The Finals Playoffs, by the numbers (Power Ratings)

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The Finals Playoffs, by the numbers (Power Ratings)

Exclusively the math….for better or worse! I strayed with an opinion or other info at the Note: section

6A St. Joseph’s Prep (11-1) 13.73 over Harrisburg (11-2)
St. Joe’s on top with or without St. Thomas Aquinas, Erasmus and Gonzaga stats. Other ‘quality’ opponents, St. Peters, Roman, LaSalle x 2, Northeast, Parkland and Garnet Valley still show a 2 touchdown advantage. Harrisburg’s strength on defense keeps it close. Using another model of last 4 games gives Harrisburg a 3.21 advantage.
Note: FB/MLB Mahkai Hopkins (6-1, 240, 190/1312-16 Tds) is questionable with leg. His absence would change game dramatically, almost a touchdown.

5A Imhotep Charter School (10-2) 3.35 over Pine Richland (12-3)
ICS’s schedule of McDevitt, Archbishop Spalding and Malvern Prep give ‘schedule difficulty’ edge, plus tight losses to power teams Malvern -4 and Spalding -7, and McDevitt win on neutral. Upper Dublin brought in a lot of points. Pine Richland’s numbers improved exponentially after 1-3 start and Qb Palmieri insertion to lineup, wins vs North Allegheny and Pitt CC. Strong finish against inconsistent comp (Penn Traf, Woody), USC good record vs ?? opposition.
Note: Cathedral Prep; not enough ‘locals’ for accurate read, played 7 out of state, used Clarkson North (Canada), St. Frances-NY, Solon-OH (so-so), McDowell. Hard getting a #.

4A Bishop McDevitt (12-1) 2.69 over Aliquippa (13-0)
Strong D numbers across the board vs quality, especially Aliquippa. Slight edge to McD per showing vs Imhotep and LaSalle and extreme Qb ratings off chart; 69%, 3177, 43/2 Td-Pick ratio.
Note: Beyond the stats, McD hasn’t faced a pounder/grinder since Imhotep while ICS hasn't seen a QB like Saunders including Armstrong’s Olsen G#1.

3A Belle Vernon (11-2) 1.91 over Neumann Goretti (11-3)
Neumann’s early losses to quality (Penn Charter, Bonner) plus strong finish vs Northwestern Lehigh and upset of Wyomissing were big impact plus decent D numbers. BV’s ‘near win’ to bigger schools (McKeesport, PTraf) with some of best defensive numbers in playoffs and win vs D6 (strong small schools) Central Martinsburg team.
Note: Neumann is best BV’s played since McKeesport-TJ games.

2A Westinghouse (14-0) 9.52 over Southern Columbia (12-3)
SCA lost to best on schedule (Loyalsock, Danville, Mt. Carmel) before adjustments (lineup/injuries), then off charts by 45-13avg last 4 vs Troy, MCA, Guilfoyle, Trinity (D3). Likewise Westinghouse by 41-7 vs Berlin, Central Clarion, Farrell, Steel Valley. Huge uptick beating Farrell, Steel Val.
Note: Unrelated to stats, this is new turf for Westinghouse vs a playoff warhorse.

1A Steelton Highspire (13-1) 1.04 over Union (12-3)
Offense swung it to Steelton, both with liberal D. Same team comparison (Canevin, Canton) shows similar. Rollers in high quality wins vs Northern Lehigh and Canton, Union same vs Bishop Canevin 26-0 then regression in 46-36 Port Allegany (12-2, D9) win failing to hold 28-6 and 40-14 leads, PA scoring twice in :30.
Note: Rollers have more people to keep track of but Union vs Bishop Canevin was special, the same Canevin team Steelton should have lost to except for spiking the ball on 4th down, thinking it was 3rd on Roller’s 1-yard line.
 
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