D1/D12-6A Playoffs, Semifinals……..by the numbers.

[Stalker]

Great games all across the Commonwealth Friday and Saturday. Good luck and good health to all!


Downingtown West (1) 10-1, 185.73 vs Haverford (12) 9-2, 179.06
Back to back games at Kottmeyer takes away any mystic and some of the edge Downingtown West may have had if the Fords had not won there last week against Downingtown East 35-12. But they probably can’t count on West being as generous as East who fumbled 4 times, lost 2 and threw 3 picks. That’s not likely to happen with Will Howard under center handing off/passing to Tyriq Lewis. And since no one held West under 33 points except Coatesville, it’s unlikely Haverford will unless again gifted with turnovers. But the Fords are hot, winning the last 10 by an average score of 37-11. Trey Blair appears healthy and the real deal but so is Tyriq Lewis, Will Howard, the Whippet’s receiver corps (J. Wms, S. Pelkisson, A. Rosano), and Lewis who has great hands. They average 46ppg and allow 21, defeated Pennsbury 63-25 and North Penn 40-31 in the playoffs while Haverford touts road wins at Spring Ford 49-14 and D-West 35-12. If Downingtown was in need of a wake-up call Haverford may have provided it last week. Heart says otherwise but the numbers point to a Whippet win.

Coatesville (7) 8-2, 183.80 vs Garnet Valley (3) 10-1, 186.03
Coatesville (13-2) and Garnet Valley (12-2) met two years ago in the District-1 final at Garnet Valley in a back and forth game that wasn’t decided until the last minute when Aaron Young made a pick then raced 72 yards for the winning score. The 35-28 victory was the school’s first district championship since 2012, advancing them to the final where they lost to St. Joseph’s Prep 53-49. Despite the loss, this was big stuff, especially with a team loaded with sophomores and juniors. Friday’s game should be no less exciting as the two again find themselves in similar circumstance, this time in the semifinal also played at Garnet Valley. The difference is this year’s Raider group is not as consistent or powerful as the last two editions. The 2017 (13-2) and 2018 (15-1) teams averaged 44ppg with defenses allowing 17 in 2017 and 12 last year. Hard finding a more lethal threesome those years of Ortega, Dapree Bryant and sorely missed Andrew Young who rushed for over 1600 yards each year. Ortega had an unbelievable sophomore season in 2017, throwing for almost 3300 yards at 64% with a 42-4 Td/Pick ratio and good health. Conversely, Garnet Valley is stronger than last year (12-1, 38-14ppg) or the 2017 team (12-2, 30-17ppg), topping out at 46ppg with 5 backs over 400 yards, 3 over 700. Greg Reynolds has 982 with Jake Morin at 743 and Qb Ryan Gallaher at 702. It’s understood the Jags are real hard to beat at home where they are supported by an upbeat and full house crowd. Should be little wind but it will be football weather….40s. Slight edge to G-Val by the numbers in a game of contrasting styles.

St. Joseph’s Prep (1) 8-2, 202.39 vs Northeast (1) 11-1, 168.22
There’s a crowd out there that’s enamored with Northeast, saying they’ll win because they have a lot of athletes. Makes you wonder how they’d describe the Hawks? But Northeast does have some D1 players scoring 32ppg and allowing 5 against a decent schedule of wins vs Abington (8-3) 34-13, Haverford School (6-4) 36-0 and Imhotep (7-4) 8-6, losing to Episcopal (9-1) 26-13. Against just those 4, they averaged 23, allowed 11. Not an overwhelming slate but worthy. D-cord Dion Barnes, a former PSU player seems to have them on the same page, playing inspired ball. Against that the Hawks have a more national approach in scheduling, taking on in some cases the TOP programs in the country plus the local powers, losing to Marietta-GA (8-2) 21-17 (plays national powers Grayson 9-1, McEachern 10-0, Camden County 8-2) and IMG (8-1) 31-25 (plays Northwestern and Booker T both 9-1 of Miami, St. Frances-Balt 10-1, Hoover-AL 9-2) with wins against St. John’s (6-4) 34-30 (plays DeMatha 7-3, OLGC 7-3, Zaga 8-2), LaSalle (8-3) twice, 44-13 and 52-7….and Wood (7-3) 42-21. Against that group alone they averaged 36 and allowed 21. Pretty impressive results against a rated/ranked array of teams, either directly or through linkage.

 

[Gang $$ Green]

Interesting. You have been right on money thus far. I’m surprised both West and Haverford numbers fell from last week(Fords by 8) and Garnet went up considerably in the formula.

Some fascinating matchups. Most important issue in any game is Blair’s health. If he isn’t right that’s huge on both sides of ball for Haverford. Has to be right for them to stay in it.

West offense by far best and most athletic Haverford has seen. Really seen nothing close. That’s going to be the matchup there. Haverford is better on defense than offense. How good we find out tomorrow. Might be tall task up there two weeks in a row but that’s been an under the radar defense all year. Think East thought they would bully them and got surprised maybe even shocked when that didn’t happen. West a different animal who matches up better.

Coatesville Garnet Valley the matchups are GV oline vs Coatesville D and can GV secondary hang in. GV oline on a roll. Grind play clock with sustained drives and keep Ortega off field. Shorten game and execute. They are great at it.

I think GV secondary is key. Both Haverford and UD had some success there. If they can hang in and maybe cause turnover or two could be the difference. Neither of these two sneaking up on one another. Almost like a league game.

 

[Stalker]

Interesting. You have been right on money thus far. I’m surprised both West and Haverford numbers fell from last week(Fords by 8) and Garnet went up considerably in the formula.

Some fascinating matchups. Most important issue in any game is Blair’s health. If he isn’t right that’s huge on both sides of ball for Haverford. Has to be right for them to stay in it.

West offense by far best and most athletic Haverford has seen. Really seen nothing close. That’s going to be the matchup there. Haverford is better on defense than offense. How good we find out tomorrow. Might be tall task up there two weeks in a row but that’s been an under the radar defense all year. Think East thought they would bully them and got surprised maybe even shocked when that didn’t happen. West a different animal who matches up better.

Coatesville Garnet Valley the matchups are GV oline vs Coatesville D and can GV secondary hang in. GV oline on a roll. Grind play clock with sustained drives and keep Ortega off field. Shorten game and execute. They are great at it.

I think GV secondary is key. Both Haverford and UD had some success there. If they can hang in and maybe cause turnover or two could be the difference. Neither of these two sneaking up on one another. Almost like a league game.

Good catch Gang $$ Green. Thanks.

• Haverford was a typo, should be 179.06 not 165.06. Thought it’d be higher myself, but is pegged to their opponent each week, not just a raw rating based on what they’ve done. The Downingtown East win didn’t boost them as much as I thought it might with East’s recent susceptibility to mistakes/turnovers; 114 yards in penalties vs Perk Val then the complete breakdown last week vs Haverford of 4 fumbles (2 lost) and 3 picks, impacting their rating. If you can’t win at home or hang onto the ball!

• Good eye catching Garnet Valley up significantly over last week with the 35 point margin win over Ply White (56-21) who came in well regarded (value points) after the 56 point outburst vs Abington at Abington. And, there are value points for streaks where they’ve now won 11 straight. I gave significant value in the formula for winning 10 straight, more for exceeding it.
  
  
• Downingtown West dropped to 1.43 allowing 35 (Pbury) and 31 (NPenn) points the last two games combined with Home Field Value diminished per Haverford playing there last week. The math is symbiotic or at least a interplay between the specific teams involved, not a simple rating of 185.73 for DWest that would apply against any other team. It is relative to this week’s opponent, Haverford, not Coatesville or others.
  

There’s a boring peek into how aspects of the “math” work.

 

[ChesmontLeague1]

Nice job Stalk but let’s play it on the field. Here’s to an all Chesmont Final in 5A and 6A!

 

[Gang $$ Green]

Thanks for update. Very interesting. It’s been incredibly accurate. It may or may not been used in some local establishments for amusement only.

 

[Stalker]

Thanks for update. Very interesting. It’s been incredibly accurate. It may or may not been used in some local establishments for amusement only.

Hey, something to do. And right....for amusement only. Last year's NFL games were weirdly accurate as this has been in some ways to date; 1st Rd 7-1, 2nd 4-0. But you know, a fumble here, missed tackle there and it all flips. And if you're right about Haverford's strength being defense, that matches well with D-West's strength being offense. West gives up lots of pts from time to time.
Ches I hear you, it's always played out on the field and the heck with stats. Gettysburg lost to Berks Catholic, Rollers went down breaking hearts of a few college buds so I'm all in for Central Dauphin.