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Power Ratings: District One Playoffs

Stalker

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Oct 13, 2001
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Here’s what the math says plus some research/thoughts. Teams on left are home.


1 Neshaminy vs 16 Spring-Ford
All kinds of momentum on a 7 game roll and coming off the Pennsbury win vs rebuilt Rams who are way off last year’s pace of 42ppg to 13 allowed at 29-18 this year. Last time they put consecutive wins together was against 3-7 Norristown and 0-10 Methacton. Conversely, Skins have quality wins in playoff-like setting against CB South in ot and Pennsbury by a point. Rams quality win is Exeter Twp 6-3 (a shell of last year’s team) with losses to Unionville, Wilson, Perk Val and OJ Roberts. McAndrew (only a soph!) vs Pergine could light things up!. The math says Skins by 7.59 points. (.59?) Roll Tribe.

8 Pennsbury vs 9 Central Bucks South
Great turnaround season for Falcons (5-5 last year) with a 3-2 W/L against Academy Park, Penn Wood, North Penn, Truman and Neshaminy. Nothing Titan about South’s offense with 2nd straight year of low octane offense; this year’s at 24ppg and a 1-3 record vs North Penn, Neshaminy, CB West and Pennridge. Both lost to North Penn Falcons by 9, South by 31. The math says Birds of Prey swoop in for a 8.50 win.

4 Coatesville vs 13 Harry S Truman
Truman won’t be able to keep up with Coatesville’s offense, not with that system putting them in harm’s way here. While they’re 1-3 against Avon Grove, Neshaminy, Pennsbury and Abington, Coatesville is 4-1 against Rustin, Downingtown East, BS Shanahan and Avon Grove. Assume they learned something losing to ground and pound Cumberland Valley weeks ago. The math says Raiders rule by 18.49 points.

5 Downingtown East vs 12 Owen J Roberts
OJ’s stats skew the numbers profoundly allowing 99 points total against a PAC schedule but no question they’re a veteran group allowing 10ppg with 9 starters returned to the defense. They return 8 to the offense with a veteran Qb, Dawson Stuart, 6-4, 215, a senior. Against quality they are 1-1, being routed by Perk Val 27-0 then shutting out Spring Ford 33-0. Meanwhile Downingtown had blowout wins against North Penn 61-44, Shanahan 34-7, Unionville 45-21 and beat Avon Grove 35-25. Big stage and venue for OJR (deer in headlights?). Cougars roar by 27.36 points after Wildcats battle hard.

2 Perkiomen Valley vs 15 Penn Wood
Credit Perk Val scheduling a decent non-conference slate of Downingtown West, Upper Dublin, Pennridge and Interboro, going 3-1 and routing fellow PAC members OJR 27-0, Spring Ford 28-7 and Pottsgrove 43-26 in the PAC title game. Penn Wood went 2-1 against Pennsbury, Academy Park and Interboro. Patriots did not travel well at Souderton and Pennsbury early and won’t score a lot of points here. Could be going into a hornets nest. PV by 12.83.

7 Pennridge vs 10 Quakertown
Tougher schedule to Rams beating Perk Val, CB South and West with a cumulative score of 125-81 with Qtown 0-2 against CB West and Upper Moreland by a combined score of 14-55. The math has it going to the Rams by 9.97 points but it’s a fierce rivalry where all the rules are thrown out the window.

3 Garnet Valley vs 14 CB West
G-Val has better result against a comparable schedule going 5-1 vs Rustin, Upper Darby, Haverford, Marple and Springfield while CB West went 1-3 vs Qtown (only win), North Penn, CB South and Pennridge. Last year’s wins at CB South 21-14, Neshaminy 42-14, Perk Val 44-27 and 48-38 loss to North Penn says G-Val can hang with anyone in the district. Jags by 8.32 pts.

6 North Penn vs 11 Haverford
A glance at stats shows NP’s impressive offense (especially measured against last year’s grads) at 42ppg verses Haverford’s defense that allows 11ppg. But there is little doubt Knight’s schedule of LaSalle, Dtown East, Pennsbury, CB West, Pennridge and CB South trumps Fords wins against Ridley and Marple….and losses to G-Val and Springfield. Haverford’s D (and math) says this is a war with Knight’s winning by 7.62 points. Could get interesting.
 
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Out of these 8 games, which teams, meaning multiple, should be on upset alert? My guess is Pennsbury after last week's tough loss. I think Springford may hang tough for awhile but Neshaminy should pull the game out in the second half. If OJ can throw the ball then they can stay in the game but DEasts running game is unlike any they have seen this year. Look for Chesmont heavyweight to wear OJ down. All other matchups appear to be leaning favorable towards the favorites.
 
Here’s what the math says plus some research/thoughts. Teams on left are home.


1 Neshaminy vs 16 Spring-Ford
All kinds of momentum on a 7 game roll and coming off the Pennsbury win vs rebuilt Rams who are way off last year’s pace of 42ppg to 13 allowed at 29-18 this year. Last time they put consecutive wins together was against 3-7 Norristown and 0-10 Methacton. Conversely, Skins have quality wins in playoff-like setting against CB South in ot and Pennsbury by a point. Rams quality win is Exeter Twp 6-3 (a shell of last year’s team) with losses to Unionville, Wilson, Perk Val and OJ Roberts. McAndrew (only a soph!) vs Pergine could light things up!. The math says Skins by 7.59 points. (.59?) Roll Tribe.

8 Pennsbury vs 9 Central Bucks South
Great turnaround season for Falcons (5-5 last year) with a 3-2 W/L against Academy Park, Penn Wood, North Penn, Truman and Neshaminy. Nothing Titan about South’s offense with 2nd straight year of low octane offense; this year’s at 24ppg and a 1-3 record vs North Penn, Neshaminy, CB West and Pennridge. Both lost to North Penn Falcons by 9, South by 31. The math says Birds of Prey swoop in for a 8.50 win.

4 Coatesville vs 13 Harry S Truman
Truman won’t be able to keep up with Coatesville’s offense, not with that system putting them in harm’s way here. While they’re 1-3 against Avon Grove, Neshaminy, Pennsbury and Abington, Coatesville is 4-1 against Rustin, Downingtown East, BS Shanahan and Avon Grove. Assume they learned something losing to ground and pound Cumberland Valley weeks ago. The math says Raiders rule by 18.49 points.

5 Downingtown East vs 12 Owen J Roberts
OJ’s stats skew the numbers profoundly allowing 99 points total against a PAC schedule but no question they’re a veteran group allowing 10ppg with 9 starters returned to the defense. They return 8 to the offense with a veteran Qb, Dawson Stuart, 6-4, 215, a senior. Against quality they are 1-1, being routed by Perk Val 27-0 then shutting out Spring Ford 33-0. Meanwhile Downingtown had blowout wins against North Penn 61-44, Shanahan 34-7, Unionville 45-21 and beat Avon Grove 35-25. Big stage and venue for OJR (deer in headlights?). Cougars roar by 27.36 points after Wildcats battle hard.

2 Perkiomen Valley vs 15 Penn Wood
Credit Perk Val scheduling a decent non-conference slate of Downingtown West, Upper Dublin, Pennridge and Interboro, going 3-1 and routing fellow PAC members OJR 27-0, Spring Ford 28-7 and Pottsgrove 43-26 in the PAC title game. Penn Wood went 2-1 against Pennsbury, Academy Park and Interboro. Patriots did not travel well at Souderton and Pennsbury early and won’t score a lot of points here. Could be going into a hornets nest. PV by 12.83.

7 Pennridge vs 10 Quakertown
Tougher schedule to Rams beating Perk Val, CB South and West with a cumulative score of 125-81 with Qtown 0-2 against CB West and Upper Moreland by a combined score of 14-55. The math has it going to the Rams by 9.97 points but it’s a fierce rivalry where all the rules are thrown out the window.

3 Garnet Valley vs 14 CB West
G-Val has better result against a comparable schedule going 5-1 vs Rustin, Upper Darby, Haverford, Marple and Springfield while CB West went 1-3 vs Qtown (only win), North Penn, CB South and Pennridge. Last year’s wins at CB South 21-14, Neshaminy 42-14, Perk Val 44-27 and 48-38 loss to North Penn says G-Val can hang with anyone in the district. Jags by 8.32 pts.

6 North Penn vs 11 Haverford
A glance at stats shows NP’s impressive offense (especially measured against last year’s grads) at 42ppg verses Haverford’s defense that allows 11ppg. But there is little doubt Knight’s schedule of LaSalle, Dtown East, Pennsbury, CB West, Pennridge and CB South trumps Fords wins against Ridley and Marple….and losses to G-Val and Springfield. Haverford’s D (and math) says this is a war with Knight’s winning by 7.62 points. Could get interesting.
Nice job. If Haverford keeps it within 14 I’m buying you a round Stalker.
 
Stalk -

As always, it was a treat reading your review.

Yeah there’s usually an upset or two IADelco. I might lean to Rams-Qtown, maybe PSB-CBS, especially being old SOL adversaries over the years. Good point on DtEast, I like the way they bludgeon you with all those backs. Cumberland Valley does the same back home. Fresh legs!

Ches….if Fords can get just a little offense going the D might keep them in the game, if not, even the best of D’s (Clemson-Syracuse) wear down but I hear you.

Skinner Man….and Ches, my pleasure. Been hanging out in the West this year since that part of the state gets little attention. Ok, have a great weekend. Hopefully PSU regroups after last week. Spartans can be a load.
 
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I'm not sure I'd consider Pennsbury-CB South or even Quakertown-Pennridge as upsets. I think those are fairly evenly matched games. I wouldn't be surprised to see either of the lower seeds win.
 
I'll be shocked if OJR can stay within 4 TDs, and could be much worse. I know nothing about PennWood, but PV is not the same team of the previous few years. They did seem to get relttively favorable matchups in the first two rounds, although they did lose to potential 2nd round opponent Pennridge 28-0 in week 2.
 
Predictions in Delco times favor stalker view of close game between np and Haverford. Just can't see it. We shall see.
 
Predictions in Delco times favor stalker view of close game between np and Haverford. Just can't see it. We shall see.
I feel it's understated the amount of progress and maturity the Knights have shown this year and that they are well under rated so a blow out wouldn't surprise many of us. They are after all the Alpha of the district. But as a former linebacker I am a sucker for defense giving it too much play I'm sure.
 
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