Newport….and others; Power Ratings-Point Spreads, SJP vs The Five.
Here are the Power Ratings/Spreads for hypothetical games featuring St. Joseph’s Prep against ’95 Penn Hills, ’98 CB West, ’00 Cathedral Prep, ’04 Pittsburgh Central Catholic and ’12 North Allegheny, with some narrative/research that may be interesting while trying not to stray too much into things covered by RoverNation05. The PRs are based on scores and schedule difficulty.
**** St. Joseph’s Prep 6-0 2020 vs Penn Hills 15-0 1995
Keep in mind that in 1995 (25 years ago!), it was a different game, including rules, field condition, equipment and approach in terms of offense and defense. Today’s hard tackle might get you thrown out of the game while that same tackle back then might elevate you from 2nd string to the first unit. Anyway, while being a long way from an expert on this, comparisons can only go so far since it was a different game. While no team gave SJP a game, Penn Hills was involved in more than a few close calls. What stands out about them is they were pedestrian and one dimensional, rarely throwing and averaging 26ppg. Eight of twelve finalist this year averaged over 40ppg. Five averaged 45 or more! But and it’s a big but, they also had inordinately large lines (see below) that dominated on both sides. Lines this size were more the exception than the rule in ’95. Another team with a monster line was Butler who almost pulled the upset game #1 losing 14-0. They played a wicked WPIAL schedule, one many teams including the Hawks might struggle with. Their ppg average actually increased (26 to 32) once they got out of the Wpial wars (North Hills-Lavar Arrington, Gateway, Woodland Hills, USC, Pitt CC, etc) and into the postseason, finding those teams (first 3 were Wpial) a walk in the park, winning by an average score of 32-9. Hypothetical or not, remember that Penn Hills faced and survived the grind of a full season in terms of injury and depth the Hawk’s didn’t have to face. But we know how the Hawk’s fared health wise in just six games. Bottom line, SJP comes out 546.72 to Penn Hill’s 539.09, a spread of 7.63; -7 ½.
Penn Hills OL, 1995
TE: Ron Graham 6-4 235, jr
OL: Mike White 6-4 300, sr
OL: Demond Gibson 6-4 315, sr
OL: Jared Smith 6-0 245, sr
OL: Ted Fitzpatrick 6-1 250, sr
OL: Kevin McCoy 6-4 245, sr
For size comparison, here’s 92 Alabama and 93 Notre Dame
Notre Dame 1993 O-Line depth chart.
TE
80- Oscar McBride Jr 6'5'' 262 Carrollwood, FL
88- Leon Wallace So 6'3'' 268 Bedford, TX
98- Pete Chryplewicz rs Fr 6'5'' 253 Sterling Heights, MI
LT
75- Aaron Taylor Sr 6'4'' 305 Concord, CA
70- Mike McGlinn Jr 6'6'' 285 Kansas City, MO
LG
67- Mark Zataveski Jr 6'6'' 296 Robinson, PA
59- Lance Johnson Sr 6'2'' 270 Charlotte, NC
C
61- Tim Ruddy Sr 6'3'' 295 Dunmore, PA
78- Jordan Halter rs Sr 6'7'' 289 Troy, MI
RG
72- Ryan Leahy So 6'5'' 263 Yakima, WA
77- Dusty Zeigler So 6'5'' 284 Redan, GA
RT
66- Todd Norman Sr 6'5'' 273 Huntington Beach, CA
Alabama 1992 O-Line
TE
83- Steve Busky Sr 6'6'' 233 Suitland, MD
5- Tony Johnson Fr 6'4'' 240 Como, MS
LT
63- Matt Hammond Jr 6'3'' 266 Fort Payne, AL
74- Kareem McNeal rs Fr 6'5'' 287 Tuskegee, AL
LG
68- George Wilson Sr 6'2'' 263 Bessemer, AL
59- John Clay Jr 6'2'' 265 Nashville, TN
C
61- Tobie Sheils Jr 6'3'' 250 Fairhope, AL
67- Scott Mullenix Jr 6'3'' 270 Jacksonville, FL
RG
69- Jon Stevenson So 6'2'' 273 Memphis, TN
62- William Barger Jr 6'3'' 270 Birmingham, AL
RT
77- Roosevelt Patterson Jr 6'4'' 290 Mobile, AL
60- Joey Harville So 6'5'' 276 Moulton, AL
**** St. Joseph’s Prep 6-0 2020 vs Central Bucks West 15-0 1998
Like Penn Hills above, Central Bucks West was a basher, keeping it on the ground as exclusively as Penn Hills and therefore as one dimensional and predictable. However, this was the era of head coach Mike Pettine and O-Line guru Mike Carey, who by more than a few accounts fashioned one of the best playoff O-Lines ever. They had few challengers. One was undefeated Norristown (3-0) in their first road game (Week-4) where the Eagles put up a good fight, losing 28-13. They had strong teams then, finishing 11-2, both losses to CBW. The team that would pick up the SOL banner with the decline of West was North Penn, who often gave the Bucks fits. It was no different this year with the Knights giving them their stiffest test of the season, losing 13-12 in a Pettine Sr. vs Pettine Jr (NP coach) showdown. Council Rock hadn’t split yet (2002) and was fielding good stuff as well. The ‘98 edition held West to their second lowest output in a competitive 21-17 loss. Thereon they sailed through the remaining six games by an average score of 39-11, capped by a romp in the final, beating New Castle 56-7. Here fullback Dustin Picciotti (6-3, 235, jr) shattered Arlan Harris' Class 4A record of 185 yards rushing for Downingtown with 236 yards. Wow! Harris set the 4A finals record two years earlier against Woodland Hills in a 49-14 rout of the Wolverines. The Bucks also set the total yardage record against New Castle at 535 yards. The bottom line here shows the Hawk’s winning in a squeaker with a PR of 546.72 to the Bucks’ 541.02, or -5. Personally, it’s hard imagining anyone slowing West’s controlled drives and….managing Dustin Picciotti. https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/3aaaba2e-67b5-47fa-b1f5-99a23499110e
**** St. Joseph’s Prep 6-0 2020 vs Cathedral Prep 14-0 2000
Cathedral Prep had absolutely no competition, rolling to the state final against Central Bucks West scoring 48ppg, allowing 9. There was the Altoona anomaly in the Western Semifinal where the Mountain Lions played stall ball, holding the ball until the last moment while staying largely with the option to shorten the game. It almost worked as the Ramblers escaped with a harrowing 27-20 double overtime win. Bear in mind they blasted Altoona in the regular season 46-10. Two games later and after getting past Mount Lebanon 39-14, they were in the final against Central Bucks West. The Bucks had just defeated one of Bob Stem’s tough Bethlehem Catholic teams 27-12, after Beca disposed of Cumberland Valley 43-28 in a wild one. For my District-3 buds who thought CV would humble the Hawks, the turning point may have occurred on CV’s opening drive to Beca’s 10 yards line where Eddie Scipio delivered a 97 yard Pick-6 gut shot. For years, the knock on Prep was they played a weak schedule. Unknown to many, they played their share of quality teams during the Michael “Mina” George years, going 131-44-4 from 1980 through 1995. Few knew this until Mike Mischler became head coach in 1998, turning the program into a steady winner that won state titles. You Have To Get The Gold To Get Noticed In This State! He led them to the West Final in his first year against New Castle with a young team after beating Schenley 36-0 in the first round then upsetting State College in the quarterfinals, 20-14 in double overtime. New Castle beat them 27-25, after Prep missed an extra point and a two point conversion while taking and a losing a 12-0 first quarter lead to finish 9-4. The very next year saw them in the 4A final against Central Bucks West, losing 14-13. It all came together the following year beating the Bucks 41-35 in overtime. Not bad, winning a gold medal in your third year! Mischler had two stints at ECP; from 1998 through 2004 going 61-25 and again from 2009 to the present going 141-24, with 4 more gold medals and 2 silver-runner up medals. In 2000 their PR is 543.11, making the Hawks at 546.72 a 3.61 favorite, -3 ½.
**** St. Joseph’s Prep 6-0 2020 vs Pittsburgh Central Catholic 16-0 2004
This game and maybe the one below matches the best two of that era against what many are calling the best of this era. Who knows. Do know Central was severely tested (was SJP?), beating quality teams from Gateway (11-2) 28-20, Penn Hills (10-2) 39-24, Upper St. Clair (11-1) 20-12, Gateway again in the Wpial final 28-0, McDowell (10-2) 44-3, Bishop McDevitt (10-3) 44-0 and Neshaminy (13-2) 49-14 in the state final. That’s an impressive list with a combined record of 76-14. Both of Gateway’s losses were to Central Catholic. Apart from an 8 point loss to Central in the opener, they had an impressive win at Thomas Jefferson (14-2) 34-21. TJ never lost again on the way to their first Class 3A title, handling Manheim Central (13-2) 56-20. Central beating McDowell soundly influenced their PR because of the schedule McDowell played including teams from Ohio and New York. McDowell lost to Kirk Herbstreit’s high school in Centerville, OH (11-1, 368-136 since ‘73) 31-14, who lost bad to Cincinnati public school power Colerain (15-0) 35-0. Defeating St. Francis, NY (8-2) 50-27, who defeated St. Ignatius, OH (10-3) 28-13 also improved the resume. Once again the math says it’s the Hawks at 546.72 to Central’s 544.02, a narrow 2.7 advantage or -3 point favorite. Central will always be a blast from the past after living at 419 Neville Street (Oakland) with my father as a teenager just up the street from Central Catholic High.
**** St. Joseph’s Prep 6-0 2020 vs North Allegheny 16-0 2012
North Allegheny like all the teams above would be an opponent that was battle tested by a variety of quality teams and systems, going through the trials and tribulations that define a full schedule. It would be a real test for St. Joseph’s or any team’s durability and depth to play a similar schedule. North Allegheny and all the teams above survived the gauntlet of a 14 to 16 team schedule. Flashback: In 2005, McKeesport beat Bishop McDevitt 14-13 in the West Final. The Crusaders were playing without one of the best running back in the country in LeSean McCoy who broke an ankle against Harrisburg game 4. Who would argue his loss was not decisive in the outcome. McKeesport went on to overwhelm Liberty 49-10 the following week. This year St. Joe’s lost running back Josh Barlow and later linebacker Jeremiah Trotter in just six games. Point being, you can’t project wear, tear and injuries doing this kind of an assessment. But you can still have fun with it. About North Allegheny, they played a number of quality teams, destroying all but one, defeating Mount Lebanon (8-3) 39-14, a strong Seneca Valley (10-2) twice, 45-3 and 47-17, whose only losses were to NA after destroying all others by an average score of 42-18. Powerful Gateway (9-2) also fell in NA’s only competitive game of the season, losing 14-3. The Gators went on to defeat all their opponents by an average score of 46-11….except Woodland Hills (10-3), who defeated them in the Wpial 2nd round 17-14. The wins stacked up in the Wpial defeating Sen Val twice (above), Woody (10-3) 21-14, McDowell (7-6) 44-3, Wilson (13-2) 45-10 in the semifinal and Coatesville (13-3) in the final 63-28. In all these games they either destroyed teams by significant margins, shut them down defensively or both. Check out McDowell who looks anemic at 7-6 until noting they played arguably a more difficult schedule than any Pennsylvania team that year losing to Ohio powers Mentor (12-2) 34-27, St. Ignatius (11-2) 34-10, St. Edward (11-1) 34-23, Cardinal Mooney (3-6) 27-21 and Erie’s Cathedral Prep (15-0) 41-27. I went to that length talking about NA’s opponents because they directly link to some of the strongest teams in both Ohio and Pennsylvania, making North Allegheny, based on schedule difficulty and scores, one of the state’s strongest teams ever.
This is the only team that had a higher PR than St. Joe’s at 549.57 vs Hawk’s 546.72, making St. Joe’s a 3 point underdog. I’m sure a bunch of people would love to jump on that dog!
Here are the Power Ratings/Spreads for hypothetical games featuring St. Joseph’s Prep against ’95 Penn Hills, ’98 CB West, ’00 Cathedral Prep, ’04 Pittsburgh Central Catholic and ’12 North Allegheny, with some narrative/research that may be interesting while trying not to stray too much into things covered by RoverNation05. The PRs are based on scores and schedule difficulty.
**** St. Joseph’s Prep 6-0 2020 vs Penn Hills 15-0 1995
Keep in mind that in 1995 (25 years ago!), it was a different game, including rules, field condition, equipment and approach in terms of offense and defense. Today’s hard tackle might get you thrown out of the game while that same tackle back then might elevate you from 2nd string to the first unit. Anyway, while being a long way from an expert on this, comparisons can only go so far since it was a different game. While no team gave SJP a game, Penn Hills was involved in more than a few close calls. What stands out about them is they were pedestrian and one dimensional, rarely throwing and averaging 26ppg. Eight of twelve finalist this year averaged over 40ppg. Five averaged 45 or more! But and it’s a big but, they also had inordinately large lines (see below) that dominated on both sides. Lines this size were more the exception than the rule in ’95. Another team with a monster line was Butler who almost pulled the upset game #1 losing 14-0. They played a wicked WPIAL schedule, one many teams including the Hawks might struggle with. Their ppg average actually increased (26 to 32) once they got out of the Wpial wars (North Hills-Lavar Arrington, Gateway, Woodland Hills, USC, Pitt CC, etc) and into the postseason, finding those teams (first 3 were Wpial) a walk in the park, winning by an average score of 32-9. Hypothetical or not, remember that Penn Hills faced and survived the grind of a full season in terms of injury and depth the Hawk’s didn’t have to face. But we know how the Hawk’s fared health wise in just six games. Bottom line, SJP comes out 546.72 to Penn Hill’s 539.09, a spread of 7.63; -7 ½.
Penn Hills OL, 1995
TE: Ron Graham 6-4 235, jr
OL: Mike White 6-4 300, sr
OL: Demond Gibson 6-4 315, sr
OL: Jared Smith 6-0 245, sr
OL: Ted Fitzpatrick 6-1 250, sr
OL: Kevin McCoy 6-4 245, sr
For size comparison, here’s 92 Alabama and 93 Notre Dame
Notre Dame 1993 O-Line depth chart.
TE
80- Oscar McBride Jr 6'5'' 262 Carrollwood, FL
88- Leon Wallace So 6'3'' 268 Bedford, TX
98- Pete Chryplewicz rs Fr 6'5'' 253 Sterling Heights, MI
LT
75- Aaron Taylor Sr 6'4'' 305 Concord, CA
70- Mike McGlinn Jr 6'6'' 285 Kansas City, MO
LG
67- Mark Zataveski Jr 6'6'' 296 Robinson, PA
59- Lance Johnson Sr 6'2'' 270 Charlotte, NC
C
61- Tim Ruddy Sr 6'3'' 295 Dunmore, PA
78- Jordan Halter rs Sr 6'7'' 289 Troy, MI
RG
72- Ryan Leahy So 6'5'' 263 Yakima, WA
77- Dusty Zeigler So 6'5'' 284 Redan, GA
RT
66- Todd Norman Sr 6'5'' 273 Huntington Beach, CA
Alabama 1992 O-Line
TE
83- Steve Busky Sr 6'6'' 233 Suitland, MD
5- Tony Johnson Fr 6'4'' 240 Como, MS
LT
63- Matt Hammond Jr 6'3'' 266 Fort Payne, AL
74- Kareem McNeal rs Fr 6'5'' 287 Tuskegee, AL
LG
68- George Wilson Sr 6'2'' 263 Bessemer, AL
59- John Clay Jr 6'2'' 265 Nashville, TN
C
61- Tobie Sheils Jr 6'3'' 250 Fairhope, AL
67- Scott Mullenix Jr 6'3'' 270 Jacksonville, FL
RG
69- Jon Stevenson So 6'2'' 273 Memphis, TN
62- William Barger Jr 6'3'' 270 Birmingham, AL
RT
77- Roosevelt Patterson Jr 6'4'' 290 Mobile, AL
60- Joey Harville So 6'5'' 276 Moulton, AL
**** St. Joseph’s Prep 6-0 2020 vs Central Bucks West 15-0 1998
Like Penn Hills above, Central Bucks West was a basher, keeping it on the ground as exclusively as Penn Hills and therefore as one dimensional and predictable. However, this was the era of head coach Mike Pettine and O-Line guru Mike Carey, who by more than a few accounts fashioned one of the best playoff O-Lines ever. They had few challengers. One was undefeated Norristown (3-0) in their first road game (Week-4) where the Eagles put up a good fight, losing 28-13. They had strong teams then, finishing 11-2, both losses to CBW. The team that would pick up the SOL banner with the decline of West was North Penn, who often gave the Bucks fits. It was no different this year with the Knights giving them their stiffest test of the season, losing 13-12 in a Pettine Sr. vs Pettine Jr (NP coach) showdown. Council Rock hadn’t split yet (2002) and was fielding good stuff as well. The ‘98 edition held West to their second lowest output in a competitive 21-17 loss. Thereon they sailed through the remaining six games by an average score of 39-11, capped by a romp in the final, beating New Castle 56-7. Here fullback Dustin Picciotti (6-3, 235, jr) shattered Arlan Harris' Class 4A record of 185 yards rushing for Downingtown with 236 yards. Wow! Harris set the 4A finals record two years earlier against Woodland Hills in a 49-14 rout of the Wolverines. The Bucks also set the total yardage record against New Castle at 535 yards. The bottom line here shows the Hawk’s winning in a squeaker with a PR of 546.72 to the Bucks’ 541.02, or -5. Personally, it’s hard imagining anyone slowing West’s controlled drives and….managing Dustin Picciotti. https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/3aaaba2e-67b5-47fa-b1f5-99a23499110e
**** St. Joseph’s Prep 6-0 2020 vs Cathedral Prep 14-0 2000
Cathedral Prep had absolutely no competition, rolling to the state final against Central Bucks West scoring 48ppg, allowing 9. There was the Altoona anomaly in the Western Semifinal where the Mountain Lions played stall ball, holding the ball until the last moment while staying largely with the option to shorten the game. It almost worked as the Ramblers escaped with a harrowing 27-20 double overtime win. Bear in mind they blasted Altoona in the regular season 46-10. Two games later and after getting past Mount Lebanon 39-14, they were in the final against Central Bucks West. The Bucks had just defeated one of Bob Stem’s tough Bethlehem Catholic teams 27-12, after Beca disposed of Cumberland Valley 43-28 in a wild one. For my District-3 buds who thought CV would humble the Hawks, the turning point may have occurred on CV’s opening drive to Beca’s 10 yards line where Eddie Scipio delivered a 97 yard Pick-6 gut shot. For years, the knock on Prep was they played a weak schedule. Unknown to many, they played their share of quality teams during the Michael “Mina” George years, going 131-44-4 from 1980 through 1995. Few knew this until Mike Mischler became head coach in 1998, turning the program into a steady winner that won state titles. You Have To Get The Gold To Get Noticed In This State! He led them to the West Final in his first year against New Castle with a young team after beating Schenley 36-0 in the first round then upsetting State College in the quarterfinals, 20-14 in double overtime. New Castle beat them 27-25, after Prep missed an extra point and a two point conversion while taking and a losing a 12-0 first quarter lead to finish 9-4. The very next year saw them in the 4A final against Central Bucks West, losing 14-13. It all came together the following year beating the Bucks 41-35 in overtime. Not bad, winning a gold medal in your third year! Mischler had two stints at ECP; from 1998 through 2004 going 61-25 and again from 2009 to the present going 141-24, with 4 more gold medals and 2 silver-runner up medals. In 2000 their PR is 543.11, making the Hawks at 546.72 a 3.61 favorite, -3 ½.
**** St. Joseph’s Prep 6-0 2020 vs Pittsburgh Central Catholic 16-0 2004
This game and maybe the one below matches the best two of that era against what many are calling the best of this era. Who knows. Do know Central was severely tested (was SJP?), beating quality teams from Gateway (11-2) 28-20, Penn Hills (10-2) 39-24, Upper St. Clair (11-1) 20-12, Gateway again in the Wpial final 28-0, McDowell (10-2) 44-3, Bishop McDevitt (10-3) 44-0 and Neshaminy (13-2) 49-14 in the state final. That’s an impressive list with a combined record of 76-14. Both of Gateway’s losses were to Central Catholic. Apart from an 8 point loss to Central in the opener, they had an impressive win at Thomas Jefferson (14-2) 34-21. TJ never lost again on the way to their first Class 3A title, handling Manheim Central (13-2) 56-20. Central beating McDowell soundly influenced their PR because of the schedule McDowell played including teams from Ohio and New York. McDowell lost to Kirk Herbstreit’s high school in Centerville, OH (11-1, 368-136 since ‘73) 31-14, who lost bad to Cincinnati public school power Colerain (15-0) 35-0. Defeating St. Francis, NY (8-2) 50-27, who defeated St. Ignatius, OH (10-3) 28-13 also improved the resume. Once again the math says it’s the Hawks at 546.72 to Central’s 544.02, a narrow 2.7 advantage or -3 point favorite. Central will always be a blast from the past after living at 419 Neville Street (Oakland) with my father as a teenager just up the street from Central Catholic High.
**** St. Joseph’s Prep 6-0 2020 vs North Allegheny 16-0 2012
North Allegheny like all the teams above would be an opponent that was battle tested by a variety of quality teams and systems, going through the trials and tribulations that define a full schedule. It would be a real test for St. Joseph’s or any team’s durability and depth to play a similar schedule. North Allegheny and all the teams above survived the gauntlet of a 14 to 16 team schedule. Flashback: In 2005, McKeesport beat Bishop McDevitt 14-13 in the West Final. The Crusaders were playing without one of the best running back in the country in LeSean McCoy who broke an ankle against Harrisburg game 4. Who would argue his loss was not decisive in the outcome. McKeesport went on to overwhelm Liberty 49-10 the following week. This year St. Joe’s lost running back Josh Barlow and later linebacker Jeremiah Trotter in just six games. Point being, you can’t project wear, tear and injuries doing this kind of an assessment. But you can still have fun with it. About North Allegheny, they played a number of quality teams, destroying all but one, defeating Mount Lebanon (8-3) 39-14, a strong Seneca Valley (10-2) twice, 45-3 and 47-17, whose only losses were to NA after destroying all others by an average score of 42-18. Powerful Gateway (9-2) also fell in NA’s only competitive game of the season, losing 14-3. The Gators went on to defeat all their opponents by an average score of 46-11….except Woodland Hills (10-3), who defeated them in the Wpial 2nd round 17-14. The wins stacked up in the Wpial defeating Sen Val twice (above), Woody (10-3) 21-14, McDowell (7-6) 44-3, Wilson (13-2) 45-10 in the semifinal and Coatesville (13-3) in the final 63-28. In all these games they either destroyed teams by significant margins, shut them down defensively or both. Check out McDowell who looks anemic at 7-6 until noting they played arguably a more difficult schedule than any Pennsylvania team that year losing to Ohio powers Mentor (12-2) 34-27, St. Ignatius (11-2) 34-10, St. Edward (11-1) 34-23, Cardinal Mooney (3-6) 27-21 and Erie’s Cathedral Prep (15-0) 41-27. I went to that length talking about NA’s opponents because they directly link to some of the strongest teams in both Ohio and Pennsylvania, making North Allegheny, based on schedule difficulty and scores, one of the state’s strongest teams ever.
This is the only team that had a higher PR than St. Joe’s at 549.57 vs Hawk’s 546.72, making St. Joe’s a 3 point underdog. I’m sure a bunch of people would love to jump on that dog!
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