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State Finals: 6A, 5A, 4A, 3A, 2A, 1A (Dec 5, 6, 7)……..by the numbers.

Stalker

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All games are at Hershey Park Stadium

1A Thursday Dec 5th at 1
Farrell 13-2, 175.10 vs Bishop Guilfoyle 12-2, 163.52

Look whose back after a two year hiatus looking for some more gold. Bishop Guilfoyle is the 1A alpha in District-6 the last eight years with a 99-13 record and three consecutive state titles from 2014 through 2016, going 16-0 each year! No fluke, beating good stuff from Steelton Highspire, Farrell and Clairton before the 20-14 upset by Homer Center (13-2) in 2017 that ended the streak. If you’ve wondered what happened to the Altoona football program, look no farther than Bishop Guilfoyle, at least in part. This year’s group has been up and down, losing to the better teams on the schedule including Westmont Hilltop (8-4) 27-7 and Richland Township (13-1) 36-0. But they’ve put together a 7 game winning streak, getting past bitter rival Bishop McCort twice, 22-7 and 14-7, no easy task. The Crimson Crushers and Guilfoyle’ Marauders have had some epic battles over the years. With many junior players spread throughout the roster in key positions, they may be a year ahead of schedule with a pedestrian ground and pound offense at 23ppg. Keegan Myrick (6-0, 170, jr) is their featured back at 1695 yards, supported by Zach McCluskey (5-9, 170, jr) at 507 yards and freshman Cooper Rother (5-9, 150) at 566. Qb Konner Kiesewetter (6-0, 160, jr) is a dual threat with 790 passing, 456 rushing. Except for breakdowns against Westmont and Richland, the defense has been outstanding, allowing 13ppg. Their opponent is one of PA’s great programs, Farrell, the defending 1A champ. They are 71-15 the last 6 years. This will be their sixth appearance in the finals, winning gold last year, 1995 and 1996, with silver medals in 1990 and 2015. They’re here after graduating four division one athletes but returned a decent core, especially on the lines with Gary Satterwhite 6-1 295, Gary Hopson 6-0 295, Melvin Hobson 6-3 300 and Adrian Daniels 6-4 235. I believe Preston Williams is the other starter, 5-10, 240 sophomore. Anthony Stallworth (5-11 180) has 1652 yards rushing and Jaden Harrison 1014 in a predominantly running offense. Since opening losses to University Prep (8-3)14-12 and ever present Wilmington (12-1) 40-0, they won 13 straight with notable wins against Coudersport (11-1) 28-0 and Clairton (11-3) 13-10 last week. Coudy is a constant winner with Clairton being one of Pennsylvania’s winningest teams. Except for the lines that are “Harrisburg-like”, they have great speed at the expense of bulk. They can motor with a D showing 10 shutouts; 9 consecutively! Like all the great programs, they feel a state title is their birthright.
4A Thursday Dec 5th at 7
Thomas Jefferson 15-0, 212.17 vs Dallas 15-0, 191.40

Thomas Jefferson is back in the state finals following an eleven year absence after disposing of their nemesis and three time defending state champ Cathedral Prep (11-3) 28-13 in the quarterfinals. With that gorilla off their back, they advanced to the semifinal last week where they beat Lampeter Strasburg (11-4) 44-2. Earlier in the year they beat Central Valley (13-1) 28-3 who battles Wyoming Area for the 3A title Saturday. Although they haven’t been to the finals since 2008 they are yet one of the elite programs with a 121-17 record since winning States in 08. That’s an 87.6 winning percentage counting this year. Since their last championship they’ve been derailed by outstanding West Allegheny teams, and more recently by Cathedral Prep who beat them in 2015, 2016 and 2017. South Fayette (12-2) beat them last year 31-24, ruining their undefeated season and chance for another shot at Cathedral. TJ then is a machine, playing down-hill power football with a large and balanced offense (46ppg) operating behind one of the top lines in the state; LT Michael Huber (6-0, 270), RT Mac Duda (6-4, 275), LG Jacob Krawczyk (6-4, 260) RG Logan Danielson (6-1, 265) and center Nick Trainor (6-0, 210). They are veteran in the backfield at quarterback with Shane Stump (6-1, 200, sr, 2559-57%, 35/1 ratio!) and running back Dylan Mallozzi (5-11, 185, sr, 195/1707) and at receiver with Daniel Deabner (6-0, 180, sr, 47/1038). The defense allows 4ppg, holding thirteen opponents to seven points or less.
Their opponent Dallas, from District-2’s Wyoming Valley Conference Div-2 is having their best season ever, averaging 44ppg and allowing 12; holding 13 teams to two touchdowns or less. They are not as established as other D2 powers along the lines of Berwick (93-32….last 10), Dunmore (112-24), Scranton Prep (92-29) or Delaware Valley (89-32), but are competitive at 75-41. In fact, they won a 2A title in 1993 at 12-0 defeating Washington 31-7. They are a senior laden team building off the success of last year’s 11-2 season. They’ve had few challenges this year; Berwick (9-3), who they defeated 22-12 and Imhotep Charter School (8-5) 43-36 in the quarterfinals. They beat Jersey Shore (11-4) last week in the semifinal 56-28. Interesting that some writers called the win against Imhotep an upset despite Dallas building a 13 point first half lead, going on a late game winning drive, then holding off ICS on their final drive in the red zone. Quarterback Michael Starbuck completed 14 of 16 passes for 212 yards and 3 touchdowns with Lenny Kelley rushing for 128 yards and 3 scores. Strange upset. Nine of their players started since they were freshman. At 15-0 they’ve got some players with running back Kelley leading the team with 2362 yards rushing and 28 receptions for 220 yards. He had 5 touchdowns and 270 rushing last week against Jersey. Dan Meuser has 822 rushing and 24 catches for 282 yards. Michael Starbuck has thrown for 1806 yards at 62% to Luke Delgaudio (34/542), Jack Farrell (20/322) and Matt Maransky (19/488), giving them multiple weapons especially with the backs also involved. Of note, Jersey Shore’s standout quarterback Tanner Lorson (3464py, 1192ry) passed for 360 on them with two touchdowns, completing 36 of 62 passes. This could get interesting with Dallas good upfront and capable of banging heads at the LOS.

2A Friday Dec 6th at 1
Southern Columbia 16-0, 211.93 vs Avonworth 15-0, 178.03

Here’s a listing of SCA’s state titles and second place finishes over the years. They won Gold in 1994, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2015, 2017 and 2018 with runner up Silver medals in 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2011 and 2016’; enough to make your eyes cross. Their individual seasonal stat totals are as follow; Gaige Garcia, 1745 rush yards, 28 TDs; Gavin Garcia 1479yds, 26 Tds; FB Ty Roadarmel 630yds, 8 Tds; Qb Preston Zachman 328ry, 5 Tds, completing 77 of 121 at 64% for 1607 yards with a 24/6 ratio. Receiver Julian Fleming has 63 receptions for 1306 yards and 20 Tds. They’ve scored 820 points (51ppg), allowed 76 (5ppg), outscoring opponents 328 to 0 in the first quarter and 570 to 18 by the half. Since losing to Steel Valley (15-0) 49-7 in the 2016 final, they won 47 straight. That loss came against a team very much like this year’s Tiger team, scoring 806 (54ppg) points (mercy ruled all!) allowing 114 (8ppg) with a backfield headed by DeWayne Murray (Duquesne) with 2094 rushing and 46 Tds plus WR/S Paris Ford (the Pitt CC, Seton LaSalle transfer) now starting at SS for Pitt. Qb Ryan Harper completed 61% for 2081 yards with a 33/3 ratio. Awesome team! Back to SCA who blew out previously undefeated Richland (13-1, D6) 49-27, with the Rams scoring three fourth quarter touchdowns against 2nd unit troops making it appear close. It was a mercy ruled win, as all Southern’s games have been this year. Much credit should go to the defense that has 10 shutouts. 10! The great misconception about this team is that they haven’t played anyone. It’s just the opposite, with lopsided wins hiding good teams including Hammond-SC (12-2), Mt. Carmel (10-3) twice, Wyoming Area (13-1), Montoursville (12-2), Upper Dauphin (12-1) and Richland (14-1), teams with a combined 83-13 slate defeated by an average score of 46-6.
Avonworth is a veteran team that surprised many replacing quarterback Derek Jogncour’s 2696 yards (24 Tds) as effectively as they have with Park Penrod (6-3, 210, sr), who has thrown for 1909 yards at 53% with a 27/8 ratio. The Antelopes or Lopes as they’re called will mix it up but prefer pounding it with Jax Miller (6-1, 190, sr) running for 2332 yards. Jordan Rapp, Theo Newhouse and Kyros Thorpe (Pitt CC transfer) are their principal receivers with 194, 533 and 520 yards respectively. They average 36ppg and allow 11, making defense their strong suit. The line must be getting it done with some studs in Ryan Paskiewicz (6-2, 285), Kevin Fleter (6-3, 310) and Josh Elm (6-2, 275). Hard arguing 15-0 with wins against McGuffey (9-3) 34-20 who beat 11-3 Clairton (just eliminated by Farrell 13-10), Washington (13-1) 28-6 who seemed like a team of destiny, and District-10 perennial power Wilmington (12-1) 33-21. Always nice taking down the Hounds who believe they own the thing. And why not, winning Silver the first year of the playoffs in 1988 losing to Bethlehem Catholic 26-11, Gold in 2008 beating West Catholic 35-34 in double ot, a game many on the board remember, then runner up Silver medals the last two years losing to Southern Columbia. The WPIAL champ Lopes have never been to a PIAA playoff game before this year and look to be way overmatched here, especially along the lines.
5A Friday Dec 6th at 7
Archbishop Wood 10-3, 192.46 vs Cheltenham 14-1, 181.05

Archbishop Wood will go for their seventh title in the last twelve years against Cheltenham after defeating Gateway on a 25 yard field goal in the last three seconds of the game. Gateway came in as the favorite despite concerns manifested in all their playoff games. It took a fourth quarter rally from a 21-21 tie to escape the upset against Shaler (5-7), winning 35-21. Shaler!! The following week saw them edge McKeesport (9-4) 14-7, after being down 7-0 at the half. This is a team that came in averaging 36ppg, held scoreless for a half? It took two fourth down stops deep in their territory at the 20 yard line in the closing moments to seal that one. And finally in the WPIAL title game against Peters Township (12-2), after taking a 21-10 lead in the 3rd quarter, they had to fight off a late charge with the offense again disappearing, held scoreless the final twenty minutes of the game to ease past PT 21-20 win. Star running back Derrick Davis went down and out in the third quarter and also missed the game against Wood. It all seemed to catch up to them against Archbishop Wood at Altoona’s Mansion Park where they lost four of six fumbles, were penalized ten times of which three negated touchdowns, saw their quarterback sacked nine times and had no clue how to stop Kaelin Costello who gashed them for 240 rush yards. He broke a few big ones, going 73 and 95 yards for scores. Wood’s only score of the second half was the game winner when Robert Meyers kicked a 25 yard field goal with three seconds left on the clock. What a great year knowing it was almost a total rebuild graduating Qb Jack Colyar with major losses along the lines including C/DT Luke Stengel (6-4, 260), OT/DT Connor Bishop (6-3, 265), OG/DL Nick Vitelli (6-3, 245), OT/DT John Prieto (5-11,220), OT Sean Buck (6-2, 235), Brett Gross (5-11, 225) and Bill Cook (6-2, 220). But like Garnet Valley, they replace quality lineman consistently. They move on to the final in Chocolate Town where they must feel at home having won Gold medals in 2011, 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2017, with runner up Silver medals in 2008 and 2012. Near misses last year and in 2015 prevented their being here nine consecutive years. 2009’s 11-2 team and 2010’s 13-1 squad weren’t far off the mark either.
Up next is a game with neighboring Cheltenham High. It’s a special game getting a District 1 – District 12 final of teams a mere ten miles apart! Another first is the District-1 5A title for Cheltenham and a school record number of wins that broke the 2001 record of 10-3. They also had a ten win season in 2003 going 10-2. This year’s offense is breaking most if not all school records averaging 38ppg. Improvement was anticipated from last year’s anemic offense that averaged 18ppg, but probably not this significant by the staff. A look at their roster says it was fueled with the return of many starters from last year….and all their key skill people for the last three years including quarterback Adonis Hunter (broke school passing yardage record), running backs Jamir Barnes (+1000 last 2 yrs, 1238 this year), Siddiq Williams (388ry, 130py), Sam Sykes (470) and wide out TJ Harris (716). Qb Adonis Hunter is having a great year completing 55% for 2133 yards with a ratio of 26/6. Many from the defense returned as foundation for their lowest D-yield at 16ppg since 2003’s 10-2 team that allowed 11ppg. Compared to Archbishop Wood, they’re at the opposite end of the playoff spectrum with no appearances in the PIAA playoffs except last year, beating West Chester East 28-21 in the first round, followed by a 27-0 loss to Upper Dublin. But they fed off that experience, the return of a solid core of players and the momentum from their first winning season since 2012. Since losing to rival Abington 19-7, they won eleven straight against a regular season schedule that provided little competition, playing two winning teams out of ten with a combined record of 44-65! The loss to Abington compounded when the Ghosts suffered non-competitive losses to Central Bucks West 45-28 and Plymouth Whitemarsh 56-42. Cheltenham’s only quality win of the regular season, 28-24 over Whitemarsh, diminished with the Colonials being blown off the field at Garnet Valley 56-21. In the postseason they defeated Springfield (3-8) 41-7 of the Central League, followed by wins against Ches Mont-American teams Unionville (6-5) 35-21 and Kennett (11-2) 42-20. They beat Academy Park (11-3) 43-42 (lost to Chester) in the quarterfinal then Cocalico (11-3) 56-49 in last week’s semifinal shootout in Hershey where they play Friday. Looking at schedule difficulty says Wood played a more difficult schedule especially with tight wins against LaSalle and Gateway. Cheltenham has not played a team near the caliber of those two. That, added to their abundant playoff experience at the highest levels suggests Wood is better prepared to manage the pressure packed stress reality of a PIAA State Final than Cheltenham. Hard seeing a blowout with the quick striking skill and speed Cheltenham has unless they are in fact blinding by the spotlight that Archbishop Wood knows so well.

3A Saturday Dec 7th at 12
Central Valley 13-1, 179.87 vs Wyoming Area 13-1, 178.60

Monaca’s Central Valley is making their second appearance in the state final after pummeling Bald Eagle Area (11-4) of District-6, 45-0. BEA has done that a few times this year, gone bottom up in losses to PennsValley (10-2) 42-7, Bellefonte (9-3) 38-0 and Jersey Shore (11-4) 42-0. Central Valley’s other appearance in the final was in 2014, losing to Archbishop Wood 33-14. But their conference, the Tri County West of District-7 is on fire, producing the last three state champions in Beaver Falls, Quaker Valley and Aliquippa last year. CVHS is the result of a Center-Monaca merger in 2010 where they have since been on fire, recording eight straight winning seasons (3 WPIAL titles) before last year’s 5-6 outing. Counting this year, they are 98-28 and one of the top Triple-A programs in the state. This year’s team is playing with a vengeance following their first losing season in the school’s history. They are a quick strike offense powered by dual threat quarterback Ameer Dudley (6-1, 180) who passed for 1844 yards (60%, 23/4) and rushed for 584. He is elusive and slippery on vids; impressive! Bald Eagle head coach Jesse Nagle says he avoided at least five sacks after they had him wrapped and broke another seven tackles. Jaylon Guy has 1244 yards rushing with Jawon Hall leading the receiver corps with 761 yards on 28 receptions. It’s big stuff at 39ppg with a superior defense allowing 11ppg! They had a close call two weeks ago getting past defending state champion Aliquippa (11-2, Quips only losses) 13-12 in overtime. The only loss was against Thomas Jefferson (15-0) 28-3, who battles Dallas Thursday for the 4A crown.
Opposite them is Wyoming Area who comes in on a six game winning streak that includes four shutouts and a 21-0 shutdown of Tamaqua (12-3) last week. The Warriors (same mascot as CV) resemble Central Valley in scoring and defense at 38ppg while allowing 11. They play out of the Wyoming Valley-2 Conference in District-2. Unlike CV who has had almost constant success, WA has found it more recently, going 11-1 last year and 13-1 this year, with a 71-44 record the last ten years and six winning seasons. They are a senior laden team (5 four year starters) with dual threat Dominic DeLuca at quarterback. He passed for 1482 yards and ran for 966 yards! At 6-1 195, he’s a fierce hitter at as a runner or SS and a bona fide leader on the field. His top target is Brian Williams with 762 yards. Darren Rodney is the lead back with 1010 yards. They have a division one prospect in Sam Solomon (6-4, 295, sr), with offers from BC, Temple, Rutgers. He’s part of a strong and sizeable line that has protected well. The lone loss was at home to Southern Columbia 42-0. Otherwise, their only competitive games were against Montoursville (12-2), 43-27 and Tamaqua 21-0, their fifth shutout of the year. This looks like an exciting, competitive game featuring two dual threat quarterbacks, and a game of contrasting styles with CV the more athletic quick striking team against the more physical, methodical team from Exeter.
6A Saturday Dec 7th at 6
St. Joseph’s Prep 11-2, 225.62 vs Central Dauphin 12-2, 223.99

Defending 6A champion St. Joseph’s Prep is here for the fourth straight year, winning state titles in 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2018 with a Silver runner up medal in 2017. What stands out beyond their consistency and excellence on the field is 2015. What happened? This is a program with a current record of 91-13 since 2012. What happened was LaSalle quarterback Joe Ferguson somehow connected with Nick Rinella who was surrounded in the end zone by three Hawk defenders to snag the winning touchdown with 49 seconds left in the game. This, after St. Joe’s routed the Explorers 49-14 in the regular season. Barring that, St. Joe’s would be making their seventh consecutive appearance in the state final.
Last week saw the Hawks rally from a 24-17 deficit to force overtime when Malik Cooper threw a 12 yard touchdown to Marvin Harrison Jr with 15 seconds left in regulation on a fourth and 10 play. What a spectacular leaping catch by the 6-4 Harrison; back of the end zone, getting his left foot down falling backwards across the end line. The Hawks managed deficits the entire game, responding to 3-0, 10-7, and the 24-17 deficit at the end of regulation. You know the Vikings had to be feeling good when running back Eddy Tillman broke one from 19 yards out to take a 24-17 lead with 2:46 left in the game. In overtime Malik got strung out running to his left but made the corner to score on a 5 yard keeper and take the lead, followed by sophomore Keenan Nelson picking off a Dom Pietro pass to secure the 31-24 win. A couple things; Qb Dom Pietro was able to lead Catholic on four scoring drives and seemed at time under little pressure. He completed only 9 of 21 passes and threw two picks to one touchdown. The nine completions went for 142 yards. Eddy Tillman rushed for 142 yards on 24 carries, giving them 220 yards rushing with Pietro’s 78. Fortunately, receiver turned quarterback Malik Cooper had an All-Star performance, completing 21 of 24 passes for 258 yards while throwing a 12 yard touchdown to Harrison and running for 37 and 5 yard scores. And no one could stop Marvin Harrison Jr, pulling down 8 receptions for 136 yards. Sahmir Hagans had a 12 yard scoring reception with Antonio Chadha booting a 26 yard field goal in the second quarter. Where is Kolbe Burrell?
For Central Dauphin, please see the Mid State Rankings-Week 15 in an earlier post (below) that has a game summary of the 65-44 win against Downingtown West. In that game, the Rams showed a balanced and multiple attack, one that could keep the Hawk’s defense guessing covering their division one receiver Nick Chimiente (58/1084) and TE Jackson Talbott (12/278), running backs Timmy Smith (180/1277, 24/252) and Elijah Vargas (43/318), quarterback Max Mosey (1984, 63%, 14/3, 68-234ry) and others. If Central Catholic’s offense can raise havoc with their defense so can Central Dauphin’s. They score on average 33ppg. It’s on defense where they shine, allowing 15ppg. They have a damaging ground game with a confident, albeit young quarterback who makes smart decisions, doesn’t panic, runs well, throws accurately with velocity and is a leader despite his youth. Team scoring involves all aspects of the game, particularly special teams. More recently, they’ve been able to go on sustained drives with the maturity under center and of course their excellent offensive line. Coming from the Mid Penn-Commonwealth they are more tested than any team St. Joe’s has played recently. Like Central Catholic, they come with a confidence that borders on and may be swagger, not cockiness. And like St. Joe's, they approach the game believing they’ll win. I like CD, although the math says its the Hawks in a tight one.
 
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Great write up. Very in depth and well written.

I think CD should be favored in this game in all honesty. With the amount of travel and lack of bye weeks and the injuries piling up for SJP it will take a gutsy performance for them to pull out the win. All credit to CD's coaching staff keeping the pedal down all year.
 
Stalk... great stuff as usual. Quick question.... how close are your math numbers and actual on the field game scores over the course of the year? I know you dont just pluck these numbers out of thin air. Curious to how close the final margins get compared to what the math says
 
This TJ team is a machine, they are destroying 15-0 Dallas 46-7 late in the 4th. I looked at the Dallas schedule and they rolled everyone except for Imhotep. Is there a reason the starting QB is still in the game for TJ?
 
All games are at Hershey Park Stadium

1A Thursday Dec 5th at 1
Farrell 13-2, 175.10 vs Bishop Guilfoyle 12-2, 163.52

Look whose back after a two year hiatus looking for some more gold. Bishop Guilfoyle is the 1A alpha in District-6 the last eight years with a 99-13 record and three consecutive state titles from 2014 through 2016, going 16-0 each year! No fluke, beating good stuff from Steelton Highspire, Farrell and Clairton before the 20-14 upset by Homer Center (13-2) in 2017 that ended the streak. If you’ve wondered what happened to the Altoona football program, look no farther than Bishop Guilfoyle, at least in part. This year’s group has been up and down, losing to the better teams on the schedule including Westmont Hilltop (8-4) 27-7 and Richland Township (13-1) 36-0. But they’ve put together a 7 game winning streak, getting past bitter rival Bishop McCort twice, 22-7 and 14-7, no easy task. The Crimson Crushers and Guilfoyle’ Marauders have had some epic battles over the years. With many junior players spread throughout the roster in key positions, they may be a year ahead of schedule with a pedestrian ground and pound offense at 23ppg. Keegan Myrick (6-0, 170, jr) is their featured back at 1695 yards, supported by Zach McCluskey (5-9, 170, jr) at 507 yards and freshman Cooper Rother (5-9, 150) at 566. Qb Konner Kiesewetter (6-0, 160, jr) is a dual threat with 790 passing, 456 rushing. Except for breakdowns against Westmont and Richland, the defense has been outstanding, allowing 13ppg. Their opponent is one of PA’s great programs, Farrell, the defending 1A champ. They are 71-15 the last 6 years. This will be their sixth appearance in the finals, winning gold last year, 1995 and 1996, with silver medals in 1990 and 2015. They’re here after graduating four division one athletes but returned a decent core, especially on the lines with Gary Satterwhite 6-1 295, Gary Hopson 6-0 295, Melvin Hobson 6-3 300 and Adrian Daniels 6-4 235. I believe Preston Williams is the other starter, 5-10, 240 sophomore. Anthony Stallworth (5-11 180) has 1652 yards rushing and Jaden Harrison 1014 in a predominantly running offense. Since opening losses to University Prep (8-3)14-12 and ever present Wilmington (12-1) 40-0, they won 13 straight with notable wins against Coudersport (11-1) 28-0 and Clairton (11-3) 13-10 last week. Coudy is a constant winner with Clairton being one of Pennsylvania’s winningest teams. Except for the lines that are “Harrisburg-like”, they have great speed at the expense of bulk. They can motor with a D showing 10 shutouts; 9 consecutively! Like all the great programs, they feel a state title is their birthright.
4A Thursday Dec 5th at 7
Thomas Jefferson 15-0, 212.17 vs Dallas 15-0, 191.40

Thomas Jefferson is back in the state finals following an eleven year absence after disposing of their nemesis and three time defending state champ Cathedral Prep (11-3) 28-13 in the quarterfinals. With that gorilla off their back, they advanced to the semifinal last week where they beat Lampeter Strasburg (11-4) 44-2. Earlier in the year they beat Central Valley (13-1) 28-3 who battles Wyoming Area for the 3A title Saturday. Although they haven’t been to the finals since 2008 they are yet one of the elite programs with a 121-17 record since winning States in 08. That’s an 87.6 winning percentage counting this year. Since their last championship they’ve been derailed by outstanding West Allegheny teams, and more recently by Cathedral Prep who beat them in 2015, 2016 and 2017. South Fayette (12-2) beat them last year 31-24, ruining their undefeated season and chance for another shot at Cathedral. TJ then is a machine, playing down-hill power football with a large and balanced offense (46ppg) operating behind one of the top lines in the state; LT Michael Huber (6-0, 270), RT Mac Duda (6-4, 275), LG Jacob Krawczyk (6-4, 260) RG Logan Danielson (6-1, 265) and center Nick Trainor (6-0, 210). They are veteran in the backfield at quarterback with Shane Stump (6-1, 200, sr, 2559-57%, 35/1 ratio!) and running back Dylan Mallozzi (5-11, 185, sr, 195/1707) and at receiver with Daniel Deabner (6-0, 180, sr, 47/1038). The defense allows 4ppg, holding thirteen opponents to seven points or less.
Their opponent Dallas, from District-2’s Wyoming Valley Conference Div-2 is having their best season ever, averaging 44ppg and allowing 12; holding 13 teams to two touchdowns or less. They are not as established as other D2 powers along the lines of Berwick (93-32….last 10), Dunmore (112-24), Scranton Prep (92-29) or Delaware Valley (89-32), but are competitive at 75-41. In fact, they won a 2A title in 1993 at 12-0 defeating Washington 31-7. They are a senior laden team building off the success of last year’s 11-2 season. They’ve had few challenges this year; Berwick (9-3), who they defeated 22-12 and Imhotep Charter School (8-5) 43-36 in the quarterfinals. They beat Jersey Shore (11-4) last week in the semifinal 56-28. Interesting that some writers called the win against Imhotep an upset despite Dallas building a 13 point first half lead, going on a late game winning drive, then holding off ICS on their final drive in the red zone. Quarterback Michael Starbuck completed 14 of 16 passes for 212 yards and 3 touchdowns with Lenny Kelley rushing for 128 yards and 3 scores. Strange upset. Nine of their players started since they were freshman. At 15-0 they’ve got some players with running back Kelley leading the team with 2362 yards rushing and 28 receptions for 220 yards. He had 5 touchdowns and 270 rushing last week against Jersey. Dan Meuser has 822 rushing and 24 catches for 282 yards. Michael Starbuck has thrown for 1806 yards at 62% to Luke Delgaudio (34/542), Jack Farrell (20/322) and Matt Maransky (19/488), giving them multiple weapons especially with the backs also involved. Of note, Jersey Shore’s standout quarterback Tanner Lorson (3464py, 1192ry) passed for 360 on them with two touchdowns, completing 36 of 62 passes. This could get interesting with Dallas good upfront and capable of banging heads at the LOS.

2A Friday Dec 6th at 1
Southern Columbia 16-0, 211.93 vs Avonworth 15-0, 178.03

Here’s a listing of SCA’s state titles and second place finishes over the years. They won Gold in 1994, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2015, 2017 and 2018 with runner up Silver medals in 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2011 and 2016’; enough to make your eyes cross. Their individual seasonal stat totals are as follow; Gaige Garcia, 1745 rush yards, 28 TDs; Gavin Garcia 1479yds, 26 Tds; FB Ty Roadarmel 630yds, 8 Tds; Qb Preston Zachman 328ry, 5 Tds, completing 77 of 121 at 64% for 1607 yards with a 24/6 ratio. Receiver Julian Fleming has 63 receptions for 1306 yards and 20 Tds. They’ve scored 820 points (51ppg), allowed 76 (5ppg), outscoring opponents 328 to 0 in the first quarter and 570 to 18 by the half. Since losing to Steel Valley (15-0) 49-7 in the 2016 final, they won 47 straight. That loss came against a team very much like this year’s Tiger team, scoring 806 (54ppg) points (mercy ruled all!) allowing 114 (8ppg) with a backfield headed by DeWayne Murray (Duquesne) with 2094 rushing and 46 Tds plus WR/S Paris Ford (the Pitt CC, Seton LaSalle transfer) now starting at SS for Pitt. Qb Ryan Harper completed 61% for 2081 yards with a 33/3 ratio. Awesome team! Back to SCA who blew out previously undefeated Richland (13-1, D6) 49-27, with the Rams scoring three fourth quarter touchdowns against 2nd unit troops making it appear close. It was a mercy ruled win, as all Southern’s games have been this year. Much credit should go to the defense that has 10 shutouts. 10! The great misconception about this team is that they haven’t played anyone. It’s just the opposite, with lopsided wins hiding good teams including Hammond-SC (12-2), Mt. Carmel (10-3) twice, Wyoming Area (13-1), Montoursville (12-2), Upper Dauphin (12-1) and Richland (14-1), teams with a combined 83-13 slate defeated by an average score of 46-6.
Avonworth is a veteran team that surprised many replacing quarterback Derek Jogncour’s 2696 yards (24 Tds) as effectively as they have with Park Penrod (6-3, 210, sr), who has thrown for 1909 yards at 53% with a 27/8 ratio. The Antelopes or Lopes as they’re called will mix it up but prefer pounding it with Jax Miller (6-1, 190, sr) running for 2332 yards. Jordan Rapp, Theo Newhouse and Kyros Thorpe (Pitt CC transfer) are their principal receivers with 194, 533 and 520 yards respectively. They average 36ppg and allow 11, making defense their strong suit. The line must be getting it done with some studs in Ryan Paskiewicz (6-2, 285), Kevin Fleter (6-3, 310) and Josh Elm (6-2, 275). Hard arguing 15-0 with wins against McGuffey (9-3) 34-20 who beat 11-3 Clairton (just eliminated by Farrell 13-10), Washington (13-1) 28-6 who seemed like a team of destiny, and District-10 perennial power Wilmington (12-1) 33-21. Always nice taking down the Hounds who believe they own the thing. And why not, winning Silver the first year of the playoffs in 1988 losing to Bethlehem Catholic 26-11, Gold in 2008 beating West Catholic 35-34 in double ot, a game many on the board remember, then runner up Silver medals the last two years losing to Southern Columbia. The WPIAL champ Lopes have never been to a PIAA playoff game before this year and look to be way overmatched here, especially along the lines.
5A Friday Dec 6th at 7
Archbishop Wood 10-3, 192.46 vs Cheltenham 14-1, 181.05

Archbishop Wood will go for their seventh title in the last twelve years against Cheltenham after defeating Gateway on a 25 yard field goal in the last three seconds of the game. Gateway came in as the favorite despite concerns manifested in all their playoff games. It took a fourth quarter rally from a 21-21 tie to escape the upset against Shaler (5-7), winning 35-21. Shaler!! The following week saw them edge McKeesport (9-4) 14-7, after being down 7-0 at the half. This is a team that came in averaging 36ppg, held scoreless for a half? It took two fourth down stops deep in their territory at the 20 yard line in the closing moments to seal that one. And finally in the WPIAL title game against Peters Township (12-2), after taking a 21-10 lead in the 3rd quarter, they had to fight off a late charge with the offense again disappearing, held scoreless the final twenty minutes of the game to ease past PT 21-20 win. Star running back Derrick Davis went down and out in the third quarter and also missed the game against Wood. It all seemed to catch up to them against Archbishop Wood at Altoona’s Mansion Park where they lost four of six fumbles, were penalized ten times of which three negated touchdowns, saw their quarterback sacked nine times and had no clue how to stop Kaelin Costello who gashed them for 240 rush yards. He broke a few big ones, going 73 and 95 yards for scores. Wood’s only score of the second half was the game winner when Robert Meyers kicked a 25 yard field goal with three seconds left on the clock. What a great year knowing it was almost a total rebuild graduating Qb Jack Colyar with major losses along the lines including C/DT Luke Stengel (6-4, 260), OT/DT Connor Bishop (6-3, 265), OG/DL Nick Vitelli (6-3, 245), OT/DT John Prieto (5-11,220), OT Sean Buck (6-2, 235), Brett Gross (5-11, 225) and Bill Cook (6-2, 220). But like Garnet Valley, they replace quality lineman consistently. They move on to the final in Chocolate Town where they must feel at home having won Gold medals in 2011, 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2017, with runner up Silver medals in 2008 and 2012. Near misses last year and in 2015 prevented their being here nine consecutive years. 2009’s 11-2 team and 2010’s 13-1 squad weren’t far off the mark either.
Up next is a game with neighboring Cheltenham High. It’s a special game getting a District 1 – District 12 final of teams a mere ten miles apart! Another first is the District-1 5A title for Cheltenham and a school record number of wins that broke the 2001 record of 10-3. They also had a ten win season in 2003 going 10-2. This year’s offense is breaking most if not all school records averaging 38ppg. Improvement was anticipated from last year’s anemic offense that averaged 18ppg, but probably not this significant by the staff. A look at their roster says it was fueled with the return of many starters from last year….and all their key skill people for the last three years including quarterback Adonis Hunter (broke school passing yardage record), running backs Jamir Barnes (+1000 last 2 yrs, 1238 this year), Siddiq Williams (388ry, 130py), Sam Sykes (470) and wide out TJ Harris (716). Qb Adonis Hunter is having a great year completing 55% for 2133 yards with a ratio of 26/6. Many from the defense returned as foundation for their lowest D-yield at 16ppg since 2003’s 10-2 team that allowed 11ppg. Compared to Archbishop Wood, they’re at the opposite end of the playoff spectrum with no appearances in the PIAA playoffs except last year, beating West Chester East 28-21 in the first round, followed by a 27-0 loss to Upper Dublin. But they fed off that experience, the return of a solid core of players and the momentum from their first winning season since 2012. Since losing to rival Abington 19-7, they won eleven straight against a regular season schedule that provided little competition, playing two winning teams out of ten with a combined record of 44-65! The loss to Abington compounded when the Ghosts suffered non-competitive losses to Central Bucks West 45-28 and Plymouth Whitemarsh 56-42. Cheltenham’s only quality win of the regular season, 28-24 over Whitemarsh, diminished with the Colonials being blown off the field at Garnet Valley 56-21. In the postseason they defeated Springfield (3-8) 41-7 of the Central League, followed by wins against Ches Mont-American teams Unionville (6-5) 35-21 and Kennett (11-2) 42-20. They beat Academy Park (11-3) 43-42 (lost to Chester) in the quarterfinal then Cocalico (11-3) 56-49 in last week’s semifinal shootout in Hershey where they play Friday. Looking at schedule difficulty says Wood played a more difficult schedule especially with tight wins against LaSalle and Gateway. Cheltenham has not played a team near the caliber of those two. That, added to their abundant playoff experience at the highest levels suggests Wood is better prepared to manage the pressure packed stress reality of a PIAA State Final than Cheltenham. Hard seeing a blowout with the quick striking skill and speed Cheltenham has unless they are in fact blinding by the spotlight that Archbishop Wood knows so well.

3A Saturday Dec 7th at 12
Central Valley 13-1, 179.87 vs Wyoming Area 13-1, 178.60

Monaca’s Central Valley is making their second appearance in the state final after pummeling Bald Eagle Area (11-4) of District-6, 45-0. BEA has done that a few times this year, gone bottom up in losses to PennsValley (10-2) 42-7, Bellefonte (9-3) 38-0 and Jersey Shore (11-4) 42-0. Central Valley’s other appearance in the final was in 2014, losing to Archbishop Wood 33-14. But their conference, the Tri County West of District-7 is on fire, producing the last three state champions in Beaver Falls, Quaker Valley and Aliquippa last year. CVHS is the result of a Center-Monaca merger in 2010 where they have since been on fire, recording eight straight winning seasons (3 WPIAL titles) before last year’s 5-6 outing. Counting this year, they are 98-28 and one of the top Triple-A programs in the state. This year’s team is playing with a vengeance following their first losing season in the school’s history. They are a quick strike offense powered by dual threat quarterback Ameer Dudley (6-1, 180) who passed for 1844 yards (60%, 23/4) and rushed for 584. He is elusive and slippery on vids; impressive! Bald Eagle head coach Jesse Nagle says he avoided at least five sacks after they had him wrapped and broke another seven tackles. Jaylon Guy has 1244 yards rushing with Jawon Hall leading the receiver corps with 761 yards on 28 receptions. It’s big stuff at 39ppg with a superior defense allowing 11ppg! They had a close call two weeks ago getting past defending state champion Aliquippa (11-2, Quips only losses) 13-12 in overtime. The only loss was against Thomas Jefferson (15-0) 28-3, who battles Dallas Thursday for the 4A crown.
Opposite them is Wyoming Area who comes in on a six game winning streak that includes four shutouts and a 21-0 shutdown of Tamaqua (12-3) last week. The Warriors (same mascot as CV) resemble Central Valley in scoring and defense at 38ppg while allowing 11. They play out of the Wyoming Valley-2 Conference in District-2. Unlike CV who has had almost constant success, WA has found it more recently, going 11-1 last year and 13-1 this year, with a 71-44 record the last ten years and six winning seasons. They are a senior laden team (5 four year starters) with dual threat Dominic DeLuca at quarterback. He passed for 1482 yards and ran for 966 yards! At 6-1 195, he’s a fierce hitter at as a runner or SS and a bona fide leader on the field. His top target is Brian Williams with 762 yards. Darren Rodney is the lead back with 1010 yards. They have a division one prospect in Sam Solomon (6-4, 295, sr), with offers from BC, Temple, Rutgers. He’s part of a strong and sizeable line that has protected well. The lone loss was at home to Southern Columbia 42-0. Otherwise, their only competitive games were against Montoursville (12-2), 43-27 and Tamaqua 21-0, their fifth shutout of the year. This looks like an exciting, competitive game featuring two dual threat quarterbacks, and a game of contrasting styles with CV the more athletic quick striking team against the more physical, methodical team from Exeter.
6A Saturday Dec 7th at 6
St. Joseph’s Prep 11-2, 225.62 vs Central Dauphin 12-2, 223.99

Defending 6A champion St. Joseph’s Prep is here for the fourth straight year, winning state titles in 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2018 with a Silver runner up medal in 2017. What stands out beyond their consistency and excellence on the field is 2015. What happened? This is a program with a current record of 91-13 since 2012. What happened was LaSalle quarterback Joe Ferguson somehow connected with Nick Rinella who was surrounded in the end zone by three Hawk defenders to snag the winning touchdown with 49 seconds left in the game. This, after St. Joe’s routed the Explorers 49-14 in the regular season. Barring that, St. Joe’s would be making their seventh consecutive appearance in the 6A final.
Last week saw the Hawks rally from a 24-17 deficit to force overtime when Malik Cooper threw a 12 yard touchdown to Melvin Williams Jr with 15 seconds left in regulation on a fourth and 10 play. What a spectacular leaping catch by the 6-4 Williams; back of the end zone, getting his left foot down falling backwards across the end line. The Hawks managed deficits the entire game, responding to 3-0, 10-7, and the 24-17 deficit at the end of regulation. You know the Vikings had to be feeling good when running back Eddy Tillman broke one from 19 yards out to take a 24-17 lead with 2:46 left in the game. In overtime Malik got strung out running to his left but made the corner to score on a 5 yard keeper and take the lead, followed by sophomore Keenan Nelson picking off a Dom Pietro pass to secure the 31-24 win. A couple things; Qb Dom Pietro was able to lead Catholic on four scoring drives and seemed at time under little pressure. He completed only 9 of 21 passes and threw two picks to one touchdown. The nine completions went for 142 yards. Eddy Tillman rushed for 142 yards on 24 carries, giving them 220 yards rushing with Pietro’s 78. Fortunately, receiver turned quarterback Malik Cooper had an All-Star performance, completing 21 of 24 passes for 258 yards while throwing a 12 yard touchdown to Harrison and running for 37 and 5 yard scores. And no one could stop Marvin Harrison-Jr, pulling down 8 receptions for 136 yards. Sahmir Hagans had a 12 yard scoring reception with Antonio Chadha booting a 26 yard field goal in the second quarter. Where is Kolbe Burrell?
For Central Dauphin, please see the Mid State Rankings-Week 15 in an earlier post (below) that has a game summary of the 65-44 win against Downingtown West. In that game, the Rams showed a balanced and multiple attack, one that could keep the Hawk’s defense guessing covering their division one receiver Nick Chimiente (58/1084) and TE Jackson Talbott (12/278), running backs Timmy Smith (180/1277, 24/252) and Elijah Vargas (43/318), quarterback Max Mosey (1984, 63%, 14/3, 68-234ry) and others. If Central Catholic’s offense can raise havoc with their defense so can Central Dauphin’s. They score on average 33ppg. It’s on defense where they shine, allowing 15ppg. They have a damaging ground game with a confident, albeit young quarterback who makes smart decisions, doesn’t panic, runs well, throws accurately with velocity and is a leader despite his youth. Team scoring involves all aspects of the game, particularly special teams. More recently, they’ve been able to go on sustained drives with the maturity under center and of course their excellent offensive line. Coming from the Mid Penn-Commonwealth they are more tested than any team St. Joe’s has played recently. Like Central Catholic, they come with a confidence that borders on and may be swagger, not cockiness. And like St. Joe's they approach the game believing they’ll win. I like CD, although the math says its the Hawks in a tight one.
Stalker, Thanks for all the work behind these write-ups. One thing in the SJP section: Marvin Harrison Jr. is misnamed a few times.

In the 6A final we're sure Trotter won't play and almost sure McCord won't play. You asked about Burrell. I know he was injured around the end of the first quarter of last week's game. He returned after getting some treatment but was much less effective than usual. If he's not near 100% it'll be a blow. Same with respect to Leneghan. He's the anchor of their D-line. His absence made a difference last week and will this week too if he can't play. And remember that Rightley made two interceptions in last year's final. They could certainly use him in the defensive backfield. I expect the game to be close.
 
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Stalk... great stuff as usual. Quick question.... how close are your math numbers and actual on the field game scores over the course of the year? I know you dont just pluck these numbers out of thin air. Curious to how close the final margins get compared to what the math says

Newport, it’s a measurement that is reasonably accurate on a straight up won/loss basis only. Doesn’t predict the score. I throw a number of stats together, H/A values, PF/PA, yards---rush, pass, allowed, etc….pretty straight forward stuff. The only place I plug me in, meaning subjectivity is assigning values to teams attempting to measure schedule difficulty….eg; Neshaminy-Roman may be a 7, Perk Val-Spg Fd 9, LaSalle-ICS 13, Coats-Hburg 16, SJPrep-PittCC 19.
I started posting them here Oct 31 for local playoffs D1 6A, then D1/D12 semi, PIAA quarters and Finals. It was more a forum to get information out than the numbers which I thought might make it more interesting.

D1 6A 1st rd 7-1
D1 6A 2nd rd 4-0
D1/D12 Semi 2-1
PIAA Qtrs 2-1
PIAA Finals 2-0 with Farrell and TJ win
Playoff Totals 17-3
 
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Stalker, Thanks for all the work behind these write-ups. One thing in the SJP section: Marvin Harrison Jr. is misnamed a few times.

In the 6A final we're sure Trotter won't play and almost sure McCord won't play. You asked about Burrell. I know he was injured around the end of the first quarter of last week's game. He returned after getting some treatment but was much less effective than usual. If he's not near 100% it'll be a blow. Same with respect to Leneghan. He's the anchor of their D-line. His absence made a difference last week and will this week too if he can't play. And remember that Rightley made two interceptions in last year's final. They could certainly use him in the defensive backfield. I expect the game to be close.
Thanks tulla for the corrections and update on KB. Believe I was seeing double maybe triple when I got to SJ-CD! I hope those guys play and recover fully. And this does look like a tight one, probably down to the wire. The Hawks travel well and they'll likely be a decent size Mid Penn crowd too.
 
Stalker numbers have been amazingly accurate. Unbelievable this year and really good over number of years. His formula and analysis are fantastic. Kudos to a great job. If ever the HS market were legal(obviously joking, terrible premise) fairly certain we could have him a job down here in Delco in a legal book in about a day and a half.
 
PA1127, Newport, tulla, Gang $$ Green. Thank you for the words, and it's my pleasure. CD and SJ take center stage but don't miss Cent Val-WA tomorrow that could be a great one with two outstanding dual threat Qbs. Dudley for CV is a show and DeLuca is a powerful less elusive runner. Good games!
 
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D10, D4, D2, D7, D12, D12

Four of the 6 titles are from Eastern PA. Guess Western PA didn't "invent" football like they always seem to believe and tell everyone.
 
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