The Playoffs by the numbers (Power Ratings....all games)

Stalker

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Here's what the stats say with little else including opinion. A concoction of PF-PA, TOs when I can get them, home-away values, strength of schedule, district strengths, etc, etc. Fun breaking the teams down. Not necessarily predictive, but fun.

The Playoffs, by the numbers (Power Ratings)
6A
St. Joseph’s Prep 17.20 over Garnet Valley

BIG edge to Hawks in schedule difficulty playing Erasmus Hall, St. Peters, St. Thomas Aquinas and Roman vs G-Val’s best of CB Westx2 and DEast.
Harrisburg 6.43 over State College
SC can get sloppy allowing DEast 31, CV 31 and McDowell 50 (35 before ots) on defense plus Harrisburg routing playoff teams Wilson, Central York, Township by avg 40-8.
5A
Upper Dublin .44 over Imhotep Charter

Stat edge to Cardinals til factoring in schedule difficulty narrowing gap to toss up status.
Pine Richland 5.06 over Cocalico
Schedule difficulty and stat edge of last four games tipped it to PR vs PTraf, Woody, USC and Cathedral with Cocalico playing Elizabethtown, Gettysburg, Solanco, Exeter. Big impact with Exeter upset win narrowed gap maybe distorting.
4A
Aliquippa 21.72 over Allentown Central Catholic

Quips D stats swings it to their side significantly with ACC porous against Freedom, Naz, Whitehall, Beca and Jersey but with a strong schedule.
Bishop McDevitt 26.15 over Crestwood
Big numbers with schedule and D against that schedule (Imhotep, LaSalle, Manheim Central) despite impressive Bonner win by Crestwood with little else outside two wins vs Valley View. Strong D stats for Crest topped by McD’s vs better.
3A
Belle Vernon 10.2 over Central Martinsburg

Great D stats plus far more schedule difficulty than Central’s with no notable wins since Guilfoyle and loss to Richland at top of schedule.
Wyomissing 16.39 over Neumann Goretti
Monster D stats for Wyo vs challenging offenses of Trinity, West Perry, Danville with little to show for Neumann beyond Northwestern Lehigh win.
2A
Westinghouse 11.69 over Steel Valley

Schedule advantage to Westinghouse with big points per Steel High, Berlin and Farrell wins with impressive D stats. Tough bunch from Munhall just a little behind Westinghouse’s numbers defensively.
Southern Columbia 7.14 over Trinity
SCA adjustments per injuries/ lineup swung stats after bad start while Trinity overcame bad numbers at start with a strong finish as well against lesser comp.
1A
Canton 4.43 over Steel High

Kept double checking the math on this one! More consistent D from Canton gave them the edge here vs Rollers who can disappear defensively allowing 39 vs Westinghouse, 28 vs Trinity (minus ot pts), 35 vs Northern Lehigh.
Union 4.68 over Port Allegany
Union slipped early vs Canton 31-18 and Laurel 28-22 then rolled in playoffs notably beating Laurel 30-28, Rochester 18-16 and Bishop Canevin 26-0. Port Allegheny’s D is through the roof and the district has been more representative but still lags significantly in schedule difficulty to District-7 teams.
 
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2020sports

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stalk- this is friggin awesome- so this is kinda "point spread?" So, at face-value, the Imotep game will be the "closest" and the biggest blowout will be by Bishop McDevitt?
 

Stalker

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stalk- this is friggin awesome- so this is kinda "point spread?" So, at face-value, the Imotep game will be the "closest" and the biggest blowout will be by Bishop McDevitt?
Something like that, meaning the math suggests as much. End of the day it's a power rating that indicates a winner but not the margin. Fun part for me has always been just tearing the teams down. District 3 has good teams at all the classifications, so I've always been interested in all classes, not just the big boys. Then living in various parts of the state, Harrisburg, Oakland-Pitt, Delco, considerable time in East Stroudsburg area, etc got me interested in those teams. Hence the curse of being interested in all of them!
 

2020sports

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Dec 7, 2020
347
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Something like that, meaning the math suggests as much. End of the day it's a power rating that indicates a winner but not the margin. Fun part for me has always been just tearing the teams down. District 3 has good teams at all the classifications, so I've always been interested in all classes, not just the big boys. Then living in various parts of the state, Harrisburg, Oakland-Pitt, Delco, considerable time in East Stroudsburg area, etc got me interested in those teams. Hence the curse of being interested in all of them!
thats awesome- much respect to your knowledge!! So, sorry I am fuzzy on D3- so is that the area around Central PA right? So, I count 5 Wpial schools, how many D3 schools in the semi games?
 

Stalker

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Oct 13, 2001
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thats awesome- much respect to your knowledge!! So, sorry I am fuzzy on D3- so is that the area around Central PA right? So, I count 5 Wpial schools, how many D3 schools in the semi games?
D3 is a sprawling geographical area encompassing 10 counties with a pop of 2, 229, 201 of a total pop of 12,916, 089. You're right about the area being in central and more accurately south-central PA with many of the state's moderate sized cities including Harrisburg, Reading, Lancaster, York.

Because of this (size - # of teams), the playoffs are set up to advance the district winners to the semifinal. A more revealing breakdown of the teams shows 5 are still in the playoffs from the Mid Penn Conference with Harrisburg, McDevitt, Trinity, Steel High....and State College who is D6. Cocalico and Wyomissing are the other district champions from the Lancaster Lebanon League.

It's really cold today, 26 at 6:15 jog (I'm an idiot) but zero wind so we should be good to go for tonight's games. Even better tomorrow.
 

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