I think by the end of the year they're pretty accurate - they phase out data from the previous year over the course of the season, so at the beginning of the year they are really skewed. I don't think they're worth looking at until closer to playoff time, but then I think you can make some good assumptions from them.
Newport and Rover. In my rush to respond to Newport on rankings I messed up, forgetting to factor in AB Wood, Carlisle and I also miscalculated North Allegheny. Here’s some of the info/numbers used for the tabulations on those 3 plus a few more making it a Top 25.
** AB Wood (5-5). Had a win v Neumann Goretti (13-2) 28-6 and a competitive loss to St. Joe’s 17-14 in playoffs. Otherwise they lost to quality opponents by a combined score of 117-20; Malvern (8-2) 21-0, St. Johns (11-0) 38-0, SJP (11-3) 38-20 (regular season) and LaSalle (9-2) 20-0. All others (Nesh, Chelt, FJ and RC….17-27 W/L) where routed 156-34. They would make the Top 20 at #16 behind Northampton per the math. No personal inputs.
** North Allegheny (7-5.) Did a double take seeing where Born Power Index had them then double checked my math to see an error calculating. Had one
quality win and losses to Pitt CC, Pickerington Cent-OH, Lebo x 2 and Seneca Val, although they played Lebo tough, 28-17, in the Wpial semi. The win was 20-16 vs Mentor-OH (5-6), a perennial Ohio power (102-27 last 10) with their worst record since 2005 (5-5) and 2, 3, 3, 4 point losses this year. Rest of schedule consisting of Pitt Allderdice (4-6), Baldwin (2-8), Norwin (4-6), Canon McMillan (4-7) and Hempfield (2-8) were defeated by the average score of 42-16. Came in at 18th. (Miscalculated Mentor’s PR)
** Carlisle (7-4). Had quality wins on road against State College (8-6) 21-14 and CD East (7-4) 28-20 with losses to Cumberland Valley (5-5) 27-24, Harrisburg (12-2) 34-14 and 36-7 and Central Dauphin (5-3) 24-21. Came in 19th.
Here are 5 more teams making it a Top 25.
** Parkland (9-2). Dumb me, I thought this was the 6A rep out of D-11. Had quality wins against Easton (6-4) 24-21, Nazareth (7-4) 43-40, Freedom (11-2) 19-15, East Stroudsburg South (9-4) 43-24, Emmaus (9-4) 25-14, losing to Allen CC (9-4) 14-7 and Emmaus (9-4) 21-14 in playoffs. District 11 was similar to District 3 this year with parity ruling. Came in 21st.
** Central Dauphin East (7-4). Challenging schedule, with wins against Warwick (6-5) 28-21, Cedar Cliff (10-3) 20-7, State College (8-6) 34-13, CV (5-5) 17-10, CD (5-3) 31-14, losing to Manheim Township (6-5) 24-21, Harrisburg (12-2) 25-20, Carlisle (7-4) 28-20, Hempfield (7-5) 35-2. Came in 22nd.
** Emmaus (9-4). Hecky-jerky season like Easton, splitting with the best teams in the district, Parkland and Freedom, and beating Nazareth twice. Beat Freedom 13-6, Naz 35-7 and 20-19 in playoffs and Parkland 21-14 with quality losses to Allen CC 21-0, Easton 17-13, Parkland 25-14 and Freedom 28-14. Finished 23rd.
** Perkiomen Valley (9-3). One quality win vs Spg-Fd (6-5) 28-22 who did a good impersonation of Easton, CD East, Pennridge et al with tough losses (parity!) to Coatesville (12-2) x 2, 35-27, 35-30 and Manheim Central (9-2) 43-40, another toss-up game. Finished 24th.
** CB West (9-3). Only quality wins were Pennridge x 2, 28-24, 19-17 with losses to Coatesville 35-14, North Penn 28-14, GVal 41-13. Came in 25th.tied with Pennridge.
TIE
** Pennridge (7-5). No quality wins but an inordinate number of quality, narrow losses to Downingtown West 14-7, North Penn 21-14, CB West x 2, 28-24, 19-17 and Quakertown 21-0. Reverse those 4 (minus Qtown Turkey game) and they’re 11-0 entering the playoffs. Ended tied with CB West at 25th. A lot of points for competitiveness but you’ve got to win some of those games!
Adjusted Rankings of 12-20-21 (what the math says)
1 Mount Lebanon 15-0
2 St. Joseph’s Prep 11-3
3 LaSalle 9-2
4 Central York 10-1
5 Quakertown 13-1
6 Freedom 11-2
7 North Penn 11-1
8 Pitt CC 9-3
9 Harrisburg 12-2
10 Garnet Valley 14-1
11 Coatesville 12-2
12 Ridley 12-2
13 Wilson 9-4
14 Downingtown East 9-3
15 Northampton 12-1
16 Archbishop Wood 5-5
17 McDowell 9-3
18 North Allegheny 7-5
19 Carlisle 7-4
20 State College 8-6
21 Parkland 9-2
22 Central Dauphin East 7-4
23 Emmaus 9-4
24 Perkiomen Valley 9-3
25 Central Bucks West 9-3
TIE
25 Pennridge 7-5