Over the past few days, there have been several developments on the world political front, which will have a profound effect on economies, trade flows, and ultimately who makes the rules for world finance/trade over the coming decades. This is not an all-inclusive list, but consider a sampling of the changes announced only this month.
Russian President Putin was in Egypt, talking to a wannabe U.S. ally. General el-Sisi, the Egyptian leader who threw out the Muslim Brotherhood, who in turn threw out Mubarak, is a fan of the U.S. but for the past several years, has been seemingly out of favor. So he is talking to the Russians.
In a shocking change of allegiance, Philippine President Duterte, at a state function in China announced economic separation from the United States. “America has lost now. I have realigned myself in your ideological flow,” at a business forum in Beijing. (1) Then he noted he may go to Russia to speak with Putin and tell him “it’s the three of us against the world, China, Philippines, an Russia.” (2) While in China, the Philippine government reached thirteen co-operation agreements with China, on topics as diverse as transport, tourism, financing, infrastructure, agriculture etc. Manila may have just hit the financial jackpot and strategically, it makes America's Asia pivot more difficult.
Turkey has been a member of NATO, as secular state of about 100 million people who are mostly Muslim. Half in the Mideast and partly in Europe, Turkey is the land bridge to Western Europe from Iraq, Iran, etc. In recent months, it appears Prime Minister Erdogan has not only seen off a coup attempt, he seems intent on going back to a re-creation of the old Ottoman Empire. The Ottoman Empire was not secular. Roughly, 45,000 teachers have been removed to be replaced in schools by more theological training. Judges have been sacked by the thousands. Russia, I believe has offered Turkey a deal whereby an alignment with Moscow results in Russian weapons being sold to Ankara, China helps with the funding and entry into the Shanghai Co-operation Council will be on the table. Closing of the Syrian/Turkish border is part of the deal, thus allowing Russia to potentially end the war in Syria. The way in which Russia is behaving in Syria suggests the next attack on Aleppo is meant to be the last.
If Turkey becomes a full-fledged ally of Russia, how that would work with NATO is problematic. What worries me even more is how NATO and the U.S. will respond to this strategically and in the short term, how will they act if Russia does attempt to end the war by Christmas. There are reports of large-scale movement of ships/plane in recent days in the Indian Ocean, while the UK newspapers are filled with pictures of a 10-ship Russian fleet preparing to sail down the English Channel on its way to the Eastern Mediterranean.
I believe the next U.S. President, no matter who it is, will be faced with at least three major issues. There will very likely be more than three, but right now, I believe three are baked in the cake.
A recession will arrive in the next three years, second a financial bear market will occur in the next three years and lastly I think the next President will have to fight a war. The war may have already started. Unlike the last war of global significance, the Western democracies have institutional structures in place to be formidable. Financially, the West has significant resources, but also a lot of debt. In a world as connected as this one with global capital flows rampant, capital knowing few borders and the ability to freeze and economically via financial means, the battlefield is not limited.
In the midst of this, the U.S. election candidates are busily slinging mud. They should be talking about how to save the world power structure which has basically delivered peace in Europe for seventy years, peace with Japan/China and world record improvements in living standards, quantum increases in knowledge and technologies which were unheard of twenty years ago. All this will be thrown away if a new dark age descends on the world and I am convinced that is where some state actors would like to go. A leader is needed. The old saying is “cometh the hour, cometh the man.” I just hope he shows up in time, once again.
For the three stooges, if they are even capable of reading this far, when he says "a leader is needed" it's a direct rap on Incapabama. This is where the moves, or lack thereof, of a president have long-lasting impact, well after he leaves office. Secondary, world powers sense extreme weakness in obama (and Hillary and Kerry as Secretaries of State) and they act accordingly.
Russian President Putin was in Egypt, talking to a wannabe U.S. ally. General el-Sisi, the Egyptian leader who threw out the Muslim Brotherhood, who in turn threw out Mubarak, is a fan of the U.S. but for the past several years, has been seemingly out of favor. So he is talking to the Russians.
In a shocking change of allegiance, Philippine President Duterte, at a state function in China announced economic separation from the United States. “America has lost now. I have realigned myself in your ideological flow,” at a business forum in Beijing. (1) Then he noted he may go to Russia to speak with Putin and tell him “it’s the three of us against the world, China, Philippines, an Russia.” (2) While in China, the Philippine government reached thirteen co-operation agreements with China, on topics as diverse as transport, tourism, financing, infrastructure, agriculture etc. Manila may have just hit the financial jackpot and strategically, it makes America's Asia pivot more difficult.
Turkey has been a member of NATO, as secular state of about 100 million people who are mostly Muslim. Half in the Mideast and partly in Europe, Turkey is the land bridge to Western Europe from Iraq, Iran, etc. In recent months, it appears Prime Minister Erdogan has not only seen off a coup attempt, he seems intent on going back to a re-creation of the old Ottoman Empire. The Ottoman Empire was not secular. Roughly, 45,000 teachers have been removed to be replaced in schools by more theological training. Judges have been sacked by the thousands. Russia, I believe has offered Turkey a deal whereby an alignment with Moscow results in Russian weapons being sold to Ankara, China helps with the funding and entry into the Shanghai Co-operation Council will be on the table. Closing of the Syrian/Turkish border is part of the deal, thus allowing Russia to potentially end the war in Syria. The way in which Russia is behaving in Syria suggests the next attack on Aleppo is meant to be the last.
If Turkey becomes a full-fledged ally of Russia, how that would work with NATO is problematic. What worries me even more is how NATO and the U.S. will respond to this strategically and in the short term, how will they act if Russia does attempt to end the war by Christmas. There are reports of large-scale movement of ships/plane in recent days in the Indian Ocean, while the UK newspapers are filled with pictures of a 10-ship Russian fleet preparing to sail down the English Channel on its way to the Eastern Mediterranean.
I believe the next U.S. President, no matter who it is, will be faced with at least three major issues. There will very likely be more than three, but right now, I believe three are baked in the cake.
A recession will arrive in the next three years, second a financial bear market will occur in the next three years and lastly I think the next President will have to fight a war. The war may have already started. Unlike the last war of global significance, the Western democracies have institutional structures in place to be formidable. Financially, the West has significant resources, but also a lot of debt. In a world as connected as this one with global capital flows rampant, capital knowing few borders and the ability to freeze and economically via financial means, the battlefield is not limited.
In the midst of this, the U.S. election candidates are busily slinging mud. They should be talking about how to save the world power structure which has basically delivered peace in Europe for seventy years, peace with Japan/China and world record improvements in living standards, quantum increases in knowledge and technologies which were unheard of twenty years ago. All this will be thrown away if a new dark age descends on the world and I am convinced that is where some state actors would like to go. A leader is needed. The old saying is “cometh the hour, cometh the man.” I just hope he shows up in time, once again.
For the three stooges, if they are even capable of reading this far, when he says "a leader is needed" it's a direct rap on Incapabama. This is where the moves, or lack thereof, of a president have long-lasting impact, well after he leaves office. Secondary, world powers sense extreme weakness in obama (and Hillary and Kerry as Secretaries of State) and they act accordingly.
