aith Christian vs. Notre Dame (GP)
107: #10 Kole Davidheiser (23-7) vs. Tanner Berkenstock (14-7) or #4 Ayden Smith (31-3)
The first decision point where this morning’s weigh ins will make a difference. Ayden Smith has been down at 107 all year and is ranked amongst the top kids in the country at the weight. However, since District Duals, Smith has been wrestling 114, with Tanner Berkenstock down at 114. If Smith weighs in at 107, he is a solid favorite to beat Davidheiser, but Davidheiser would be a solid favorite to at least beat, if not bonus Berkenstock. If ND is going to win, Smith has to get down to 107 and beat Davidheiser.
114: Owin Brunner (8-5) or #2 Gauge Botero (30-2) vs. Tanner Berkenstock (14-7) or #4 Ayden Smith (31-3)
Here is our next real decision point. PA Power has this projected as Botero wrestling at 114 instead of 121, where he’s been all year. Berkenstock would be a solid favorite to beat Brunner, but Botero would likely pin Berkenstock. I also don’t love Smith’s chances coming up from 107 wrestling Botero who is coming down from 121. Size matters. But similarly, Smith pins Brunner if he’s here.
121: Owin Brunner (8-5) or #2 Gauge Botero (30-2) vs. #14 Cooper Feltman (16-11)
Feltman has turned himself into a really nice wrestler, highlighted by his win earlier in the year over state finalist Cole Campbell (Bethlehem catholic). But Botero pinned him in the first minute of their match at Escape the Rock. Feltman will get bonus points against Brunner if Botero goes down to 114, but it’s six for FC otherwise.
127: #11 Arment Waltenbaugh (14-4) vs. Gavyn Kelton (14-11)
Waltenbaugh beat Kelton in a wild match at Escape the Rock, 18-11. Two really talented freshman, with Waltenbaugh being more seasoned at this point in their careers.
133: #7 Mason Wagner (26-7) vs. Tanner McQueen (10-12)
Should be a fall for Faith Christian.
139: #4 Chase Hontz (27-8) vs. #13 Bryson Vaugh (22-10)
Hontz is the more talented wrestler here, Vaughn has been around the block as a senior who has been practice partners with Ryan Crookham and Brandan Chletsos and has a state medal himself. Hontz is defienitely the favorite, but if ND is going to win, they need a match like this to go their way and Vaughn as a senior might be their best bet.
145: #6 Max Stein (29-7) vs. #1 Vince Bouzakis (29-7)
One of the best matches of the dual, this was 3-2 Bouzakis at Escape the Rock. Could potentially be a state final. I will say, Bouzakis, the most controversial transfer of the offseason, has not looked like the incredible worldbeater advertised when he came in from Wyoming Seminary.
152: #8 Cael Weidemoyer (22-3) vs. #9 Keegan Ramsay (15-10)
Weidemoyer has put together an incredibly impressive freshman year and looks like a future state champ. Ramsay was a state qualifier as a freshman and has taken ten losses against a really tough schedule. This is the biggest coinflip in the dual, and again, one Notre Dame needs.
160: #5 Luke Sugalski (18-6) vs. #11 Joey LaPenna (8-4)
So this is a real hinge point of the dual. Sugalski was a state qualifier as a freshman and again is one of the superstar young upper weights for Faith Christian. LaPenna has wrestled up in weight his whole career, and even this year started up at 189 while he was coming off of a football injury and coming down in weight (he was 189 last year while weighing in in the high 160s). He’s going to be very big and strong for 160, and he can push Sugalski.
172: #1 Adam Waters (31-1) vs. #2 Holden Garcia (27-6)
This is the marquee matchup. Garcia is the returning state champion, a Princeton commit, and has been nationally ranked for most of the last two years. Waters is one of the best freshman upperweights we’ve seen. Waters really put himself on the map by beating Garcia, 3-1, in the finals at Escape the Rock. I think we’ll see this today, in the SE Regional Final, and in the State Final at 172 pounds.
189: #12 Jason Singer (20-7) vs. Connor Smalley (11-15)
Smalley has been pushed into action with the ineligibility ruling on Dominic Sumpolec. Smalley has had a nice freshman year essentially wrestling up two weights (he’s probably a 160 at this point) and a bright future, but Singer is going to win this one handily.
215: #4 Mark Effendian (28-9) vs. #12 Jared Blobe (24-8)
Another great match up, Blobe has really blossomed in the back half of his career as a good 215 pounder. Crazy strong, sound fundamentals. Effendian has a higher ceiling and is a better athlete, so if he can push pace, this should be a big win for Faith Christian.
286: Ben Mertz (1-4) vs. #3 Aiden Compton (29-8)
Compton by fall.
Here’s what I’ve got – I’m predicting Berkenstock goes 107, and we get Smith-Botero at 114.
107: Faith Christian by major 4-0
114: Faith Christian by decision 7-0
121: Notre Dame by fall 7-6
127: Faith Christian by decision 10-6
133: Faith Christian by fall 16-6
139: Faith Christian by decision 19-6
145: Notre Dame by decision 19-9
152: Notre Dame by decision 19-12
160: Faith Christian by decision 22-12
172: Notre dame by decision 22-15
189: Faith Christian by fall: 28-15
215: Faith Christian by decision: 31-15
285: Notre Dame by fall: 31-21 FC
If Smith makes 107 and Botero stays at 121, I’ve got it 9-6 ND to start instead of 7-6, so that only makes up two points. They’d need LaPenna, Vaughn, and Garcia to win.
107: #10 Kole Davidheiser (23-7) vs. Tanner Berkenstock (14-7) or #4 Ayden Smith (31-3)
The first decision point where this morning’s weigh ins will make a difference. Ayden Smith has been down at 107 all year and is ranked amongst the top kids in the country at the weight. However, since District Duals, Smith has been wrestling 114, with Tanner Berkenstock down at 114. If Smith weighs in at 107, he is a solid favorite to beat Davidheiser, but Davidheiser would be a solid favorite to at least beat, if not bonus Berkenstock. If ND is going to win, Smith has to get down to 107 and beat Davidheiser.
114: Owin Brunner (8-5) or #2 Gauge Botero (30-2) vs. Tanner Berkenstock (14-7) or #4 Ayden Smith (31-3)
Here is our next real decision point. PA Power has this projected as Botero wrestling at 114 instead of 121, where he’s been all year. Berkenstock would be a solid favorite to beat Brunner, but Botero would likely pin Berkenstock. I also don’t love Smith’s chances coming up from 107 wrestling Botero who is coming down from 121. Size matters. But similarly, Smith pins Brunner if he’s here.
121: Owin Brunner (8-5) or #2 Gauge Botero (30-2) vs. #14 Cooper Feltman (16-11)
Feltman has turned himself into a really nice wrestler, highlighted by his win earlier in the year over state finalist Cole Campbell (Bethlehem catholic). But Botero pinned him in the first minute of their match at Escape the Rock. Feltman will get bonus points against Brunner if Botero goes down to 114, but it’s six for FC otherwise.
127: #11 Arment Waltenbaugh (14-4) vs. Gavyn Kelton (14-11)
Waltenbaugh beat Kelton in a wild match at Escape the Rock, 18-11. Two really talented freshman, with Waltenbaugh being more seasoned at this point in their careers.
133: #7 Mason Wagner (26-7) vs. Tanner McQueen (10-12)
Should be a fall for Faith Christian.
139: #4 Chase Hontz (27-8) vs. #13 Bryson Vaugh (22-10)
Hontz is the more talented wrestler here, Vaughn has been around the block as a senior who has been practice partners with Ryan Crookham and Brandan Chletsos and has a state medal himself. Hontz is defienitely the favorite, but if ND is going to win, they need a match like this to go their way and Vaughn as a senior might be their best bet.
145: #6 Max Stein (29-7) vs. #1 Vince Bouzakis (29-7)
One of the best matches of the dual, this was 3-2 Bouzakis at Escape the Rock. Could potentially be a state final. I will say, Bouzakis, the most controversial transfer of the offseason, has not looked like the incredible worldbeater advertised when he came in from Wyoming Seminary.
152: #8 Cael Weidemoyer (22-3) vs. #9 Keegan Ramsay (15-10)
Weidemoyer has put together an incredibly impressive freshman year and looks like a future state champ. Ramsay was a state qualifier as a freshman and has taken ten losses against a really tough schedule. This is the biggest coinflip in the dual, and again, one Notre Dame needs.
160: #5 Luke Sugalski (18-6) vs. #11 Joey LaPenna (8-4)
So this is a real hinge point of the dual. Sugalski was a state qualifier as a freshman and again is one of the superstar young upper weights for Faith Christian. LaPenna has wrestled up in weight his whole career, and even this year started up at 189 while he was coming off of a football injury and coming down in weight (he was 189 last year while weighing in in the high 160s). He’s going to be very big and strong for 160, and he can push Sugalski.
172: #1 Adam Waters (31-1) vs. #2 Holden Garcia (27-6)
This is the marquee matchup. Garcia is the returning state champion, a Princeton commit, and has been nationally ranked for most of the last two years. Waters is one of the best freshman upperweights we’ve seen. Waters really put himself on the map by beating Garcia, 3-1, in the finals at Escape the Rock. I think we’ll see this today, in the SE Regional Final, and in the State Final at 172 pounds.
189: #12 Jason Singer (20-7) vs. Connor Smalley (11-15)
Smalley has been pushed into action with the ineligibility ruling on Dominic Sumpolec. Smalley has had a nice freshman year essentially wrestling up two weights (he’s probably a 160 at this point) and a bright future, but Singer is going to win this one handily.
215: #4 Mark Effendian (28-9) vs. #12 Jared Blobe (24-8)
Another great match up, Blobe has really blossomed in the back half of his career as a good 215 pounder. Crazy strong, sound fundamentals. Effendian has a higher ceiling and is a better athlete, so if he can push pace, this should be a big win for Faith Christian.
286: Ben Mertz (1-4) vs. #3 Aiden Compton (29-8)
Compton by fall.
Here’s what I’ve got – I’m predicting Berkenstock goes 107, and we get Smith-Botero at 114.
107: Faith Christian by major 4-0
114: Faith Christian by decision 7-0
121: Notre Dame by fall 7-6
127: Faith Christian by decision 10-6
133: Faith Christian by fall 16-6
139: Faith Christian by decision 19-6
145: Notre Dame by decision 19-9
152: Notre Dame by decision 19-12
160: Faith Christian by decision 22-12
172: Notre dame by decision 22-15
189: Faith Christian by fall: 28-15
215: Faith Christian by decision: 31-15
285: Notre Dame by fall: 31-21 FC
If Smith makes 107 and Botero stays at 121, I’ve got it 9-6 ND to start instead of 7-6, so that only makes up two points. They’d need LaPenna, Vaughn, and Garcia to win.