Here's what the stats say with little else including opinion. A concoction of PF-PA, TOs when I can get them, home-away values, strength of schedule, district strengths, etc, etc. Fun breaking the teams down. Not necessarily predictive, but fun.
The Playoffs, by the numbers (Power Ratings)
6A
St. Joseph’s Prep 17.20 over Garnet Valley
BIG edge to Hawks in schedule difficulty playing Erasmus Hall, St. Peters, St. Thomas Aquinas and Roman vs G-Val’s best of CB Westx2 and DEast.
Harrisburg 6.43 over State College
SC can get sloppy allowing DEast 31, CV 31 and McDowell 50 (35 before ots) on defense plus Harrisburg routing playoff teams Wilson, Central York, Township by avg 40-8.
5A
Upper Dublin .44 over Imhotep Charter
Stat edge to Cardinals til factoring in schedule difficulty narrowing gap to toss up status.
Pine Richland 5.06 over Cocalico
Schedule difficulty and stat edge of last four games tipped it to PR vs PTraf, Woody, USC and Cathedral with Cocalico playing Elizabethtown, Gettysburg, Solanco, Exeter. Big impact with Exeter upset win narrowed gap maybe distorting.
4A
Aliquippa 21.72 over Allentown Central Catholic
Quips D stats swings it to their side significantly with ACC porous against Freedom, Naz, Whitehall, Beca and Jersey but with a strong schedule.
Bishop McDevitt 26.15 over Crestwood
Big numbers with schedule and D against that schedule (Imhotep, LaSalle, Manheim Central) despite impressive Bonner win by Crestwood with little else outside two wins vs Valley View. Strong D stats for Crest topped by McD’s vs better.
3A
Belle Vernon 10.2 over Central Martinsburg
Great D stats plus far more schedule difficulty than Central’s with no notable wins since Guilfoyle and loss to Richland at top of schedule.
Wyomissing 16.39 over Neumann Goretti
Monster D stats for Wyo vs challenging offenses of Trinity, West Perry, Danville with little to show for Neumann beyond Northwestern Lehigh win.
2A
Westinghouse 11.69 over Steel Valley
Schedule advantage to Westinghouse with big points per Steel High, Berlin and Farrell wins with impressive D stats. Tough bunch from Munhall just a little behind Westinghouse’s numbers defensively.
Southern Columbia 7.14 over Trinity
SCA adjustments per injuries/ lineup swung stats after bad start while Trinity overcame bad numbers at start with a strong finish as well against lesser comp.
1A
Canton 4.43 over Steel High
Kept double checking the math on this one! More consistent D from Canton gave them the edge here vs Rollers who can disappear defensively allowing 39 vs Westinghouse, 28 vs Trinity (minus ot pts), 35 vs Northern Lehigh.
Union 4.68 over Port Allegany
Union slipped early vs Canton 31-18 and Laurel 28-22 then rolled in playoffs notably beating Laurel 30-28, Rochester 18-16 and Bishop Canevin 26-0. Port Allegheny’s D is through the roof and the district has been more representative but still lags significantly in schedule difficulty to District-7 teams.
The Playoffs, by the numbers (Power Ratings)
6A
St. Joseph’s Prep 17.20 over Garnet Valley
BIG edge to Hawks in schedule difficulty playing Erasmus Hall, St. Peters, St. Thomas Aquinas and Roman vs G-Val’s best of CB Westx2 and DEast.
Harrisburg 6.43 over State College
SC can get sloppy allowing DEast 31, CV 31 and McDowell 50 (35 before ots) on defense plus Harrisburg routing playoff teams Wilson, Central York, Township by avg 40-8.
5A
Upper Dublin .44 over Imhotep Charter
Stat edge to Cardinals til factoring in schedule difficulty narrowing gap to toss up status.
Pine Richland 5.06 over Cocalico
Schedule difficulty and stat edge of last four games tipped it to PR vs PTraf, Woody, USC and Cathedral with Cocalico playing Elizabethtown, Gettysburg, Solanco, Exeter. Big impact with Exeter upset win narrowed gap maybe distorting.
4A
Aliquippa 21.72 over Allentown Central Catholic
Quips D stats swings it to their side significantly with ACC porous against Freedom, Naz, Whitehall, Beca and Jersey but with a strong schedule.
Bishop McDevitt 26.15 over Crestwood
Big numbers with schedule and D against that schedule (Imhotep, LaSalle, Manheim Central) despite impressive Bonner win by Crestwood with little else outside two wins vs Valley View. Strong D stats for Crest topped by McD’s vs better.
3A
Belle Vernon 10.2 over Central Martinsburg
Great D stats plus far more schedule difficulty than Central’s with no notable wins since Guilfoyle and loss to Richland at top of schedule.
Wyomissing 16.39 over Neumann Goretti
Monster D stats for Wyo vs challenging offenses of Trinity, West Perry, Danville with little to show for Neumann beyond Northwestern Lehigh win.
2A
Westinghouse 11.69 over Steel Valley
Schedule advantage to Westinghouse with big points per Steel High, Berlin and Farrell wins with impressive D stats. Tough bunch from Munhall just a little behind Westinghouse’s numbers defensively.
Southern Columbia 7.14 over Trinity
SCA adjustments per injuries/ lineup swung stats after bad start while Trinity overcame bad numbers at start with a strong finish as well against lesser comp.
1A
Canton 4.43 over Steel High
Kept double checking the math on this one! More consistent D from Canton gave them the edge here vs Rollers who can disappear defensively allowing 39 vs Westinghouse, 28 vs Trinity (minus ot pts), 35 vs Northern Lehigh.
Union 4.68 over Port Allegany
Union slipped early vs Canton 31-18 and Laurel 28-22 then rolled in playoffs notably beating Laurel 30-28, Rochester 18-16 and Bishop Canevin 26-0. Port Allegheny’s D is through the roof and the district has been more representative but still lags significantly in schedule difficulty to District-7 teams.
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