Born Index - 6A

[RoverNation05]

Referenced this in another thread, but this time of year I start to find the Born Index an interesting way to look at teams around the state. It’s a power ratings formula, so similar to something like what Bill Connelly does for college football at ESPN with his SP+. It’s meant to predict scores (so the difference between teams rating would be how many points they’re favored by). I don’t know the actual formula (proprietary) but I think it’s interesting, particularly the tiers it creates.

Here’s what their rating spits out for 6A, which also try to break up in groups where there are natural divides.

1. Pittsburgh Central Catholic - 113.5
2. LaSalle - 113.3
3. St. Joseph’s Prep - 113.2
All virtually identical

4. State College - 98.9
5. Manheim Township - 98.6
6, North Allegheny - 97.8
7. Imhotep Charter - 97

8. Freedom - 95.5
9. Easton - 94
10. Harrisburg - 93.7
11. Parkland 93.5
12. Central York - 92.7
13. Erie McDowell - 91.9

14. North Penn - 88.7
15. CB South - 88.5
16. Downingtown West - 88.2
17. Wilson West Lawn - 87.9
18. Nazareth - 86.5
19. Emmaus - 86.5
20. Perkiomen Valley - 85.5

 

[RoverNation05]

Thoughts

The top three are all painfully close to each other, and two touchdowns better than everybody else in Pennsylvania.

Nobody in District 1 in the first three tiers is wild.

Manheim Township is loved by this rating system more than human polls.

CB South gets the opposite treatment, way more love in human polls.

District 11 doesn’t have a top two tier team, but five in the top 20 (most if any 6A district) feels reflective of their depth. Makes for probably the most fun postseason.

 

[tulla]

Thoughts

The top three are all painfully close to each other, and two touchdowns better than everybody else in Pennsylvania.

Nobody in District 1 in the first three tiers is wild.

Manheim Township is loved by this rating system more than human polls.

CB South gets the opposite treatment, way more love in human polls.

District 11 doesn’t have a top two tier team, but five in the top 20 (most if any 6A district) feels reflective of their depth. Makes for probably the most fun postseason.

I don't know about PCC, but for SJP and LaSalle the Index is of especially limited value since the scores of games can be more than a little deceiving. Tonight SJP beat O'Hara 35-14, but it was 35-0 early in the third quarter. Something similar happened with SJP-Judge and, apparently, with LaSalle-Bonner/Prendie. Also, the prospects of each team are probably linked more to their injury situations than to the margins of their wins/losses to date. Will McFadden and Sutter be healthy for LaSalle? They may have other key injuries. Meanwhile, it seem SJP will not have their #1 RB (West) back at all. Last year he was huge in the game against LaSalle--check the highlights--and big in just about all the playoff games. Will they get Roy back on the defensive line? And even if he's back against LaSalle, he likely won't be near 100%. They're not deep on the offensive line so an injury there could have a big impact.

 

[northalleghenytiger]

I can’t imagine PCC being close to lasalle and SJP. If they are, then there is a slew of 5A teams better than anyone in 6A

 

[RoverNation05]

I can’t imagine PCC being close to lasalle and SJP. If they are, then there is a slew of 5A teams better than anyone in 6A

The rating has Upper St. Clair, Bethel Park, Peters Township, and Pine-Richland better than every 6A team but the three Catholic schools. Upper St. Clair at 112 is only a point and a half behind those three.

Aliquippa and Penn Hills would be in that second tier. Moon, Bishop McDevitt, Woodlamd Hills, and Roman Catholic would be with the 8-13 teams in 6A.

 

[yeez1001]

Heard the injury bug may have bitten lasalle last night. Is Joey O’Brien okay?