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The Playoffs: All classifications write-ups and Power Ratings (5A-6A)

Stalker

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Oct 13, 2001
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5A East
Archbishop Wood D12 10-2 vs Unionville D3 13-1, Ne Philly Supersite, 12/1, 7.

Unionville got their first district title since 1994 (3A) and record setting 13th win of the season, both school records, with the District title win at Springfield 35-25. It was a close game with 2 minutes to go when another Springfield fumble was lost, their 3rd, but this time in the end zone for 6 to seal it. Reality finally caught up with Wyoming Valley West (7-7) last week where Archbishop Wood overwhelmed the Trojans, holding them to 221 total offense (175 rushing) and seven 1st downs in a 41-14 victory. Nasir Peoples had a strong outing, rushing for 175 yards and 2 scores on 16 carries. Imagine the score if 4 touchdowns weren’t wiped out by penalties. A glance at both Archbishop Wood’s schedule and Unionville’s shows quite a contrast with the Vikings stacking up against Oxbridge Academy, Bergen Catholic and LaSalle with losses to Paramus Catholic and St. Joe’s….whereas Unionville was routed by Downingtown East 45-21 and narrowly defeated Spring Ford, Academy Park and Rustin. You could say they won the Central League title as well as the Ches Mont-American with wins against Strath Haven, Marple Newtown and Springfield in the postseason. Great chemistry with this group too but not enough to get past the big, bad defending 5A champ Wood who is favored by 20.07 points.

5A West
Gateway D7 13-1 vs Manheim Central D3, 13-0, Altoona-Mansion Park, 12/1, 7.

Gateway rolled out 602 total yards of offense (!) with quarterback Brady Walker accounting for 464 of that, 330 yards through the air. Wide out Courtney Jackson caught 11 of his passes for 226 yards as Gateway overwhelmed Hollidaysburg (8-4) 49-30. Turnovers kept it close with 5 Gator fumbles and 2 interceptions. That won’t work against this week’s opponent Manheim Central who won their 17th district tile beating Governor Mifflin (12-2) 30-29. The Barons seemed in control with 14-0 and 20-7 leads. But the Mustangs are the Mustangs and put on a fierce rally (two 3rd qtr scores) taking a 29-23 lead with 4:47 to go. Sophomore Qb Evan Simon (18/29-247, 2 Tds) led a 72-yard drive to ice it with a 33-yd strike to Vinny Lester with just under 4 minutes to go. He's one of their keys with 2066 yards passing and 410 rushing on the year along with Tyler Flick at 1487 rush yards and Giovanni Lester with 684. Both are strong backs, Flick at 6-0, 190, Lester at 5-10, 200. It’s a ig offense averaging 45ppg with a D allowing 14. Gateway counters with one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the state in Brady Walker with a 64% completion rate for 3599 yards and a 38/7 Td-Pick ratio. He’s also rushed for 584 yards so that’s the challenge for the Barons while the Gators try to control their multiple offense. It’s at the Mansion where the stats lean to Manheim Central by 7.58 points.

6A East
St. Joseph’s Prep D12 12-0 vs Coatesville D1 13-1, Kottmeyer Stadium, Downingtown, 12/1, 7.

The District-3 Title game was one for the ages in a back and forth struggle that saw Coatesville’s Avery Young score on a 72-yard jaunt with a Pick-6 in the final minute of play. Wow! Just before that Garnet Valley (12-2) drove to Coatesville’s 35-yard line facing a 4th and 3 and it “felt” like a Jaguar win at that point. Emotions swung back and forth in this one! Watching it on TV, it looked like the Jags would pull it out, going on another drive after the Pick-6 until Avery Young snagged another one to end the drive and game with Coatesville on top 35-28. Total O favored Garnet Valley 428 to 295. Coatesville moves on to play defending 6A state champ St. Joseph’s Prep who had no trouble with Parkland winning 49-14. This one was over at the half where they held a 35-7 lead then skated home (running clock mid-3rd) with their 26th consecutive win. How bout them Hawks! Tough defending these guys seeing how well the offense is distributed with Qb Marquez McCoy completing 9 of 14 for 188 yards and rushing for another 44. Brandon Sanders has 4 receptions for 104 yards with running backs Marques Mason and Kolbe Burrell getting 60 and 73 yards respectively. Their defense again shined, holding Jason Worth to 23 yards on 12 carries. And that’s the difference here with SJP’s average score against “quality” opposition including Jesuit, St Peters Prep, Wood, LaSalle x2, Northeast and Parkland at 29-9, compared to 38-24 for Coatesville against Cumberland Valley, D-town East x2, Pennsbury and Garnet Valley. Leaning heavy on Garnet Valley and CV as statistical and actual “how to” templates to beat Coatesville, the numbers say its St. Joe’s by 21.24 points.

6A West
Manheim Township D3 12-1 vs Pine Richland D7 14-0, Altoona-Mansion Park, 12/2, 1.

Back in Hershey, Manheim Township proved themselves with a 30-29 win over Cumberland Valley (10-3) to win their 1st district crown. It must feel good getting out from under the long shadow cast by Wilson over the years. Township’s primary weapons, Qb Luke Emge and running back Grayson Sallade keyed the win with Emge completing 15 of 22 for 174 yards and Sallade gaining 152 yards on 30 carries. His carries largely tell the story which was to flip it on CV and just pound away. Doing as much, they controlled the lines, holding them to 94 yards rushing. This is the same Eagle team that got 188 yards rushing against Coatesville. Out in Greensburg at Hempfield High, Pine Richland took care of State College but not until the Lions gave them a 14-14 halftime scare. SC was the most talented team the Rams played to date with weapons and skill all over the field. But no one has a quarterback like Phil Jurkovec (7771 career passing) who eventually did his thing, this time to the tune of 373 total yards by completing 20 of 25 passes for 252 yards and 3 scores while rushing for 121 yards and 2 more scores! The Rams exploded in the 3rd quarter following SC’s failed onside kick, outscoring them 28-7 and that was that. On the year, he stands at 191 completions in 253 attempts, an uncanny 75% completion rate for 3279 yards. His touchdown to interception ratio is 33 to 4 while rushing for 908 more yards! A schedule read shows the Rams with a slight edge but a huge statistical advantage especially offensively pushing the number to 18.78 in their favor. Rams rule!
 
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Stalker do you have a formula or website to come up with the spreads?
 
Stalker do you have a formula or website to come up with the spreads

No new2pa, no website, just dabbling in stats (ydg/pts) to get a suggestion of outcome. Tinkering with it for some years knowing it’s impossible. It’s a major challenge determining a value for schedule difficulty, eg Palisades-CEC where CEC’s was enormously superior while Palisades had a substantial statistical advantage a lesser schedule provides. And far more variables in HS ball than College-Pro. 16-7 last week so as said, suggestive with the rating/spread having wild swings.
 

I'll try that again?
No new2pa, no website, just dabbling in stats (ydg/pts) to get a suggestion of outcome. Tinkering with it for some years knowing it’s impossible. It’s a major challenge determining a value for schedule difficulty, eg Palisades-CEC where CEC’s was enormously superior while Palisades had a substantial statistical advantage a lesser schedule provides. And far more variables in HS ball than College-Pro. 16-7 last week so as said, suggestive with the rating/spread having wild swings.

PS--you're welcome MC1975.
 
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