The West Super Regional is absolutely unbalanced in the 3A classification. The strength of the districts is: D7, D11, D3, D6, D1, D10, D2, D4, D12. So, this region pits #1, 3, 4 all together, plus some real high end stars from District 10. The result is a very unbalanced regional set up, where a lot of very good wrestlers are going to be left home from this region while the East will have some kids sneak in. PennLive ran an article that 70% of the wrestlers ranked in the top ten in the state come from the Western Super Region. This tournament will be better than most state tournaments, with the survitors in very good position to be high finishers next week. All rankings from PaPower Wrestling.
106
#5 Carl Nasdeo, Williamsport (So – NW1)
#10 Andrew Binni, Canon-McMIllan (Fr. – SW3)
#4 Dominic Flatt, Solanco (Sr. – SC2)
#9 Antonio Walker, Plum (Fr. – SW2)
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#3 Kaedyn Williams, Manheim Township (Fr. – SC1)
#14 Logan Sallot, Erie McDowell (So. – NW2)
#15 Rocco Fratelli, Northern York (Fr. – SC3)
#2 Tyler Chappell, Seneca Valley (So. – SW1)
The Favorite: Tyler Chappell, Seneca Valley
Chappell is #2 ranked wrestler in the state and just barely missed Hershey in 2020. He’s a little bigger and a little better this year and certainly has the advantage of a really good Seneca Valley room. He won the WPIAL title comfortably last weekend.
The Challenger: Kaedyn Williams, Manheim Township
If you go by national rankings, Williams is the favorite here and at the state level as polls have him as high as #11 in the country. He’s an uber talented freshman – tall and lanky and not afraid to mix things up upper body and can really punish from top. It’s a great skillset and one that will be fun to see tested in the next two weeks.
Best First Round Match: Dominic Flatt vs. Antonio Walker
A pair of top ten kids in the state and regional runner ups lock horns right away. The loser of this match has an absolutely brutal path to Hershey, so getting by here is of utmost importance.
Semifinals: Andrew Binni vs. Dominic Flatt and Kaedyn Williams vs. Tyler Chappell
I’m a big Andrwe Binni fan, and like him with a little bit of an upset against Nasdeo in the first round. But Flatt is the rare senior at 106, and that experience advantage will kick in against the freshman. On the other side, Williams and Chappell is a possible state final and one of the best semis we’re going to get. Although Chappell seems to be the favorite on paper, I’ve been so impressed with the Williams brothers, and I think Kaedyn gets the momentum started early here.
Blood Round: Andrew Binni vs. Rocco Fratelli and Tyler Chappell vs. Antonio Walker
Binni drops to a very winnable consy match if he can get the upset of Nasdeo. Chappell would drop to Walker, who would need to go through some combination of Flatt, Nasdeo, and Chappell in this situation to make Hershey – not an easy feat and means that first round match is probably the difference between a state berth and not.
Finals: Kaedyn Williams vs. Dominic Flatt
All three of Flatt’s loses this year are to Williams, though they’ve gotten progressively closer, with a 4-3 outcome last week in the Distrct 3 finals. He absolutely could pull the upset, but going with Williams for a fourth time.
State Qualifier Prediction
1. Kaedyn Williams, Manheim Township
2. Dominic Flatt, Solanco
3. Tyler Chappell, Seneca Valley
4. Andrwe Binni, Canon McMillan
113
#1 Vinny Kilkeary, Greater Latrobe (So. – SW1)
#4 Aiden Lewis, Cedar Cliff (Sr. – SC3; Bucknell)
#11 Noah Clawson, Carlisle (Sr. – SC2)
#5 Nic Allison, Mifflin County (Jr. – NW2)
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#3 Kamdyn Williams, Manheim Township (Fr. – SC1)
#6 Troy Hohman, Penn-Trafford (Jr. – SW2)
#10 Joe Simon, Waynesburg (Fr. – SW3)
#2 Jacob Van Dee, Erie Cathedral Prep (Jr. – NW1)
The Favorite: Vinny Kilkeary, Greater Latrobe
Kilkeary was somewhat of a surprise state champ in 2020 – he was the District 7 runner up, then went through Dominic Flatt, Keanu Manuel, Tyler Kasak, and Jacob Van Dee for a state title. He was electric on Saturday – erasing an 8-3 deficit to Kasak with a pair of five point throws to win 14-10, then he threw a headlock and pinned Van Dee in overtime to win the state title. He had a monster summer and established himself nationally and now is ranked #3 in the country and is a clear favorite to win the weight. He’s super strong, loves big moves, and is a fan favorite.
The Challenger: Jacob Van Dee, Erei Cathedral Prep
Van Dee is a returning finalist and should make his third Hershey trip. He’s more measured and cautious than Kilkeary, but is really tough to score on and can shorten a match with his mat wrestling.
Best First Round Match: Vinny Kilkeary vs. Aiden Lewis
Kilkeary’s win in the District 7 finals gets him returning state finalist and two-time medalist Aiden Lewis. Lewis lost a match of the year candidate to Kamdyn Williams last week, 11-9 , in the District 3 semis and fought back to take third. Lewis was a finalist at 113 last year and was a solid pick as Kilkeary’s top challenger in the weight. The winner here is a very good bet to win the weight this weekend.
Semifinals: Vinny Kilkeary vs. Nic Allison and Kamdyn Williams vs. Jacob Van Dee
I think Kilkeary gets by Lewis and Nic Allison is a solid favorite over Clawson. Kilkeary and Allison is fun, both are built like fire hydrants and like upper body throws. Kilkeary is a little smoother and should win, but backpoints are likely somewhere. Down below, Kamdyn Williams is a budding star, like his twin brother, and had all of his skills on display in his win over Aiden Lewis last week, where he put the state finalist on his back twice. He’s tall and lean, but also isn’t afraid of big risks. He has more offense than Van dee, and I think he knocks out a state silver medalist for the second straight week.
Blood Round: Nic Allison vs. Troy Hohman and Jacob Van Dee vs. Aiden Lewis
Hohman is kind of a forgotten man here, but he’s a returning qualifier and a top talent in the state. Allison gets dropped in here and I’ve always been a big fan of his style, so I’ll take him to advance. Van Dee and Lewis is a battle between returning state finalists just to qualify for Hershey! I’ve been the high man on Lewis for a long time – I thought he was the best guy at 113 last year and it wouldn’t surprise me if he won it this time around, despite the brutal competition. I think he has more tools to score points than Van Dee, who has to be cautious to beat top guys.
Finals: Vinny Kilkeary vs. Kamdyn Williams
Entertainment value – off the charts. This could be a bomb fest, with both guys very happy to take risks and constantly on the lookout for five point moves from neutral. It’s a body styles contrast too, with the short and muscular Kilkeary taking on the tall and lanky Williams. Kilkeary is on a roll since last March and I think he wins it, but don’t be surprised if Williams really pushes him or wins outright.
State Qualifier Predictions
1. Vinny Kilkeary, Greater Latrobe
2. Kamdyn Williams, Manheim Township
3. Aiden Lewis, Cedar Cliff
4. Nic Allison, Mifflin County
120
#4 Lane Aikey, Bellefonte (Sr. – NW1)
#10 Chad Ozias, Connellsville (Jr. – SW3)
#6 Mason Leiphart, Dover (Jr. SC2)
#3 Mac Church, Waynesburg (So. – SW2)
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#5 Karl Shindledecker, Chambersburg (Jr. – SC1)
Caleb Fasick, Altoona (So. - NW2)
#9 Joshua Hillard, Manheim Township (Jr. – SC3)
#2 Dylan Coy, North Allegheny (Jr. – SW1)
The Favorite: Mac Church (Waynesburg)
Even though he lost last week, I’m still considering Mac Church the favorite in this weight. The Waynesburg sophomore took third last season after a controversial overtime loss in state quarterfinals (he was called for a third caution in overtime to lose). He’s got fantastic short offense and really good misdirection stuff from his feet in space. And I bet he’s chomping at the bit for a rematch with Dylan Coy.
The Contender: Dylan Coy, North Allegheny
Well, Coy got the best of Church last week with a 4-3 win in the District 7 finals. Coy is also a state mealist but doesn’t have the reputation or pediegree of Church. Can he prove that last weekend was not a fluke?
Best First Round Match: Mason Leiphart vs. Mac Church
Church gets penalized harshly for his finals loss last week, getting dropped into a much tougher half of the bracket. He’ll start with Mason Leipart, a now three-time District 3 runner up who has lost in the blood round at states in back-to-back years.
Semifinals: Lane Aikey vs. Mac Church and Karl Shindledecker vs. Dylan Coy
Aikey took seventh at states last year, including a win over Coy on the back side. Bellefonte hasn’t wrestled much this year, but he’s a favorite against Ozias in round one. Church is another story – Aikey is going to have to bring his best to get to finals, but I think Church is too polished. On the bottom half, Shindledecker was third in the state as a freshman, then didn’t make it back to Hershey last year. He’s back in form this year, and beat Leiphart for the District 3 title last weekend. Coy is a bit of an enigma to me. He’s always been a step behind the top tier guys – not getting blown out, but consistently losing to the Mac Church’s and Dylan Chappell’s of the world. But getting by Church last week kind of changes my mental calculus because now he has taken down one of the big dogs. But does that mean he’s putting together a big run? Not sure, and I think Shindledecker is more of a sure thing to get to finals.
Blood Round: Lane Aikey vs. Joshua Hilliard and Dylan Coy vs. Mason Leiphart
Aikey should drop to be a solid favorite on the challenger from the top half. On the other side, Coy and Leiphart poses to be a war – Leipart owns a career win over Aiden Lewis and certainly can scrap and Coy obviously is the WPIAL champ. This deciding a state berth is ruthless.
Finals: Mac Church vs. Karl Shindledecker
In case it is not apparent, I think very highly of Mac Church as a wrestler. I think he rights the ship after the upset last week. Sindledecker is still kind of an unknown on the state level despite the bronze medal, and I think Church is too consistent.
State Qualifier Predictions
1. Mac Church, Waynesburg
2. Karl Shindledecker, Chambersburg
3. Mason Leiphart, Dover
4. Lane Aikey, Bellefonte
126
#1 Carter Dibert, Franklin Regional (Sr. – SW1; Arizona State)
#7 Stephen Spitko, Daniel Boone (Sr. – SC3)
#14 Owen Woolcott, State College (Sr. – NW2)
#5 Aliazer Alicea, Manheim Township (Jr. – SC2)
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#10 Luke Simcox, Central Mountain (Fr. – NW1)
#2 Ethan Berginc, Hempfield Area (Sr. – SW2; Army)
#11 Nicholas Gorman, North Allegheny (So. – SW3)
#4 Matt Repos, Central Dauphin (So. – SC1)
The Favorite: Carter Dibert, Franklin Regional
Dibert won a state title as a sophomore, flipping a WPIAL finals loss against Dylan Chappell and turning him in the state finals to blow open a close match. He got upset last year in state quarters by Dante Frinzi, but battled back for third place. Dibert is as good at the cross wrist tilt series as anybody in the state, and racks up tons of back points. He handled returning state champ Ethan Berginc (who won 113 last year after Dibert was knocked out on the other side) and established himself as the guy to beat here.
The Challenger: Matt Repos, Central Dauphin
Repos won a very controversial quarterfinal last year with Mac Church to make state semis at 106. On the back side, he beat Tyler Kasak to get to the 3rd/4th match – that is a huge pair of wins on his resume. He’s a Central Dauphin kid, so cross wrist tilt and great mat wrestling are part of the package, and he’s really bulked up to be a more physical lightweight this season. The District 7 guys get the attention in this weight because they’re both state champs, but Repos is right there with both of them (and Tyler Kasak form the east).
Best First Round Match: Luke Simcox vs. Ethan Berginc
Berginc is a returning state champion after having the weekend of his life in Hershey last week. He’s a grinder, nothing particularly flashy in his offense, but is solid defensively and can counter wrestle with the best of them. He’ll have to ward off a very talented freshman in Luke Simcox, who has the skills of a future state champ, but is a little green here.
Semifinals: Carter Dibert vs. Aliazer Alicea and Ethan Berginc vs. Matt Repos
Dibert and Alicea should get to semis relatively easily, with Dibert a solid favorite to make the finals. He’s too good all the way around. The bottom half is an awesome match, with Berginc and Repos – this is a state semifinal a weekend early. Coin toss match, but I think Repos is on the way up and Berginc as a state champion has a big target on his back.
Blood Round: Aliazer Alicea vs. Luke Simcox and Ethan Berginc vs. Stephen Spitko
I mentioned that Simcox is probably out of his depth with Berginc. I do think he gets to states. He’d need an upset over Alicea, but on pure skillset, Simcox has that kind of talent. In the other blood round match, Berginc is a solid favorite to move on.
Finals: Carter Dibert vs. Matt Repos
This match is good enough to be a state final (and very well might be next weekend). Both kids are fantastic on top – high percentage that SOMEBODY gets a turn in this one. Senior versus sophomore probably makes the difference in my mind, and Dibert will be the “top seed” in Hershey next week.
State Qualifier Predictions
1. Carter Dibert, Franklin Regional
2. Matt Repos, Central Dauphin
3. Ethan Berginc, Hempfield Area
4. Luke Simcox, Central Mountain
132
#1 Dylan Chappell, Seneca Valley (Sr. – SW1; Bucknell)
#17 Garrett Gehr, Garden Spot (Jr. – SC3)
#13 Kyle Miller, Cumberland Valley (Sr. – SC2)
#5 Braden Bower, Williamsport (Jr. – NW2; Bucknell)
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#11 Griffin Gonzalez, Lebanon (So. – SC1)
#7 Briar Priest, Hempfield Area (Jr. – SW2)
#8 Colton Stoneking, Waynesburg (Jr. – SW3)
#3 Jude Swisher, Bellefonte (Jr. – NW1)
The Favorite: Dylan Chappell
Chappell is a two-time state finalist with both bouts going to the wire – at 106 as a sophomore and 120 last season. He’s grown into 132 and is a solid favorite both this weekend and in Hershey. He’s well rounded, not flashy, but is a pretty good match up with everybody else in the weight class.
The Challenger: Jude Swisher
Swisher was a state medalist as a sophomore and has really jumped levels to a national caliber guy. He had the toughest path to get here – he lost in the District 6 finals to freshman phenom Pierson Manville, then knocked Manville off in the Northwest Regional final last week (and Manville lost a true second match to Braden Bower to end his season). Swisher is super polished and technical, and is making a star turn.
Best First Round Match: Colton Stoneking vs. Jude Swisher
Swisher will have to prove it early though, with Colton Stoneking as his first match out of the gate. Stoneking is part of a fantastic room in Waynesburg and has the best practice partners in the field, which goes a long way in a weird, COVID shortened season. I think Swisher should beat him, but he’s going to have to work to do it.
Semifinals: Dylan Chappell vs. Braden Bower and Griffin Gonzalez vs. Jude Swisher
Awesome semifinal on the top with Chappell and Bower. Bower is the lighter of the twins from Williamsport, who have been knocking on the door of making a big state impact for their whole careers. This year they seem to have made the leap, and Bower’s win over Manville is possibly the best anybody has in the postseason so far. But, I don’t think he gets by Chappell. On the bottom, Swisher is a solid favorite against whoever comes out of the other pod in his semi.
Blood Round: Braden Bower vs. Brian Priest and Griffin Gonzalez vs. Kyle Miller
Bower and Priest is a really tough blood round match – both are certainly worthy state medalists, but I think Bower finally gets his. On the other side, District 3 is a little behind in thisw weight, but Gonzalez should get by to Hershey.
Finals; Jude Swisher vs. Dylan Chapell
Here’s a mild upset pick. Both are nationally ranked in about the same ballpark, but Chappell has more credentials at the state level. I think Swisher has a few more ways to score in neutral, and a match will a little pace favors the State College junior. Mark this down as one of the most fun finals from a clash of styles perspective.
State Qualifier Predictions
1. Jude Swisher, State College
2. Dylan Chappell, Franklin Regional
3. Braden Bower, Williamsport
4. Griffin Gonzalez, Lebanon
138
#2 Cole Homet, Waynesburg (Jr. – SW1)
#11 Dominic Frontino, Shippensburg (So. – SC3)
#7 Chandler Ho, DuBois (Sr. – NW2; Clarion)
#10 Caden Dobbins, Dallastown (Jr. – SC2)
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#6 Matt Sarbo, Altoona (Sr. – NW1; Lock Haven)
#3 Finn Solomon, Franklin Regional (Jr. – SW2; NC State)
#5 Dylan Evans, Chartiers Valley (So. – SW3)
#4 Josh Miller, Central Dauphin (Sr. – SC1; Air Force)
The Favorite: Cole Homet, Waynesburg
Cole Homet backed up the good things I said about him by beating Finn Solomon in the District 7 finalst last week. Homet is a two-time medalist, but is the underrated elite guy in an excellent lineup. Homet is tall and wiry strong, likes to scramble, and has lots of experience on big stages.
The Challenger: The entire bottom half of the bracket
The bottom quad here has four of the top six wrestlers in the state – it’s nuts. Sarbo is a medalist and three time qualifier, Solomon is a state finalist, and Evans and Miller are both returning medalists. Whoever comes out of this meat grinder is absolutely capable of beating Homet, and any of the fourth would be a reasonable pick.
Best First Round Match: Josh Miller vs. Dylan Evans
Miller beat Evans 4-1 in state quarterfinals on his way to a fifth place finish, while Evans wrestled back for seventh. It should be tight again – both guys have had excellent seasons and got 20+ matches in, so they’re more seasoned than a lot of wrestlers. Either match in the bottom of this bracket could hold this distinction.
Semifinals: Cole Homet vs. Caden Dobbins and Matt Sarbo vs. Dylan Evans
Homet is a safe bet in his first match, while Ho and Dobbins will be a really good first round match. Dobbins is my pick in a coin flip. But in semis, Homet is a clear favorite over whoever wins. IN the bottom half, I’m taking Evans over Miller, again, coin flip, and Matt Sarbo over Finn Solomon. I’ve long been a big Matt Sarbo fan, and I think he gets underrated statewide. If he can get off of bottom against Solomon, I think he’s better from his feet and wins the match. Similarly, I like Sarbo to get past the Miller-Evans winner and make a finals trip.
Blood Round: Caden Dobbins vs. Finn Solomon and Dylan Evans vs. Chandler Ho
The Solomon-Miller (or Evans) winner should be in a really good position to wrestle back for a states spot. I have Evand dropping to Chandler Ho, which would be a tough but very winnable match.
Finals: Cole Homet vs. Matt Sarbo
This was a wild first round of states match last year, where the entire third period was a scramble, ultimately won by Homet to take a 6-5 match. I would expect this to be high scoring and fun again, but I think Homet is just a little bit better of a scrambler.
State Qualifier Predictions
1. Cole Homet, Waynesburg
2. Matt Sarbo, Altoona
3. Dylan Evans, Chartiers Valley
4. Finn Solomon, Franklin Regional
145
#1 Wyatt Henson, Waynesburg (Sr. – SW1; Iowa)
#13 Michael Trainor, Octorara (Jr. – SC3)
#11 Ryan Garvick, Central Dauphin (Fr. – SC2)
#15 Kyler Everly, Mifflin County (Jr. – NW2)
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#10 Reagan LeFevre, Hempfield (Jr. – SC1)
#2 John Altieri, Norwin (Sr. – SW2; Clarion)
#3 Ty Linsenbigler, Hempfield Area (Sr. – SW3; Lock Haven)
#7 Riley Bower, Williamsport (Jr. – NW1; Bucknell)
The Favorite: Wyatt Henson, Waynesburg
Henson is the returning state champ after winning a title in Missouri as a sophomore (he placed in PA as a freshman before moving for his dad’s coaching career then coming back). Henson is violent on his feet – just brutal in short offense and can score in bunches. He’s ranked #3 nationally and is clearly the best guy in the weight.
The Challenger: John Altieri, Norwin
Altieri owns a pair of wins over Ty Linsenbigler which has really separated him as the #2 guy in this weight. The Clarion commit was fourth in the state last year at 138 and was a PowerAde medalist.
Best First Round Match: Ty Linsenbigler vs. Riley Bower
Linsenbigler’s loss to Altieri in semis last week came with dire consequences. Linsenbigler dropped down from 152 to avoid the insanity of that weight class, but has not been the autofinalist I anticipated. He’ll meet Riley Bower, a state qualifier from 2020 who is 54-6 over the last two seasons.
Semifinals: Wyatt Henson vs. Ryan Garvick and JohN Altieri vs. Ty Linsenbigler
Henson should roll in his first match and meet freshman Ryan Garvick. Garvick has all the makings of a future state champion and seems like the next big star out of Central Dauphin. He’s out of his depth a little here with Henson, but this is going to be a really good match developmentally for the 9th grader. On the other half, Altieri and LInsenbigler will lock horns for the third straight week. Altieri seems to have the better of these future PSAC rivals (Clarion vs. Lock Haven) and I like him to move on again.
Blood Round: Ryan Garvick vs. Riley Bower and Ty Linsenbigler vs. Michael Trainor
Garvick and Bower is one of the best blood round matches that you’ll find this weekend. Bower has been knocking on the door of a state medal for the past two seasons, while Garvick is one of the most hyped freshmen this year. Very much worth the price of admission, I’ll go out on a limb and take the pup in Garvick. On the other half, Linsenbigler does himself favors by winning his opening round match as he drops into an easier blood round even with a third loss to Altieri.
Finals: Wyatt Henson vs. John Altieri
Henson beat Altieri 8-3 last week in the District 7 final, scoring all of the offensive points. There is no indication that this week will be any different, and he may even stretch that lead heading into the state tournament. Little bull all the way.
State Qualifier Predictions
1. Wyatt Henson, Waynesburg
2. John Altieri,Norwin
3. Ty Linsenbigler, Hempfield Area
4. Ryan Garvick, Central Dauphin
152
#1 Alejandro Herrera-Rondon, Seneca Valley (Sr. – SW1; Oklahoma)
#11 Kevin Olavarria, Manheim Township (Fr. – SC3)
#10 Gabriel Belga, Cumberland Valley (So. – SC2)
#19 Roman Morrone, Wiliamsport (Jr. – NW2)
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#8 Bryce Buckman, Central Dauphin (Sr. – Sc1)
#2 Rocco Welsh, Waynesburg (So. – SC2)
#4 Jared Keslar, Connellsville (Jr. – SC3)
#3 Paniro Johnson, Erie Cathedral Prep (Sr. – NW1; Iowa State)
The Favorite: Alejandro Herrera-Rondon, Seneca Valley
Herrera-Rondon, or AHR for short, won state championships as a freshman and sophomore thanks to brilliant leg defense and punishing work from top. Last season, he lost a semifinal match in ultimate tiebreaker to Patrick Noonan (Stroudsburg – now Virginia) to end his quest for four state titles. He’s still really good, and is favored to be a three-time state champ. He’s grown and filled out a ton since he was a 106 pound state champ, and has rolled through his schedule this year. Still, he’s one of four nationally ranked wrestlers at the weight, so he’ll have to win a great field.
The Challenger: Paniro Johnson, Erie Cathedral Prep, Jared Keslar, Connellsville, Rocco Welsh, Waynesburg
The three wrestlers on the bottom half are all state champion caliber and will make for an absolute blood bath. Johnson is a three-time state medalist, going 8-5-3, and might be the strongest wrestler in the gym. Welsh was a state finalist as a freshman last year, nearly pulling an upset at 126, and is considered one of the best sophomores in the country, regardless of weight class. Keslar is wide open, probably the most fun guy in the class, and took 4th at 145 as a sophomore (losing to Johnson in the 3rd/4th match).
Best First Round Match: Jared Keslar vs. Paniro Johnson
This would be a state final in a lot of places. Instead, we’re getting it in the ostensible state round of 16. Johnson scored a pair of takedowns on Keslar last year in their match at states, and from a power and speed standpoint, he’s got an advantage. But Keslar can really funk, and if Johnson doesn’t get him with the freight train double in his arsenal, Keslar can create wild scoring opportunities for himself. This should be really fun.
Semifinals: Alejandro Herrera-Rondon vs. Gabriel Belga and Rocco Welsh vs. Paniro Johnson
AHR is a solid favorite on top, the advantage of winning District 7 last week was massive, and he’s got a nice path to the finals this weekend. Welsh has to get through state qualifier Bryce Buckman before he can see the Johnson-Keslar winner, which I think will be Johnson. This match is another barnburner. Welsh is super physical, in your face, and wrestles just plain mean. Johnson is a tough guy to intimdate though, and is one of the few guys in the country that Welsh can’t out-horse. Johnson seems to be slept on by the state media, and I think he reminds people how good he is this weekend.
Blood Round: Gabriel Belga vs. Jared Keslar and Rocco Welsh vs. Kevin Olavarria
A relative breather for our top four here. I have Keslar getting by Buckman then beating Belga rather handily, while Welsh also should punch his ticket with a win over Olavarria.
Finals: Alejandro Herrera-Rondon vs. Paniro Johnson
I’m going off the board and taking Johnson. Granted, I’m known as an AHR hater, but I think that he’s really, really good, but is vulnerable against top guys because he doesn’t quite have that go-to attack from his feet. Johnson is capable of finishing on AHR because his best offense is that explosive double that doesn’t require him to scramble to finish. If he can get off bottom, I think he’s got the best chance at scoring points from his feet.
State Qualifier Predictions
1. Paniro Johnson, Erie Cathedral Prep
2. Alejandro Herrera-Rondon, Seneca Valley
3. Rocco Welsh, Waynesburg
4. Jared Keslar, Connellsville
160
#2 Cole Spencer, Pine-Richland (Sr. – SW1; Penn)
#20 Jacob Cherry, Gettysburg (Jr. – Sc3)
#15 Ryan fry, Red Lion (Sr – Sc2)
#5 Coy Bastian, Selinsgrove (Sr. – NW2; Bucknell)
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#13 Sean Smith, Carlisle (Sr. – SC1)
#7 Chase Kranitz, Norwin (Jr. – SW2)
#8 Collin McCorkle, North Allegheny (Sr. – SW3)
#4 Ethan Richner, Bellefonte (Sr. – NW1)
The Favorite: Cole Spencer, Pine-Richland
The 5A football player of the year is also an elite wrestler and is the class of the weight class here. He’s obviously a great athlete, but is a more polished wrestler than he gets credit for – he’s a two-time medalist and is going to wrestle at Penn.
The Challenger: Ethan Richner, Bellefonte
Richner was a state medalist as a sophomore and has qualified the last two years. He won his third regional title in overwhelming fashion last week and is going to give Spencer a solid run if he makes the final.
Best First Round Match: Collin McCorkle vs. Ethan Richner
He’ll have to get by Collin McCorkle, who surprised his way to a third place finish last week and is wrestling like his hair is on fire, beating nationally ranked Enzo Morlacci (Kiski Area) last week to punch a ticket into this weekend and end Morlacci’s season.
Semifinals: Cole Spencer vs. Coy Bastian and Chase Kranitz vs. Ethan Richner
Spencer and Bastian are solid favorites in their first round match. Bastian has been owned by Richner the last two years, but is on track to be a four-time state qualifier, but is seeking his first medal. He’s a classic District 4 kid – a grinder on his feet, a legger on top, but I think he’s a little limited athletically compared to Spencer (who isn’t) and Spencer gets to finals. Kranitz was a state qualifier last year and should scoot into semis. He made news last week when he beat Enzo Morlacci in semis. He’ll be in a really good match up with Richner, but I like the Bellefonte senior.
Blood Round: Coy Bastian vs. Collin McCorkle and Chase Kranitz vs. Ryan Fry
Bastian will need to get by a very god McCorkle to get to his fourth state tournament. Kranitz should be the favorite to advance in the other blood round match.
Finals: Cole Spencer vs. Ethan Richner
Spencer and Richner is a sneaky good final between guys who feel like they’re just under the radar statewide. Spencer will have to deal with Richner’s physicality, but has a few more leg attacks to get it done. This win also would place Spencer on the other half of the bracket from Jagger Condomitti, which helps set up that as a state final.
State Qualifier Predictions
1. Cole Spencer, Pine-Richland
2. Ethan Richner, Bellefonte
3. Coy Bastian, Selinsgrove
4. Chase Kranitz, Norwin
172
#1 Trey Kibe, Mifflin County (Sr. – NW1; Virginia Tech)
#9 Brian Finnerty, Thomas Jefferson (Jr. – SW3)
#7 Tucker Hogan, Daniel Boone (Fr. – SC2)
#4 Sammy Starr, Kiski Area (Sr. – SW2)
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#6 Tate Nichter, Chambersburg (Sr. – SC1; Drexel)
#5 Lance Urbas, State College (Sr. – NW2; Penn)
#8 Tommy Dressler, Spring Grove (Sr. – SC3; Lock Haven)
#2 Luca Augustine, Waynesburg (Sr. – SW1; Pittsburgh)
The Favorite: Trey Kibe, Mifflin County
Kibe was a state champion as a sophomore, beating Clayton Ulrey (Lower Dauphin – now Virginia Tech) in an awesome state final. He was part of the “bracket of death” at 170 last year, and fell in semifinals to Mac Stout (Mount Lebanon) in an ultimate tiebreaker to deny him a second state title. Kibe ended up taking fourth after a loss to Dylan Reinert (Gettysburg – now NC State). Kibe has some of the best leg defense in the country – he’s incredible at sitting the corner and scoring off of head outside attempts – and is excellent on the mat. He was originally a Penn State commit, but decommitted in the summer and will wrestle at Virginia Tech.
The Challenger: Luca Augustine, Waynesburg
Augustine burst onto the scene last year with an Ironman medal in December that put him into the national rankings and finished the season with a fourth place finish in Hershey. Augustine is a grinder, great handfighter, and dictates pace on his feet well. He’ll wrestle at Pitt next year and is the last of the Waynesburg state champ contenders.
Best First Round Match: Tommy Dressler vs. Luca Augustine
Augustine opens with Tommy Dressler, a two-time state qualifier who got chewed up in the bracket of death last year at 170 (losing to Angel Garcia – now at Rider, and Nick Delp – now at Bucknell) and was a match away of placing as a sophomore. He’s really good, but but probably not quite on Augustine’s level. Nichter and Urbas is another really good one.
Semifinals: Trey Kibe vs. Sammy Starr and Tate Nichter vs. Luca Augustine
Kibe should beat Brian Finnerty in the first round, while Starr has a tough match with junior high state champ Tucker Hogan, who is another one for your “probably going to win a state title at some point” list. Starr has found himself in national rankings after busting out this summer on the club circuit. Kibe should beat him, but will have his hands full. On the other side, Nichter was a state medalist as a sophomore, but missed states last year after getting knocked out in regionals. His older brother Luke was a two-time finalist and state champ who qualified for NCAAs at Drexel this season. He has to sneak by Lance Urbas, another Division I commit, who beat him 11-10 earlier in the season. I think Nichter flips it. But his reward is Augustine, who is kind of a style nightmare for Nichter.
Blood Round: Sammy Starr vs. Tommy Dressler and Tate Nichter vs. Tucker Hogan
Both of these matches are must-see TV. Both could go either way and two really good wrestlers are going to get left home. I like Dressler and Nichter, but can’t say I’m confident in either pick.
Finals: Trey Kibe vs. Luca Augustine
This is a possible state final. Kibe and Augustine are a contrast in styles, with Augustine being a little more in your face and Kibe sitting back and being an amazing counter wrestler. I think that Kibe’s best skills match up really well with what Augustine does well, and he gets by him in this round.
State Qualifier Predictions
1. Trey Kibe, Mifflin County
2. Luca Augustine, Waynesburg
3. Tommy Dressler, Spring Grove
4. Tate Nichter, Chambersburg
106
#5 Carl Nasdeo, Williamsport (So – NW1)
#10 Andrew Binni, Canon-McMIllan (Fr. – SW3)
#4 Dominic Flatt, Solanco (Sr. – SC2)
#9 Antonio Walker, Plum (Fr. – SW2)
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#3 Kaedyn Williams, Manheim Township (Fr. – SC1)
#14 Logan Sallot, Erie McDowell (So. – NW2)
#15 Rocco Fratelli, Northern York (Fr. – SC3)
#2 Tyler Chappell, Seneca Valley (So. – SW1)
The Favorite: Tyler Chappell, Seneca Valley
Chappell is #2 ranked wrestler in the state and just barely missed Hershey in 2020. He’s a little bigger and a little better this year and certainly has the advantage of a really good Seneca Valley room. He won the WPIAL title comfortably last weekend.
The Challenger: Kaedyn Williams, Manheim Township
If you go by national rankings, Williams is the favorite here and at the state level as polls have him as high as #11 in the country. He’s an uber talented freshman – tall and lanky and not afraid to mix things up upper body and can really punish from top. It’s a great skillset and one that will be fun to see tested in the next two weeks.
Best First Round Match: Dominic Flatt vs. Antonio Walker
A pair of top ten kids in the state and regional runner ups lock horns right away. The loser of this match has an absolutely brutal path to Hershey, so getting by here is of utmost importance.
Semifinals: Andrew Binni vs. Dominic Flatt and Kaedyn Williams vs. Tyler Chappell
I’m a big Andrwe Binni fan, and like him with a little bit of an upset against Nasdeo in the first round. But Flatt is the rare senior at 106, and that experience advantage will kick in against the freshman. On the other side, Williams and Chappell is a possible state final and one of the best semis we’re going to get. Although Chappell seems to be the favorite on paper, I’ve been so impressed with the Williams brothers, and I think Kaedyn gets the momentum started early here.
Blood Round: Andrew Binni vs. Rocco Fratelli and Tyler Chappell vs. Antonio Walker
Binni drops to a very winnable consy match if he can get the upset of Nasdeo. Chappell would drop to Walker, who would need to go through some combination of Flatt, Nasdeo, and Chappell in this situation to make Hershey – not an easy feat and means that first round match is probably the difference between a state berth and not.
Finals: Kaedyn Williams vs. Dominic Flatt
All three of Flatt’s loses this year are to Williams, though they’ve gotten progressively closer, with a 4-3 outcome last week in the Distrct 3 finals. He absolutely could pull the upset, but going with Williams for a fourth time.
State Qualifier Prediction
1. Kaedyn Williams, Manheim Township
2. Dominic Flatt, Solanco
3. Tyler Chappell, Seneca Valley
4. Andrwe Binni, Canon McMillan
113
#1 Vinny Kilkeary, Greater Latrobe (So. – SW1)
#4 Aiden Lewis, Cedar Cliff (Sr. – SC3; Bucknell)
#11 Noah Clawson, Carlisle (Sr. – SC2)
#5 Nic Allison, Mifflin County (Jr. – NW2)
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#3 Kamdyn Williams, Manheim Township (Fr. – SC1)
#6 Troy Hohman, Penn-Trafford (Jr. – SW2)
#10 Joe Simon, Waynesburg (Fr. – SW3)
#2 Jacob Van Dee, Erie Cathedral Prep (Jr. – NW1)
The Favorite: Vinny Kilkeary, Greater Latrobe
Kilkeary was somewhat of a surprise state champ in 2020 – he was the District 7 runner up, then went through Dominic Flatt, Keanu Manuel, Tyler Kasak, and Jacob Van Dee for a state title. He was electric on Saturday – erasing an 8-3 deficit to Kasak with a pair of five point throws to win 14-10, then he threw a headlock and pinned Van Dee in overtime to win the state title. He had a monster summer and established himself nationally and now is ranked #3 in the country and is a clear favorite to win the weight. He’s super strong, loves big moves, and is a fan favorite.
The Challenger: Jacob Van Dee, Erei Cathedral Prep
Van Dee is a returning finalist and should make his third Hershey trip. He’s more measured and cautious than Kilkeary, but is really tough to score on and can shorten a match with his mat wrestling.
Best First Round Match: Vinny Kilkeary vs. Aiden Lewis
Kilkeary’s win in the District 7 finals gets him returning state finalist and two-time medalist Aiden Lewis. Lewis lost a match of the year candidate to Kamdyn Williams last week, 11-9 , in the District 3 semis and fought back to take third. Lewis was a finalist at 113 last year and was a solid pick as Kilkeary’s top challenger in the weight. The winner here is a very good bet to win the weight this weekend.
Semifinals: Vinny Kilkeary vs. Nic Allison and Kamdyn Williams vs. Jacob Van Dee
I think Kilkeary gets by Lewis and Nic Allison is a solid favorite over Clawson. Kilkeary and Allison is fun, both are built like fire hydrants and like upper body throws. Kilkeary is a little smoother and should win, but backpoints are likely somewhere. Down below, Kamdyn Williams is a budding star, like his twin brother, and had all of his skills on display in his win over Aiden Lewis last week, where he put the state finalist on his back twice. He’s tall and lean, but also isn’t afraid of big risks. He has more offense than Van dee, and I think he knocks out a state silver medalist for the second straight week.
Blood Round: Nic Allison vs. Troy Hohman and Jacob Van Dee vs. Aiden Lewis
Hohman is kind of a forgotten man here, but he’s a returning qualifier and a top talent in the state. Allison gets dropped in here and I’ve always been a big fan of his style, so I’ll take him to advance. Van Dee and Lewis is a battle between returning state finalists just to qualify for Hershey! I’ve been the high man on Lewis for a long time – I thought he was the best guy at 113 last year and it wouldn’t surprise me if he won it this time around, despite the brutal competition. I think he has more tools to score points than Van Dee, who has to be cautious to beat top guys.
Finals: Vinny Kilkeary vs. Kamdyn Williams
Entertainment value – off the charts. This could be a bomb fest, with both guys very happy to take risks and constantly on the lookout for five point moves from neutral. It’s a body styles contrast too, with the short and muscular Kilkeary taking on the tall and lanky Williams. Kilkeary is on a roll since last March and I think he wins it, but don’t be surprised if Williams really pushes him or wins outright.
State Qualifier Predictions
1. Vinny Kilkeary, Greater Latrobe
2. Kamdyn Williams, Manheim Township
3. Aiden Lewis, Cedar Cliff
4. Nic Allison, Mifflin County
120
#4 Lane Aikey, Bellefonte (Sr. – NW1)
#10 Chad Ozias, Connellsville (Jr. – SW3)
#6 Mason Leiphart, Dover (Jr. SC2)
#3 Mac Church, Waynesburg (So. – SW2)
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#5 Karl Shindledecker, Chambersburg (Jr. – SC1)
Caleb Fasick, Altoona (So. - NW2)
#9 Joshua Hillard, Manheim Township (Jr. – SC3)
#2 Dylan Coy, North Allegheny (Jr. – SW1)
The Favorite: Mac Church (Waynesburg)
Even though he lost last week, I’m still considering Mac Church the favorite in this weight. The Waynesburg sophomore took third last season after a controversial overtime loss in state quarterfinals (he was called for a third caution in overtime to lose). He’s got fantastic short offense and really good misdirection stuff from his feet in space. And I bet he’s chomping at the bit for a rematch with Dylan Coy.
The Contender: Dylan Coy, North Allegheny
Well, Coy got the best of Church last week with a 4-3 win in the District 7 finals. Coy is also a state mealist but doesn’t have the reputation or pediegree of Church. Can he prove that last weekend was not a fluke?
Best First Round Match: Mason Leiphart vs. Mac Church
Church gets penalized harshly for his finals loss last week, getting dropped into a much tougher half of the bracket. He’ll start with Mason Leipart, a now three-time District 3 runner up who has lost in the blood round at states in back-to-back years.
Semifinals: Lane Aikey vs. Mac Church and Karl Shindledecker vs. Dylan Coy
Aikey took seventh at states last year, including a win over Coy on the back side. Bellefonte hasn’t wrestled much this year, but he’s a favorite against Ozias in round one. Church is another story – Aikey is going to have to bring his best to get to finals, but I think Church is too polished. On the bottom half, Shindledecker was third in the state as a freshman, then didn’t make it back to Hershey last year. He’s back in form this year, and beat Leiphart for the District 3 title last weekend. Coy is a bit of an enigma to me. He’s always been a step behind the top tier guys – not getting blown out, but consistently losing to the Mac Church’s and Dylan Chappell’s of the world. But getting by Church last week kind of changes my mental calculus because now he has taken down one of the big dogs. But does that mean he’s putting together a big run? Not sure, and I think Shindledecker is more of a sure thing to get to finals.
Blood Round: Lane Aikey vs. Joshua Hilliard and Dylan Coy vs. Mason Leiphart
Aikey should drop to be a solid favorite on the challenger from the top half. On the other side, Coy and Leiphart poses to be a war – Leipart owns a career win over Aiden Lewis and certainly can scrap and Coy obviously is the WPIAL champ. This deciding a state berth is ruthless.
Finals: Mac Church vs. Karl Shindledecker
In case it is not apparent, I think very highly of Mac Church as a wrestler. I think he rights the ship after the upset last week. Sindledecker is still kind of an unknown on the state level despite the bronze medal, and I think Church is too consistent.
State Qualifier Predictions
1. Mac Church, Waynesburg
2. Karl Shindledecker, Chambersburg
3. Mason Leiphart, Dover
4. Lane Aikey, Bellefonte
126
#1 Carter Dibert, Franklin Regional (Sr. – SW1; Arizona State)
#7 Stephen Spitko, Daniel Boone (Sr. – SC3)
#14 Owen Woolcott, State College (Sr. – NW2)
#5 Aliazer Alicea, Manheim Township (Jr. – SC2)
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#10 Luke Simcox, Central Mountain (Fr. – NW1)
#2 Ethan Berginc, Hempfield Area (Sr. – SW2; Army)
#11 Nicholas Gorman, North Allegheny (So. – SW3)
#4 Matt Repos, Central Dauphin (So. – SC1)
The Favorite: Carter Dibert, Franklin Regional
Dibert won a state title as a sophomore, flipping a WPIAL finals loss against Dylan Chappell and turning him in the state finals to blow open a close match. He got upset last year in state quarters by Dante Frinzi, but battled back for third place. Dibert is as good at the cross wrist tilt series as anybody in the state, and racks up tons of back points. He handled returning state champ Ethan Berginc (who won 113 last year after Dibert was knocked out on the other side) and established himself as the guy to beat here.
The Challenger: Matt Repos, Central Dauphin
Repos won a very controversial quarterfinal last year with Mac Church to make state semis at 106. On the back side, he beat Tyler Kasak to get to the 3rd/4th match – that is a huge pair of wins on his resume. He’s a Central Dauphin kid, so cross wrist tilt and great mat wrestling are part of the package, and he’s really bulked up to be a more physical lightweight this season. The District 7 guys get the attention in this weight because they’re both state champs, but Repos is right there with both of them (and Tyler Kasak form the east).
Best First Round Match: Luke Simcox vs. Ethan Berginc
Berginc is a returning state champion after having the weekend of his life in Hershey last week. He’s a grinder, nothing particularly flashy in his offense, but is solid defensively and can counter wrestle with the best of them. He’ll have to ward off a very talented freshman in Luke Simcox, who has the skills of a future state champ, but is a little green here.
Semifinals: Carter Dibert vs. Aliazer Alicea and Ethan Berginc vs. Matt Repos
Dibert and Alicea should get to semis relatively easily, with Dibert a solid favorite to make the finals. He’s too good all the way around. The bottom half is an awesome match, with Berginc and Repos – this is a state semifinal a weekend early. Coin toss match, but I think Repos is on the way up and Berginc as a state champion has a big target on his back.
Blood Round: Aliazer Alicea vs. Luke Simcox and Ethan Berginc vs. Stephen Spitko
I mentioned that Simcox is probably out of his depth with Berginc. I do think he gets to states. He’d need an upset over Alicea, but on pure skillset, Simcox has that kind of talent. In the other blood round match, Berginc is a solid favorite to move on.
Finals: Carter Dibert vs. Matt Repos
This match is good enough to be a state final (and very well might be next weekend). Both kids are fantastic on top – high percentage that SOMEBODY gets a turn in this one. Senior versus sophomore probably makes the difference in my mind, and Dibert will be the “top seed” in Hershey next week.
State Qualifier Predictions
1. Carter Dibert, Franklin Regional
2. Matt Repos, Central Dauphin
3. Ethan Berginc, Hempfield Area
4. Luke Simcox, Central Mountain
132
#1 Dylan Chappell, Seneca Valley (Sr. – SW1; Bucknell)
#17 Garrett Gehr, Garden Spot (Jr. – SC3)
#13 Kyle Miller, Cumberland Valley (Sr. – SC2)
#5 Braden Bower, Williamsport (Jr. – NW2; Bucknell)
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#11 Griffin Gonzalez, Lebanon (So. – SC1)
#7 Briar Priest, Hempfield Area (Jr. – SW2)
#8 Colton Stoneking, Waynesburg (Jr. – SW3)
#3 Jude Swisher, Bellefonte (Jr. – NW1)
The Favorite: Dylan Chappell
Chappell is a two-time state finalist with both bouts going to the wire – at 106 as a sophomore and 120 last season. He’s grown into 132 and is a solid favorite both this weekend and in Hershey. He’s well rounded, not flashy, but is a pretty good match up with everybody else in the weight class.
The Challenger: Jude Swisher
Swisher was a state medalist as a sophomore and has really jumped levels to a national caliber guy. He had the toughest path to get here – he lost in the District 6 finals to freshman phenom Pierson Manville, then knocked Manville off in the Northwest Regional final last week (and Manville lost a true second match to Braden Bower to end his season). Swisher is super polished and technical, and is making a star turn.
Best First Round Match: Colton Stoneking vs. Jude Swisher
Swisher will have to prove it early though, with Colton Stoneking as his first match out of the gate. Stoneking is part of a fantastic room in Waynesburg and has the best practice partners in the field, which goes a long way in a weird, COVID shortened season. I think Swisher should beat him, but he’s going to have to work to do it.
Semifinals: Dylan Chappell vs. Braden Bower and Griffin Gonzalez vs. Jude Swisher
Awesome semifinal on the top with Chappell and Bower. Bower is the lighter of the twins from Williamsport, who have been knocking on the door of making a big state impact for their whole careers. This year they seem to have made the leap, and Bower’s win over Manville is possibly the best anybody has in the postseason so far. But, I don’t think he gets by Chappell. On the bottom, Swisher is a solid favorite against whoever comes out of the other pod in his semi.
Blood Round: Braden Bower vs. Brian Priest and Griffin Gonzalez vs. Kyle Miller
Bower and Priest is a really tough blood round match – both are certainly worthy state medalists, but I think Bower finally gets his. On the other side, District 3 is a little behind in thisw weight, but Gonzalez should get by to Hershey.
Finals; Jude Swisher vs. Dylan Chapell
Here’s a mild upset pick. Both are nationally ranked in about the same ballpark, but Chappell has more credentials at the state level. I think Swisher has a few more ways to score in neutral, and a match will a little pace favors the State College junior. Mark this down as one of the most fun finals from a clash of styles perspective.
State Qualifier Predictions
1. Jude Swisher, State College
2. Dylan Chappell, Franklin Regional
3. Braden Bower, Williamsport
4. Griffin Gonzalez, Lebanon
138
#2 Cole Homet, Waynesburg (Jr. – SW1)
#11 Dominic Frontino, Shippensburg (So. – SC3)
#7 Chandler Ho, DuBois (Sr. – NW2; Clarion)
#10 Caden Dobbins, Dallastown (Jr. – SC2)
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#6 Matt Sarbo, Altoona (Sr. – NW1; Lock Haven)
#3 Finn Solomon, Franklin Regional (Jr. – SW2; NC State)
#5 Dylan Evans, Chartiers Valley (So. – SW3)
#4 Josh Miller, Central Dauphin (Sr. – SC1; Air Force)
The Favorite: Cole Homet, Waynesburg
Cole Homet backed up the good things I said about him by beating Finn Solomon in the District 7 finalst last week. Homet is a two-time medalist, but is the underrated elite guy in an excellent lineup. Homet is tall and wiry strong, likes to scramble, and has lots of experience on big stages.
The Challenger: The entire bottom half of the bracket
The bottom quad here has four of the top six wrestlers in the state – it’s nuts. Sarbo is a medalist and three time qualifier, Solomon is a state finalist, and Evans and Miller are both returning medalists. Whoever comes out of this meat grinder is absolutely capable of beating Homet, and any of the fourth would be a reasonable pick.
Best First Round Match: Josh Miller vs. Dylan Evans
Miller beat Evans 4-1 in state quarterfinals on his way to a fifth place finish, while Evans wrestled back for seventh. It should be tight again – both guys have had excellent seasons and got 20+ matches in, so they’re more seasoned than a lot of wrestlers. Either match in the bottom of this bracket could hold this distinction.
Semifinals: Cole Homet vs. Caden Dobbins and Matt Sarbo vs. Dylan Evans
Homet is a safe bet in his first match, while Ho and Dobbins will be a really good first round match. Dobbins is my pick in a coin flip. But in semis, Homet is a clear favorite over whoever wins. IN the bottom half, I’m taking Evans over Miller, again, coin flip, and Matt Sarbo over Finn Solomon. I’ve long been a big Matt Sarbo fan, and I think he gets underrated statewide. If he can get off of bottom against Solomon, I think he’s better from his feet and wins the match. Similarly, I like Sarbo to get past the Miller-Evans winner and make a finals trip.
Blood Round: Caden Dobbins vs. Finn Solomon and Dylan Evans vs. Chandler Ho
The Solomon-Miller (or Evans) winner should be in a really good position to wrestle back for a states spot. I have Evand dropping to Chandler Ho, which would be a tough but very winnable match.
Finals: Cole Homet vs. Matt Sarbo
This was a wild first round of states match last year, where the entire third period was a scramble, ultimately won by Homet to take a 6-5 match. I would expect this to be high scoring and fun again, but I think Homet is just a little bit better of a scrambler.
State Qualifier Predictions
1. Cole Homet, Waynesburg
2. Matt Sarbo, Altoona
3. Dylan Evans, Chartiers Valley
4. Finn Solomon, Franklin Regional
145
#1 Wyatt Henson, Waynesburg (Sr. – SW1; Iowa)
#13 Michael Trainor, Octorara (Jr. – SC3)
#11 Ryan Garvick, Central Dauphin (Fr. – SC2)
#15 Kyler Everly, Mifflin County (Jr. – NW2)
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#10 Reagan LeFevre, Hempfield (Jr. – SC1)
#2 John Altieri, Norwin (Sr. – SW2; Clarion)
#3 Ty Linsenbigler, Hempfield Area (Sr. – SW3; Lock Haven)
#7 Riley Bower, Williamsport (Jr. – NW1; Bucknell)
The Favorite: Wyatt Henson, Waynesburg
Henson is the returning state champ after winning a title in Missouri as a sophomore (he placed in PA as a freshman before moving for his dad’s coaching career then coming back). Henson is violent on his feet – just brutal in short offense and can score in bunches. He’s ranked #3 nationally and is clearly the best guy in the weight.
The Challenger: John Altieri, Norwin
Altieri owns a pair of wins over Ty Linsenbigler which has really separated him as the #2 guy in this weight. The Clarion commit was fourth in the state last year at 138 and was a PowerAde medalist.
Best First Round Match: Ty Linsenbigler vs. Riley Bower
Linsenbigler’s loss to Altieri in semis last week came with dire consequences. Linsenbigler dropped down from 152 to avoid the insanity of that weight class, but has not been the autofinalist I anticipated. He’ll meet Riley Bower, a state qualifier from 2020 who is 54-6 over the last two seasons.
Semifinals: Wyatt Henson vs. Ryan Garvick and JohN Altieri vs. Ty Linsenbigler
Henson should roll in his first match and meet freshman Ryan Garvick. Garvick has all the makings of a future state champion and seems like the next big star out of Central Dauphin. He’s out of his depth a little here with Henson, but this is going to be a really good match developmentally for the 9th grader. On the other half, Altieri and LInsenbigler will lock horns for the third straight week. Altieri seems to have the better of these future PSAC rivals (Clarion vs. Lock Haven) and I like him to move on again.
Blood Round: Ryan Garvick vs. Riley Bower and Ty Linsenbigler vs. Michael Trainor
Garvick and Bower is one of the best blood round matches that you’ll find this weekend. Bower has been knocking on the door of a state medal for the past two seasons, while Garvick is one of the most hyped freshmen this year. Very much worth the price of admission, I’ll go out on a limb and take the pup in Garvick. On the other half, Linsenbigler does himself favors by winning his opening round match as he drops into an easier blood round even with a third loss to Altieri.
Finals: Wyatt Henson vs. John Altieri
Henson beat Altieri 8-3 last week in the District 7 final, scoring all of the offensive points. There is no indication that this week will be any different, and he may even stretch that lead heading into the state tournament. Little bull all the way.
State Qualifier Predictions
1. Wyatt Henson, Waynesburg
2. John Altieri,Norwin
3. Ty Linsenbigler, Hempfield Area
4. Ryan Garvick, Central Dauphin
152
#1 Alejandro Herrera-Rondon, Seneca Valley (Sr. – SW1; Oklahoma)
#11 Kevin Olavarria, Manheim Township (Fr. – SC3)
#10 Gabriel Belga, Cumberland Valley (So. – SC2)
#19 Roman Morrone, Wiliamsport (Jr. – NW2)
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#8 Bryce Buckman, Central Dauphin (Sr. – Sc1)
#2 Rocco Welsh, Waynesburg (So. – SC2)
#4 Jared Keslar, Connellsville (Jr. – SC3)
#3 Paniro Johnson, Erie Cathedral Prep (Sr. – NW1; Iowa State)
The Favorite: Alejandro Herrera-Rondon, Seneca Valley
Herrera-Rondon, or AHR for short, won state championships as a freshman and sophomore thanks to brilliant leg defense and punishing work from top. Last season, he lost a semifinal match in ultimate tiebreaker to Patrick Noonan (Stroudsburg – now Virginia) to end his quest for four state titles. He’s still really good, and is favored to be a three-time state champ. He’s grown and filled out a ton since he was a 106 pound state champ, and has rolled through his schedule this year. Still, he’s one of four nationally ranked wrestlers at the weight, so he’ll have to win a great field.
The Challenger: Paniro Johnson, Erie Cathedral Prep, Jared Keslar, Connellsville, Rocco Welsh, Waynesburg
The three wrestlers on the bottom half are all state champion caliber and will make for an absolute blood bath. Johnson is a three-time state medalist, going 8-5-3, and might be the strongest wrestler in the gym. Welsh was a state finalist as a freshman last year, nearly pulling an upset at 126, and is considered one of the best sophomores in the country, regardless of weight class. Keslar is wide open, probably the most fun guy in the class, and took 4th at 145 as a sophomore (losing to Johnson in the 3rd/4th match).
Best First Round Match: Jared Keslar vs. Paniro Johnson
This would be a state final in a lot of places. Instead, we’re getting it in the ostensible state round of 16. Johnson scored a pair of takedowns on Keslar last year in their match at states, and from a power and speed standpoint, he’s got an advantage. But Keslar can really funk, and if Johnson doesn’t get him with the freight train double in his arsenal, Keslar can create wild scoring opportunities for himself. This should be really fun.
Semifinals: Alejandro Herrera-Rondon vs. Gabriel Belga and Rocco Welsh vs. Paniro Johnson
AHR is a solid favorite on top, the advantage of winning District 7 last week was massive, and he’s got a nice path to the finals this weekend. Welsh has to get through state qualifier Bryce Buckman before he can see the Johnson-Keslar winner, which I think will be Johnson. This match is another barnburner. Welsh is super physical, in your face, and wrestles just plain mean. Johnson is a tough guy to intimdate though, and is one of the few guys in the country that Welsh can’t out-horse. Johnson seems to be slept on by the state media, and I think he reminds people how good he is this weekend.
Blood Round: Gabriel Belga vs. Jared Keslar and Rocco Welsh vs. Kevin Olavarria
A relative breather for our top four here. I have Keslar getting by Buckman then beating Belga rather handily, while Welsh also should punch his ticket with a win over Olavarria.
Finals: Alejandro Herrera-Rondon vs. Paniro Johnson
I’m going off the board and taking Johnson. Granted, I’m known as an AHR hater, but I think that he’s really, really good, but is vulnerable against top guys because he doesn’t quite have that go-to attack from his feet. Johnson is capable of finishing on AHR because his best offense is that explosive double that doesn’t require him to scramble to finish. If he can get off bottom, I think he’s got the best chance at scoring points from his feet.
State Qualifier Predictions
1. Paniro Johnson, Erie Cathedral Prep
2. Alejandro Herrera-Rondon, Seneca Valley
3. Rocco Welsh, Waynesburg
4. Jared Keslar, Connellsville
160
#2 Cole Spencer, Pine-Richland (Sr. – SW1; Penn)
#20 Jacob Cherry, Gettysburg (Jr. – Sc3)
#15 Ryan fry, Red Lion (Sr – Sc2)
#5 Coy Bastian, Selinsgrove (Sr. – NW2; Bucknell)
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#13 Sean Smith, Carlisle (Sr. – SC1)
#7 Chase Kranitz, Norwin (Jr. – SW2)
#8 Collin McCorkle, North Allegheny (Sr. – SW3)
#4 Ethan Richner, Bellefonte (Sr. – NW1)
The Favorite: Cole Spencer, Pine-Richland
The 5A football player of the year is also an elite wrestler and is the class of the weight class here. He’s obviously a great athlete, but is a more polished wrestler than he gets credit for – he’s a two-time medalist and is going to wrestle at Penn.
The Challenger: Ethan Richner, Bellefonte
Richner was a state medalist as a sophomore and has qualified the last two years. He won his third regional title in overwhelming fashion last week and is going to give Spencer a solid run if he makes the final.
Best First Round Match: Collin McCorkle vs. Ethan Richner
He’ll have to get by Collin McCorkle, who surprised his way to a third place finish last week and is wrestling like his hair is on fire, beating nationally ranked Enzo Morlacci (Kiski Area) last week to punch a ticket into this weekend and end Morlacci’s season.
Semifinals: Cole Spencer vs. Coy Bastian and Chase Kranitz vs. Ethan Richner
Spencer and Bastian are solid favorites in their first round match. Bastian has been owned by Richner the last two years, but is on track to be a four-time state qualifier, but is seeking his first medal. He’s a classic District 4 kid – a grinder on his feet, a legger on top, but I think he’s a little limited athletically compared to Spencer (who isn’t) and Spencer gets to finals. Kranitz was a state qualifier last year and should scoot into semis. He made news last week when he beat Enzo Morlacci in semis. He’ll be in a really good match up with Richner, but I like the Bellefonte senior.
Blood Round: Coy Bastian vs. Collin McCorkle and Chase Kranitz vs. Ryan Fry
Bastian will need to get by a very god McCorkle to get to his fourth state tournament. Kranitz should be the favorite to advance in the other blood round match.
Finals: Cole Spencer vs. Ethan Richner
Spencer and Richner is a sneaky good final between guys who feel like they’re just under the radar statewide. Spencer will have to deal with Richner’s physicality, but has a few more leg attacks to get it done. This win also would place Spencer on the other half of the bracket from Jagger Condomitti, which helps set up that as a state final.
State Qualifier Predictions
1. Cole Spencer, Pine-Richland
2. Ethan Richner, Bellefonte
3. Coy Bastian, Selinsgrove
4. Chase Kranitz, Norwin
172
#1 Trey Kibe, Mifflin County (Sr. – NW1; Virginia Tech)
#9 Brian Finnerty, Thomas Jefferson (Jr. – SW3)
#7 Tucker Hogan, Daniel Boone (Fr. – SC2)
#4 Sammy Starr, Kiski Area (Sr. – SW2)
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#6 Tate Nichter, Chambersburg (Sr. – SC1; Drexel)
#5 Lance Urbas, State College (Sr. – NW2; Penn)
#8 Tommy Dressler, Spring Grove (Sr. – SC3; Lock Haven)
#2 Luca Augustine, Waynesburg (Sr. – SW1; Pittsburgh)
The Favorite: Trey Kibe, Mifflin County
Kibe was a state champion as a sophomore, beating Clayton Ulrey (Lower Dauphin – now Virginia Tech) in an awesome state final. He was part of the “bracket of death” at 170 last year, and fell in semifinals to Mac Stout (Mount Lebanon) in an ultimate tiebreaker to deny him a second state title. Kibe ended up taking fourth after a loss to Dylan Reinert (Gettysburg – now NC State). Kibe has some of the best leg defense in the country – he’s incredible at sitting the corner and scoring off of head outside attempts – and is excellent on the mat. He was originally a Penn State commit, but decommitted in the summer and will wrestle at Virginia Tech.
The Challenger: Luca Augustine, Waynesburg
Augustine burst onto the scene last year with an Ironman medal in December that put him into the national rankings and finished the season with a fourth place finish in Hershey. Augustine is a grinder, great handfighter, and dictates pace on his feet well. He’ll wrestle at Pitt next year and is the last of the Waynesburg state champ contenders.
Best First Round Match: Tommy Dressler vs. Luca Augustine
Augustine opens with Tommy Dressler, a two-time state qualifier who got chewed up in the bracket of death last year at 170 (losing to Angel Garcia – now at Rider, and Nick Delp – now at Bucknell) and was a match away of placing as a sophomore. He’s really good, but but probably not quite on Augustine’s level. Nichter and Urbas is another really good one.
Semifinals: Trey Kibe vs. Sammy Starr and Tate Nichter vs. Luca Augustine
Kibe should beat Brian Finnerty in the first round, while Starr has a tough match with junior high state champ Tucker Hogan, who is another one for your “probably going to win a state title at some point” list. Starr has found himself in national rankings after busting out this summer on the club circuit. Kibe should beat him, but will have his hands full. On the other side, Nichter was a state medalist as a sophomore, but missed states last year after getting knocked out in regionals. His older brother Luke was a two-time finalist and state champ who qualified for NCAAs at Drexel this season. He has to sneak by Lance Urbas, another Division I commit, who beat him 11-10 earlier in the season. I think Nichter flips it. But his reward is Augustine, who is kind of a style nightmare for Nichter.
Blood Round: Sammy Starr vs. Tommy Dressler and Tate Nichter vs. Tucker Hogan
Both of these matches are must-see TV. Both could go either way and two really good wrestlers are going to get left home. I like Dressler and Nichter, but can’t say I’m confident in either pick.
Finals: Trey Kibe vs. Luca Augustine
This is a possible state final. Kibe and Augustine are a contrast in styles, with Augustine being a little more in your face and Kibe sitting back and being an amazing counter wrestler. I think that Kibe’s best skills match up really well with what Augustine does well, and he gets by him in this round.
State Qualifier Predictions
1. Trey Kibe, Mifflin County
2. Luca Augustine, Waynesburg
3. Tommy Dressler, Spring Grove
4. Tate Nichter, Chambersburg