards and Sallade gaining 152 yards on 30 carries. His carries largely tell the story which was to flip it on CV and just pound away. Doing as much, they controlled the lines, holding them to 94 yards rushing. This is the same Eagle team that got 188 yards rushing against Coatesville. Out in Greensburg at Hempfield High, Pine Richland took care of State College but not until the Lions gave them a 14-14 halftime scare. SC was the most talented team the Rams played to date with weapons and skill all over the field. But no one has a quarterback like Phil Jurkovec (7771 career passing) who eventually did his thing, this time to the tune of 373 total yards by completing 20 of 25 passes for 252 yards and 3 scores while rushing for 121 yards and 2 more scores! The Rams exploded in the 3rd quarter following SC’s failed onside kick, outscoring them 28-7 and that was that. On the year, he stands at 191 completions in 253 attempts, an uncanny 75% completion rate for 3279 yards. His touchdown to interception ratio is 33 to 4 while rushing for 908 more yards! A schedule read shows the Rams with a slight edge but a huge statistical advantage especially offensively pushing the number to 18.78 in their favor. Rams rule!

The Playoffs: All classifications write-ups and Power Ratings (3A-4A)

3A East
Conwell Egan D12 7-6 vs Middletown D3 15-0, Rustin HS, 12/2, 1.

Conwell Egan gave the Colonial League a taste of the Philadelphia Catholic League with a 34-17 win over previously undefeated Palisades (13-1) 34-17. Eagle back Patrick Garwo was unstoppable, rushing for 284 yards on 28 carries and 3 scores. But now they face a more talented adversary, playing last year’s 3A runner-up Middletown who pounded Scranton Prep (14-1) senseless with 3 backs. Brady Fox led the way with 104, with Tyreer Mills getting 93 and Tre Leach 84. Jose Lopez (1752ry) was out with an injury but not this week. They shut down Prep’s Qb Leo O’Boyle to 12 completions on 24 attempts for 82 yards while grinding out 278 yards on the ground in a 35-0 win. CEC will definitely be able to hang with Middletown up front but will they be able to corral the backs the Blue Raiders throw at you, something like West Catholic, Episcopal and Lansdale Catholic do with a reliable rushing attack. Can Middletown manage Patrick Garwo’s (1842 ry) speed and power? I used to live in Middletown that borders Highspire then Steelton along the river and can tell you they’re tough kids. It’s a football centric area. This one is hard to call (all of em are!) with CEC’s size and Garwo vs Middletown’s backs and defense. But the math says the Blue Raders take it by 22.72 points. Seems high.

3A West
Sharon D10 10-3 vs Quaker Valley D7 12-1, North Hills HS, 12/1 7.

Sharon’s big and diverse offense generated 467 total yards of offense (174r-293p) beating a game Forest Hills (11-2) 45-25. Soph Qb Lane Voytik completed 16 of 24 for 293 yards (2154 total) with Jordan Wilson (5-11, 215, 1302 season) getting 152 yards rushing and Ziyon Strickland (1432 season) snagging 7 passed for 96 yards. Nice array of skill. Rangers Qb Adam Cecere threw 3 touchdowns, completing 28 of 48 passes for 336 yards in a losing cause. Quite an aerial display by both teams! They’ll play Quaker Valley who is coming off a bye week after winning their first Wpial crown with the 2-0 (safety) defeat of Aliquippa (12-1) the week before. They’ve made a statement this year with Coach John Tortorea resigning August 4th (!), replaced by Jerry Veschio. But they’re a handful for anyone with a senior, veteran team along the lines, a talent at wide out in Isaiah McNair and a duel threat in quarterback Ricky Goss. Pretty sweet being here off a 5-4 season last year. Wins over North Catholic, Seton LaSalle twice and Aliquippa make this a lean to QV over Tigers with losses to Wilmington, Greenville and South Range-OH. Quakers by 8.77 points.


4 East
Imhotep Charter School D12 12-1 vs Bethlehem Catholic D11 12-2, Germantown Supersite, 12/1, 7.

Imhotep had no trouble with Valley View (10-4) opening up a 28-0 half time lead that ballooned to 41-0 by games end. The stats matched the score with the Panthers gaining 562 total yards of offense of which 472 came on the ground. No surprise here knowing VV allowed 17ppg coming in! Bethlehem Catholic is next after escaping Selinsgrove (11-3) 33-32. Seals Qb Logan Leiby almost got them, completing 14 of 24 passes for 328 yards and 4 scores. But the weight of Beca’s assault evidently wore them down (battered by Bisko, winded by Banks), after a 13-12 deficit to score 21 4th quarter points….in large part by way of 194 yards rushing in that quarter alone. Super soph Tavion Banks rushed for 178 yards on 10 carries with senior Matt Bisko adding another 156. That’s who the Panthers have to stop, especially Banks while the Golden Hawks attempt to contend with Isheem Young (793ry, 18 Tds), Qb Jalen Sutton-Christian (1568, 22 Tds) and others. ICS beat Beca last year 24-13 and have the edge here in a homer and with a more diverse attack and real passing threat. A win here gets them to their 3rd consecutive finals appearance. ICS takes this one by 12.04 points.

4A West
Berks Catholic D3 13-0 vs Cathedral Prep D10 12-0, Somerset HS, 12/1, 7.

Berks Catholic finally got well-earned status in the district and beyond by defeating the dominant private school power from Harrisburg, Bishop McDevitt, in the District-3 title game 45-25. Berks had this one in hand from the beginning, with a 28-9 halftime lead and 31-17 at the end of the 3rd quarter. This was a pounding, with the Saints running right at them, getting 445 yards on the ground, featuring Syracuse bound Cooper Lutz’s 222 yards (school record) on 18 carries. He has 3016 career yards, 754 coming in the last 4 games. Terrance Derr threw enough to keep them honest completing 5 of 6 passes for 52 yards. Up next is the team that beat them last year in the semifinal, Erie’s Cathedral Prep. Cathedral had little trouble getting their 26th win in a row beating Thomas Jefferson 42-17. This is their 3rd consecutive win over TJ in a state playoff to preserve their record of not losing to a WPIAL team in 8 years! Qb Joe Mischler (Ohio, all time D10 pass leader, +7400 yds) completed 13 of 22 for 190 yards, with WR/DB Terry Roberts (1032py), WR Tyler Oedekoven (964py), RBs Matt Lupo (821ry) and Billy Lucas (626ry), OL/DL Juice Scruggs (PSU), linebacker Matt Bauer (Notre Dame) doing their usual damage. Scary team, remembering they beat the pants off Pittsburgh Central Catholic 40-7 at the top of the season….as convincingly as Pine Richland did at the end, 42-7. This looks like a competitive game as BC is the real deal, losing to Cathedral last year 28-14 in a tight one. The Ramblers might win with one, with a few more weapons but it will be competitive with the Saints going down hard by 8.71 points.

The Playoffs: All classifications write-ups and Power Ratings (1A-2A)

Nov 28 2017 (Defending state champ underlined)


1A East
Steelton Highspire D3 11-2 vs Homer-Center D6 12-1, Hollidaysburg HS, 12/1, 7.

Homer-Center pulled the 2nd major upset of the tournament (Harrisburg) ending 3-time defending state champ Bishop Guilfoyle’s 59 game winning streak in a 20-14 upset! Then again, a glance at stats shows total dominance by the Wildcats outgaining the BS Guilfoyle (12-1) 258 yards to 72! Maybe it wasn’t an upset with the only thing close being the score. This snapped the 3rd longest HS winning streak in the country. Their opponent this week is Steel High who flipped that by dominating shorthanded Williams Valley (13-1) in a 41-6 rout despite allowing 224 rush yards. WV was playing without Dylan Rabuck (ankle) who had rushed for 2902 yards this year, 2362 the year before and 1065 as a soph. The Wildcats will line up and bash you as they did Guilfoyle with Jesse Lee (6-1, 220, sr, 1285) and Mke McCracken (60, 185, sr, 982), whereas Steelton will mix it up between Qb Malachi Young (2110, 27 Tds), RB Dupree Andrews’s quickness (1397) and outside threats in Kavon Hope and Jarvai Flowers with 576 and 619 reception yards respectively. The Rollers score a lot of points at 37ppg but give up 24, whereas HC averages 31 but allows 13. SHHS’s more difficult schedule slants the math their way but only by a litle where they should eke out a win at Hollidaysburg High by 5.22 points.
1A West
Jeannette D7 13-2 vs Farrell D10 11-2, Seneca Valley HS, 12/1, 7.Jeannette and Imani Christian Academy (11-2) locked up in another epic district title game with Jeannette prevailing 35-34 to win their 9th WPIAL title. What a conference the East is with Jeannette, Clairton and Imani battling it out every year. Qb Seth Howard scorched them for 188 yards on an 8 of 15 outing while Robert Kennedy ran for 136 yards. The Jayhawks had 403 total yards to ICA’s 288. Their opponent this weekend, Farrell, had no trouble with Ridgeway-Johnsonburg (9-4), scoring on the first play from scrimmage when Qb Isaac Clarke (Bishop Curley transfer, Balt-MD) hit Jourdan Townsend on a 72-yard strike for Townsend’s 21st touchdown of the year; a District -10 single season record. He finished with 235 yards on 9 receptions with Clarke completing 11 of 16 for 235 yards. He’s at 2188 yards for the year with a 69% completion rate. Both give up a lot of points verses quality (Avg yields, Jeannette 29, Farrell 18) with the math calling for the Steelers to edge Jeannette by 9.50 points.


2A East
Southern Columbia D4 14-0 vs Dunmore D2 14-0, Danville HS, 12/1, 7.

Southern Columbia returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown in the quarterfinal at Lehighton and it was all downhill from there as the Tigers defeated Neumann Goretti 45-12. Neumann (11-1) had their moments, coming back from a 24-0 halftime deficit to tightening things up to 24-12 at the start of the 3rd. But the bottom line saw Southern’s defense dominating, holding the Saints to minus 14 rush yards while sacking Qb Charles Britt 8 times. SCA had 4 turnovers themselves. In the other Double-A game and despite losing 2 key players, Ligonier Valley (13-1) jumped out to a 14-0 lead with the Bucks battling back to a 14-14 tie at the half. Initially both traded scores with Dunmore scoring with 6 minutes to go before stopping LV at the 13-yards line to pull out a 23-20 win. Something has to give between these historic coal mining powers and both play great defense. But only one has the monster offense proven again and again against such quality comp as Selinsgrove and Neumann Goretti. Southern by 18.53.
2A West
Wilmington D10 13-0 vs Washington D7 13-0, Slippery Rock Univ, 12/1, 7.

As mentioned last week, next to Southern Columbia, Wilmington is the deepest team in 2A returning almost everyone, 7 on offense and 8 on defense making them one fast and mean Greyhound. They showed some of that last week when they trounced Clarion (12-1), holding them to 26-yards rushing on 28 attempts in a 33-6 win. Bryson Verrelli had 114 rushing with Jack Patton adding 94 as the Hounds rolled out 514 total yards of offense to Clarions 118. The other game saw Washington put a 37-10 hurting on defending state champion Steel Valley (11-1), ending the Ironmen’s 26 game winning streak in the District Title game. Their line featuring Myckel Brown (6-3, 255) and sophomore Gerald Comedy (6-2, 265) dominated, with the Prexies rushing for 341 yards against previously undefeated Steel Valley. Wash High has a pile of weapons in Qb Zack Swartz (60%, 1785, 27/0 ratio!), Nick Welsh with over 2000 yards rushing, Isaiah Schoonmaker at 742 rushing and Daniel Walker at 580 yards in receptions. Double-A is really loaded this year. Looks like a war with Washington taking it by 11.27 points unless they get zapped by the bright lights.
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