At this point in the year, the Born Power Index does a nice job of setting lines for playoff games. With so many mismatches still at this point in the year, thought it would be more fun to make state playoff picks against the spread. I'll try and do this for the rest of the tournament. Call your bookie before 7 to get these games in! The rankings are not mine, they are how teams stack up amongst squads remaining in the Born Index. The best team NOT still playing is Central York, who is #14 in the computer model.
District 1
#20 North Penn at #12 Downingtown West (-7.5)
#18 Haverford at #19 Downingtown East (PICK)
#14 Coatesville (-6.5) at #21 CB West: Coatesville -6.5
#26 Plymouth Whitemarsh (+10.5) at #23 Garnet Valley
The computers DO NOT like District 1 – I cannot remember a time D1 did not have a team ranked in the top 10 in this model. If you’re gambling, there may be some value here. I like Downingtown West to cover 7.5 against against North Penn, and I’d go against the Central League and take Downingtown East in their pick ‘em with Haverford. Coatesville by less than a touchdown also seems like a good bet, give me the road favorite. Don’t have a good feel for the remaining game, but 10.5 feels high when the teams both aren’t world beaters.
District 3
#5 Harrisburg at #11 Wilson West Lawn (+11.5)
#6 Central Dauphin at #3 Manheim Township (-8)
On the flip side, the computer LOVE District 3. From my untrained eye, it’s probably the deepest Central PA has been at the big school level. Like the computers, I really like Manheim Township and I think Harry Kirk and company can cover -8 against Central Dauphin. For my money, they are the second best team in the state. On the flip side, I think 11.5 is way too much to be giving Doug Dahms. Don’t know if I’d go as far as taking the Dogs to win outright, but absolutely give me the points in WWL vs. Harrisburg
District 12
#1 St. Joseph’s Prep (-12.5) vs. #7 LaSalle
#28 Olney Charter vs. #25 Northeast (-29.5)
I’d take St. Joseph’s Prep by any number you put on the board. Tease the Hawks if you can, and I’d definitely take them by less than two touchdowns against pretty much everybody in America. Northeast is pretty decent, Olney isn’t, I’ll lay the points in that one too.
District 11
#24 Easton vs. #13 Nazareth (-12)
#15 Parkland vs. #17 Freedom (+1.5)
I previewed these games in depth on another thread. I like Nazareth and Freedom more than the computers do – particularly the Patriots.
District 7
#22 Mount Lebanon vs. #4 Pittsburgh Central Catholic (-22)
#9 North Allegheny (+15.5) at #2 Pine-Richland
Pittsburgh Central Catholic doesn’t score a ton of points, but I think there is a clear delineation between the top 3 in the WPIAL and everybody else. Mount Lebanon is part of everybody else, give me the Vikings by more than three touchdowns. On the flip side, Pine-Richland is giving way too many against a good North Allegheny team. Their defense will be ready – I don’t think they can score enough to win, but they can stop the Rams enough to cover.
District 2/4/6/10
#10 State College (PICK) at #8 Erie McDowell
#27 Wilkes Barre at #16 Delaware Valley (-28)
The best game of the weekend by line and ranking is a top 10 match up between State College and Erie McDowell. The Little Lions have tons of playoff experience on their side and their top end talent is as good as anybody outside of SJP. Put them in a three team parlay with SJP and Freedom or Coatesville. Wilkes Barre just shouldn’t be playing at this point in the year – Delaware Valley has some firepower on offense and Josh Balcarel is a really nice running back. They can cover four touchdowns.
District 1
#20 North Penn at #12 Downingtown West (-7.5)
#18 Haverford at #19 Downingtown East (PICK)
#14 Coatesville (-6.5) at #21 CB West: Coatesville -6.5
#26 Plymouth Whitemarsh (+10.5) at #23 Garnet Valley
The computers DO NOT like District 1 – I cannot remember a time D1 did not have a team ranked in the top 10 in this model. If you’re gambling, there may be some value here. I like Downingtown West to cover 7.5 against against North Penn, and I’d go against the Central League and take Downingtown East in their pick ‘em with Haverford. Coatesville by less than a touchdown also seems like a good bet, give me the road favorite. Don’t have a good feel for the remaining game, but 10.5 feels high when the teams both aren’t world beaters.
District 3
#5 Harrisburg at #11 Wilson West Lawn (+11.5)
#6 Central Dauphin at #3 Manheim Township (-8)
On the flip side, the computer LOVE District 3. From my untrained eye, it’s probably the deepest Central PA has been at the big school level. Like the computers, I really like Manheim Township and I think Harry Kirk and company can cover -8 against Central Dauphin. For my money, they are the second best team in the state. On the flip side, I think 11.5 is way too much to be giving Doug Dahms. Don’t know if I’d go as far as taking the Dogs to win outright, but absolutely give me the points in WWL vs. Harrisburg
District 12
#1 St. Joseph’s Prep (-12.5) vs. #7 LaSalle
#28 Olney Charter vs. #25 Northeast (-29.5)
I’d take St. Joseph’s Prep by any number you put on the board. Tease the Hawks if you can, and I’d definitely take them by less than two touchdowns against pretty much everybody in America. Northeast is pretty decent, Olney isn’t, I’ll lay the points in that one too.
District 11
#24 Easton vs. #13 Nazareth (-12)
#15 Parkland vs. #17 Freedom (+1.5)
I previewed these games in depth on another thread. I like Nazareth and Freedom more than the computers do – particularly the Patriots.
District 7
#22 Mount Lebanon vs. #4 Pittsburgh Central Catholic (-22)
#9 North Allegheny (+15.5) at #2 Pine-Richland
Pittsburgh Central Catholic doesn’t score a ton of points, but I think there is a clear delineation between the top 3 in the WPIAL and everybody else. Mount Lebanon is part of everybody else, give me the Vikings by more than three touchdowns. On the flip side, Pine-Richland is giving way too many against a good North Allegheny team. Their defense will be ready – I don’t think they can score enough to win, but they can stop the Rams enough to cover.
District 2/4/6/10
#10 State College (PICK) at #8 Erie McDowell
#27 Wilkes Barre at #16 Delaware Valley (-28)
The best game of the weekend by line and ranking is a top 10 match up between State College and Erie McDowell. The Little Lions have tons of playoff experience on their side and their top end talent is as good as anybody outside of SJP. Put them in a three team parlay with SJP and Freedom or Coatesville. Wilkes Barre just shouldn’t be playing at this point in the year – Delaware Valley has some firepower on offense and Josh Balcarel is a really nice running back. They can cover four touchdowns.
