Impact of NCAA Transfer Portal on HS Football

[tulla]

It's clear that the introduction of the portal and the new rules about transfers are changing college football in big ways. Just wondering if people think there will be a spill-over effect on high school football. Less or more pressure to commit early? More transfers between high schools (in imitation of what's happening in colleges)? My general sense is that there could be a spill-over effect in which the trend for college players to think of themselves as (at least potentially) free agents will show up in high schools. It seems to have been happening for a while in hs basketball, though I know there's a big difference between the basketball and football worlds.

 

[sammyk]

Its been going on in North Carolina for decades.

 

[Stalker]

It's clear that the introduction of the portal and the new rules about transfers are changing college football in big ways. Just wondering if people think there will be a spill-over effect on high school football. Less or more pressure to commit early? More transfers between high schools (in imitation of what's happening in colleges)? My general sense is that there could be a spill-over effect in which the trend for college players to think of themselves as (at least potentially) free agents will show up in high schools. It seems to have been happening for a while in hs basketball, though I know there's a big difference between the basketball and football worlds.

I imagine they'll be more pressure by the colleges to "get there first" as early as the rules allow them to do so....and for the HS players to position themselves accordingly; as advantageously as possible.
They're already doing this whether we acknowledge it or not going to this school over that school. In some cases, the transfer is blatant to that end with PSU signee Mahki Flowers of Steel High saying as much transferring into CD East last year for better recognition and competition.
Guess I just opened the can of worms on recruiting (dammit!). But, knowing you can be an overnight millionaire at this college or that says you HAVE to position yourself to that end.

 

[roxychknpoxy]

It's clear that the introduction of the portal and the new rules about transfers are changing college football in big ways. Just wondering if people think there will be a spill-over effect on high school football. Less or more pressure to commit early? More transfers between high schools (in imitation of what's happening in colleges)? My general sense is that there could be a spill-over effect in which the trend for college players to think of themselves as (at least potentially) free agents will show up in high schools. It seems to have been happening for a while in hs basketball, though I know there's a big difference between the basketball and football worlds.

Tulla -
It’s a perfect storm in college right now with open portal and NIL - name, image, likeness. A case in point is the QB, Ewers I believe, who entered OSU early. He went in to portal and chose Texas I believe. Coincidentally, Texas said they would help him with NIL and all but guaranteed him $1m a year for his NIL. It only takes one deep pocketed alum booster to say ‘put his picture on 200,000 plastic cups and I’ll buy them for $5 each and hand them out as business incentives, etc. I can’t say the name, but I know an AD at a prominent ACC university. He said that the NIL will slowly alter college sports and tarnish what’s left of reasonable competition. A lot of money will be made on NIL by players.
As far as high school, the shift ready started because of what you discussed previously and to which I agree, the pool of kids playing football has shrunk dramatically and those players and families will choose high schools that provide the best step forward. Schools like SJP become a vacuum, a magnet if you will. The $take$ are higher now at the next level (college) and getting to the NIL $ will begin to take greater precedence in high school.

 

[tulla]

Tulla -
It’s a perfect storm in college right now with open portal and NIL - name, image, likeness. A case in point is the QB, Ewers I believe, who entered OSU early. He went in to portal and chose Texas I believe. Coincidentally, Texas said they would help him with NIL and all but guaranteed him $1m a year for his NIL. It only takes one deep pocketed alum booster to say ‘put his picture on 200,000 plastic cups and I’ll buy them for $5 each and hand them out as business incentives, etc. I can’t say the name, but I know an AD at a prominent ACC university. He said that the NIL will slowly alter college sports and tarnish what’s left of reasonable competition. A lot of money will be made on NIL by players.
As far as high school, the shift ready started because of what you discussed previously and to which I agree, the pool of kids playing football has shrunk dramatically and those players and families will choose high schools that provide the best step forward. Schools like SJP become a vacuum, a magnet if you will. The $take$ are higher now at the next level (college) and getting to the NIL $ will begin to take greater precedence in high school.

That makes a lot of sense, Roxy. I see lots of "brand development" happening to kids before they even get to high school--obviously more with kids who play certain positions. One likely result is that kids (and their parents) will be more inclined to think they're bigger or more important than the team or the school. Doesn't have to happen but, like the Ewers example you cite, we see it happening more and more at the college level. I remember watching a few ND games in the fall with a lot of the broadcasters' comments being about why player X transferred from, say, Texas to NC. Of course the player is quoted as saying he really liked the style of Coach Y, but you had to think it was about where he was going to have a greater opportunity to get noticed.

From one perspective it makes sense, but you wonder how many have a realistic notion of their chances of having a long NFL career--or any NFL career. I'd also like to see what it's all doing to graduation rates, already very low in many colleges.

One big question is whether in the end it will affect the interest level of fans, including alumni and other students. If every year there's a fair turnover of players, will fans (who have been able to maintain some illusions about college football) decide, say, to skip watching most of the game on TV and just tune in at the end if the game is close? Will fans who spend hundreds of dollars travelling to a game at Happy Valley, for instance, decide to stay home and mow the lawn? Will high school football games seem increasingly like showcase opportunities for kids to accumulate more "offers"? I listened to the Milton-SJP game last year and got annoyed by how much time the student broadcasters spent on listing which schools had made offers to which players (on both teams).Maybe there's some connection here why attendance at almost all high school games is down quite a bit. Not the only reason, of course.

Of course, maybe I'm just getting old.