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SE PA Final Power Ratings Top 10 (1-5)….All classes

Stalker

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Here are the final PRs of 18’s better teams; those making the playoffs and others having a year that made the ratings, crunching numbers for 147 teams. Used year ending points for/against, home/away, classification values, wins, etc. Pretty basic stuff to arrive at an estimate. Added some thoughts, comments and will try to do a Northeast, Mid-State and Western closeout, trying to keep it shorter. Flawed for sure but if nothing else it’ll give some stats and grad/return info for ’18 and ’19. As always, feel free to jump in or on.


1 St. Joseph’s Prep, 13-0, 6A, 241.35
Hard adding much to state titles won in 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2018 with a runner up medal in 2017. But it makes you wonder what happened in 2015? At 7-3 they were good as anyone across the state, better than most, with regular season wins against Evangel Christian-LA (9-3) who lost in the Div-1 final in ot, St Ignatius-OH (5-4) who got hot late losing to St. Edward 35-28 who won Ohio’s Div-1 title a few weeks later. And St. Joseph Regional-NJ (8-4), who beat St. Ed’s 22-20 at Lakewood in the regular season then lost to Don Bosco Prep 21-10 in the Non Public-Group 4 final 21-10. Impressive resume but they lost by a point to LaSalle in the district semifinal after taking them apart in the regular season 49-24. LaSalle then lost to Parkland 16-13 (Devante Cross, Kenny Yeboah!) in overtime with the Trojans losing to Pittsburgh Central Catholic 21-18 when a belated comeback fell short in coach Jim Morgans final game. That’s what happened in 2015 and how close they came to six straight appearances in the final.
About the past season, while it may not have been their most star studded lineup, it was unique, setting scoring records averaging 46ppg, backed by another shut down defense allowing 14 a game. The 7-0 regular season included wins against St. Peter’s Prep, Good Counsel, LaSalle and Archbishop Wood, averaging 53ppg while allowing 17. The post season saw them go 6-0 against Roman, LaSalle and Northeast to win District-12 6A, then move on for convincing victories against Freedom (12-2, D11) 42-14, Pine Richland (11-3, D7) 37-0 and Harrisburg (13-2, D3) 40-20 in the final.
With Coach Gabe Infante now gone, the new regime inherits almost all of last year’s team that was young throughout the lineup. That’s probably one of the better kept secrets across the state, just how young the Hawks were last year. The offense returns Qb Kyle McCord who threw for 2883 yards at 67% for 35 touchdowns, and receivers Marvin Harrison who had 50 catches for 724 yards, Anthony Rightly and Sahmir Hagans. Running back Kolbe Burrell who rushed for 923 yards is back along with Malik Cooper. They’ll run behind a veteran line that returns nearly intact; Matt McGeary (6-2, 295, sr), Casey Stephenson (6-2, 305, sr), RJ McKee (6-0, 265, sr), Matt Lombardi (6-6, 275,sr) and I believe Anthony Leneghan (6-2, 250, sr….TE?) who starts on the DL where four return. Marquez Mason’s 553 rush yards on 94 attempts and 576 yards in receptions on 41 catches will be missed as well as Johnny Freeman’s 847 yards in receptions on 51 completions. The linebacking corps will be special with Jeremiah Trotter and Liam Johnson, with the DB returning Anthony Rightly. With the front they have, who’s worried about the secondary! Seriously, the DB appears to be the only concern on that side. At the conclusion of the 2018 season, coach Gabe Infante moved on to become an assistant at Temple after 9 years at SJP’s helm, guiding the program to a 91-22 (80.5%) record. Former OC Tim Roken stepped in as head coach. Coach Roken joined the staff in 2010 as QB/WR coach, then OC in 2011 until named assistant head coach in 2012, suggesting the change will be seamless, having the Hawks ready for another run at States.
2 Coatesville 14-1, 6A, 232.35
The Red Raiders set a record at 14 wins last year after going 13-2 the previous year and 11-2 the year before that. The school is on a historic run, enjoying particular success since the arrival of head coach Matt Ortega in 2009. Coach has not had a losing season, going 102-25 (80.2%) during his ten year reign. Last year’s team ripped off 14 straight, winning their 2nd consecutive district title before dropping a 27-24 rematch to Harrisburg in the 6A semifinal. Along the way, they beat ten teams with winning records with a combined won/loss of 93-26, while averaging 44ppg by year’s end for the second straight year. The offense was then explosive, blowing out Harrisburg, Rustin, Downingtown West, Downingtown East twice then Garnet Valley and North Penn by an average score of 42-12. The defense also stood out, tying a 14 year low of 12ppg, their best since 2004’s 11-1 team that lost to Neshaminy (13-2) in the district semifinal 23-20. The Skins then eliminated Easton and North Penn before falling to Pitt CC in the final. After passing for 2261 yards and rushing for another 958, Ricky Ortega’s return will again have Coatesville in the mix for another strong run, especially knowing lead receiver Dapree Bryant returns after tallying 1009 yards on 52 receptions. He is also integral to special teams in punt and kick-off returns. Aaron Young’s 1641 yards rushing will be sorely missed although others got significant time at many positions with all their games mercy ruled except the last one. Still, they had significant losses especially along a veteran O-Line that was one of the best of the Ortega era. Chris McBride (6-2, 250), Dylan Nichols (6-3, 290, OL/DT) and Ricky Santiago (6-5, 320) were bulwarks. The D will especially miss LB Nick Thompson (6-0, 210) and 4 of the 5 DLs; DE Tione Holmes (6-3, 235), DT Ayden Geter (6-1, 260), DE Jimmy Limper (6-2, 205) and DT Dylan Nichols (6-3, 290). NG Jon Meeks (5-10, 240) returns and DT Jake Walton (6-3, 250). LBs John Ruttman, Lamar Brown, Connor Barthmaier and Derek Seagreaves plus DBs Frankie De Los Santos, Abdul Stewart and Dapree Bryant return. The cupboard is far from bare but they did graduate substantial numbers from an outstanding somewhat unheralded defense.
3 North Penn 202.18, D1, 13-1
Stepping back for a moment, you have to wonder what the impact was losing to Garnet Valley in districts at the close of ‘17 by a single point, 36-35. That’s where they blew a 35-7 lead as the 6-seed with 3rd seeded G-Val storming back to score 28 unanswered points in the 3rd quarter. More than any game, this one exemplified just how porous the Knights defense was. It was historically poor, finishing the year with a 27ppg average. Ending a season like that causes real soul searching and one heck of an off season where staff and players rededicated themselves to the task at hand. Whatever transpired, it resulted in a rebuilt team coming out strong while breaking in a new O-Line and quarterback. Serious stuff. Solomon Robinson (6-2, 190, sr) transferred in from Jersey to fill the void under center, while the team ultimately survived rebuilding the entire offensive line. Returning starter Shamar Edwards gave them a weapon at running back along with Julian White. Add in Jon Haynes at Receiver/DB to see they had great skill returning. Robinson completed the picture. MLB Nate Brown (5-10, 210, jr), DB Julian White and LB Nick Intrieri (6-3, 220, sr) gave them solid talent on the defensive front. I believe DL Cory Keim (6-0, 215, jr) and RJ MacNamara (6-3, 225, jr) started or were in the rotation with WR/DB Evan Spann (6-1, 185, jr) and LB Eric Laughton (6-0, 180, sr). So they had a good core returning for 2018. The schedule as always was unforgiving, opening with their old rival Neshaminy. But they won by a point, 34-33 (poetic justice....G-Val?), then beat LaSalle 21-13. Wins against challenging opponents Pennsbury, Pennridge, Central Bucks East and Council Rock South (2 overtimes) said the OL and Qb spots were going to be ok. So did the ability to win the close ones throughout the season, winning five games by seven points or less. This included the opener vs Neshaminy, CR South 27-24 in double overtime and Souderton 29-27. Souderton (4-6) caught fire after a homecoming win against Tennett by defeating both Pennridge and CB East on the road before taking the Knights to the brink. Football! They advanced to the district final by defeating Ridley, Neshaminy again and Downingtown West before losing to Coatesville 42-13. The coming season will see another substantial graduation of key players including Qb Robinson who passed for 1153 yards and rushing for another 522. Running backs Shamar Edwards with 1675 rush yards and Julian White with 653 are also gone. Wide out Jon Haynes’ 475 yards will also be missed. And once again the entire OL needs replaced with the graduation of Noah Boast (6-0, 260), Ed Harkins (5-11, 225), Noah Fox (6-0, 225), Jake Walton (6-3, 265) and Don Stiles (6-3, 275). That was a fine team but not their most powerful offense by any stretch. Running off 13 straight wins is profound in anyone’s book but it wasn’t the result of an overwhelming offense. Their knack for winning close games was as much a result of great team chemistry as it was a vastly improved defense that allowed 19ppg against 27 the year before. The offense was actually one of their more pedestrian at 29ppg, their lowest in five years. But it was diverse with multiple weapons….and balanced. With Coach Dick Beck entering his 18th season at 188-42 (81.7%), they’ll likely field a team capable of winning the SOL-Continental while challenging for district honors. They always do!
4 Archbishop Wood 183.61, D12, 9-4
The Vikings put together their 16th consecutive winning season despite another difficult opening slate, getting off to a 0-2 start. They lost the opener to McDonogh School (3-6, MIAA) 16-7 under their new coach Hakeem Sule. Coach Sule replaced Dom Damico who coached at Cardinal Dougherty (PCL) for four years, winning Coach of the Year in 1992. He was 144-74 at McDonogh and 173-98 overall. Coach Sule had the Eagles charging hard at Tennett, handling Wood’s vaulted O-Line with 7 sacks. The following week saw them lose to always strong Bergen Catholic (10-2) of the North Jersey Super, 21-7. Thereon they ran off four straight, beating Pope John XXll (2-9, North Jersey Super) 22-20 and Archbishop Spalding (7-3-1, tied Good Counsel, MIAA) 20-7, before league action against Roman, winning 42-0 and Archbishop Ryan, winning 27-7, sitting at 4-2 before St. Joe’s.
Note; you might go easy judging records of opponents until reviewing schedules with Bergen and Pope John XXll playing in one of the toughest conferences in the country against Don Bosco Prep (6-5), St. Joseph Regional (10-2) and St. Peter’s Prep (7-4), plus non-conference Grayson-GA (10-3) and undefeated Red Bank Catholic-NJ (11-0)….while Spalding and McDonogh were banging heads with Malvern Prep (11-0), St. Anthony’s-NY (7-2), Berks Catholic (10-3), Calvert Hall-MD (13-1) and St. Vincent-St Mary-OH (7-3). Tough bunch. And when you factor in the injury/absence of Qb Jake Coylar (vs McDonogh) for 7 weeks, well spelled by Jake Ross, their 9-4 outing wasn’t bad. But it did bring an end to the double digit winning season streak at ten and was their lowest win total since going 9-3 in 2007. Sticking with the stats, their record from 2008 through last year was an eye popping 132-23, 85.1%. Looking to next season; after returning two to the line last year, the coming season looks like a total rebuild. There are always others that got time but they’ll miss C/DT Luke Stengel (6-4, 260), OT/DT Connor Bishop (6-3, 265), OG/DL Nick Vitelli (6-3, 245), OT/DT John Prieto (5-11,220), OT Sean Buck (6-2, 235), Brett Gross (5-11, 225) and Bill Cook (6-2, 220). But like Garnet Valley, they seem to replace quality lineman consistently. They also lose Colyar, a 3 year starter and Ross but return running back Tom Santiago who rushed for 1695 yards. They haven’t had a losing season since 2002’s 2-8 campaign.
5 Downingtown West 183.26, D1, 11-2
The Whippets were one of the best turnarounds in the East last year, getting their highest win total in ten years and advancing to the district semifinal before losing to North Penn 35-21. In 2008 at 11-2 they also lost to North Penn (13-1) in the semifinal 51-21. But those were different times with the program rolling out double digit winning seasons in 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 (41-8), after the school split in 2003. In contrast, 2018’s team was rebounding from two non-winning seasons, having gone 4-6 in 2016 and 5-5 in 2017. Coach Milano is 116-64. But last year had its challenges with a relatively young group and the loss of quarterback Will Howard (6-4, 210, jr) for the year against Coatesville (fractured wrist) late in the first half of game seven. He was having a strong year, completing 61% for 1306 yards with a Td/Pick ratio of 12 to 2. Another big story is how well MLB Ryan Wetzel stepped in for Howard, completing 59% for 774 yards while adding another dimension with his running ability. At 6-2, 230, he was a load, rumbling for 306 yards. Heck of a job! Speaking of fullbacks, Tyler Alston returns (6-1, 220. Jr, 568 yards) with a nice back in Tyriq Lewis (5-8, 160, jr, 1264 yards). Add in a recovered and healthy Qb Howard, a few lineman featuring Beau Bryan (6-2, 275, jr) and a strong D corps (+400 tackles back) including egs….TE/DE Jackson Lunburg (6-6, 215), DE Max Hale (6-0, 195), DL Sean Pelkisson (6-2, 240) to know they’ll threaten again next year. They graduated just 15 seniors, making them and St. Joe’s two of the most successful young teams in the East. Last year’s team reversed the failures of 2017 (5-5) where they fielded their worst offense at 23ppg since 2005’s 4-7 team that scored 22 points a game. The defense was improved by 9 points a game, making it one of the most significant turnarounds in the state. They should be a legitimate threat to Coatesville’s dominance in the Ches Mont and beyond this season.
 
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Stalk -

Thanks for putting these together as it does whet the appetite for what currently seems a long way off (the kickoff of the 2019 season).

St. Joe's looks like it might not miss a beat!

PS I see your rating system had the 'Skins at 7 (in the other section). Although I never bet against my beloved Blue and Red at 8-4 that might be a bit generous except for the 3 close losses (their kicking game really hurt in 2018).
 
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Wood leading rusher Santiago a Junior, but may not return to Wood.
Yes of course they return him and thanks for catching that. Will be interesting seeing where he lands if he leaves.
 
Where would he go?
Yes of course they return him and thanks for catching that. Will be interesting seeing where he lands if he leaves.
Where would he go? He would be ineligible for state playoffs and first 30 days of practice I believe. This would make no sense unless tuition or family is moving.
 
It would also be Santiago's 4th school in 4 years. Is he really going to give up playoffs and 1700 yards for that? That would be a shame.
 
Skinner, I rechecked the top 10 to find an error in Garnet Valley’s totals that elevates them to 7 dropping Skins to 8. Skins may still seem high at 8 per their 8-4 W/L but there was a drop off after the top few teams this year with great parity thereon.

Also seems questionable having Skins ahead of Truman despite Truman beating them 27-26….and they do come out in a dead heat against “same competitive comp played”….DWest, CRS, Psb, Pridge. Didn’t count blowouts to lesser lights Abington, Tennett, Bensalem, CRN. Where Neshaminy edged them was playing a more difficult schedule; North Penn twice in competitive losses and swamping a decent Haverford team despite losing bad to DWest, who Truman played tight, and Truman beating them by a point. Skins had NPx2 and Haverford whereas Truman played Methacton and Avon Grove. Like I said, it’s just an estimate. I don’t agree with all the placements either but thought I’d show where the math had them realizing stats are shaky!
 
Wood leading rusher Santiago a Junior, but may not return to Wood.
Wood is already in a bind based on their returning roster IMO. If Santiago leaves it will doom the Vikings next year which is going to be very challenging even with him.
 
I noticed the same thing. Last years roster was filled with seniors. It may be a rough few years in Warminster.
 
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