Just based off the “eyeball test” I would say District 1 is certainly down at the 6A level. These Downingtown teams are significantly worse than a few years ago in my opinion; ditto for NP. These teams couldn’t make a Final Four 5-10 years ago in my view. Again, just my opinion.
I'll talk about District 1 and then Central Bucks specifically, although some of it applies to all districts I would think.
District 1:
1. Major demographic shifts in a lot of towns transitioning from mainly blue collar to white collar upper middle class, along with different ethnic groups moving into the area. That yields fewer football players in a time that there is already a shrinking group of kids playing the sport.
2. Increasing number of specializing, one-sport athletes.
3. To illustrate, look at the North Penn sideline / roster. Still a decent size, maybe 70 kids? (I didn't take the time to look / count) It's not that long ago that they had duplicate numbers on the sideline because they were dressing well over 100.
4. Athletes travelling a long way to attend privates. Some of them are following family traditions even though the families have moved into the suburbs, others obviously feel that they have a better opportunity elsewhere.
Central Bucks:
1. Even though this area has undergone the same demographic shifts as I talked about above, it is still producing a LOT of football talent. Central Bucks became less relevant on the state level only because of the opening of CB South.
2. If West / East hadn't been split, each of those schools would be around the size of Pennsbury HS. Still smaller than North Penn and Neshaminy, but still would be two of the largest in District 1. With the right staffs in place (Like Rowan at West), they wouldn't even be challenged in the SOL National. Add half the South starters to CB West this year, and do they even play a close game? (If you're a South guy, feel free to imagine adding half the West roster to your team) Last year, can they give the Prep a game? Maybe that's a stretch but there wouldn't be a team in the state outside of Prep that they'd worry about lining up against. They'd average 275-280 across the front every year, have a stable of backs to choose from, and could easily two-platoon with no drop off. They'd be able to survive the loss of players to the privates, although they might not leave as often as they do now if West and/or East were powerhouses.
3. Sidwar left Central Bucks (South) to reclassify and repeat 8th grade (this would be his senior year if he had stayed), Lasalle had 7 starters coming from West territory alone in 2022, etc..
Conclusion: Football participation is down, demographics have changed, players to privates from the suburbs is up, schools got split up (not just in CB), and coaches just need to make due with what they have left. West dressed fewer than 40 players last week and I'm sure it'll be even lower this week. What I will say about District 1 is that in general everyone is dealing with similar issues so there isn't a big competitive advantage being gained anywhere, except that the divide between the publics and privates is almost certainly growing.
