D1 Playoff Predictions
- Thread starter MPChesco
- Start date
Great to be back! As always looking for to IA Delco's feedback just as much as I miss Joe Kane point system! I may be going down to Ridley Stoga friday night . Heading to Dolans before the game for a few then ordering an Inside out from DD fried not baked. Might try to catch the second half of Saints Knights as well then to Duffers to meet KingChesco and MPchesco hopefully IA can make it out. Next week I might make it out the Ville!
In looking at the 6A playoff picture, I think the biggest question is can Garnet Valley finally break through and win their first ever District 1 6A title? Who if anyone can get in their way?
I'll keep it simple and do the first week. Love to hear from some more people about District 1 6A playoffs. Board is so quiet I honestly barely check it anymore.
Garnet Valley crushes Haverford High.
Pennridge trips up CB West and moves on to face Garnet Valley next week.
Downingtown East rebounds from being bullied by Coatesville last week in the Chestmont championship to defeat an undermanned Springford team.
Quakertown/Souderton is a tough one to pick because they are such heated rivals. They already played once this year. I'll side with Quakertown to move on and travel to Kottemeyer next week. It will be close though.
Perk Valley is a really good football team. Could easily be undefeated right now. They should easily take care of business and handle CB East.
Coatesville will knock off Owen J. Roberts at home. They will have a rematch against Perk Valley next week. Look for Coatesville to be on upset alert next week. I could see Perk Valley sneaking into the District Final.
Ridley beats Conestoga at home in a rematch from last week to take on North Penn who should also take care of business over another rematch from last week.
Love to hear from some who see it differently. Maybe King Chesco or Slayer, Mater Dei Warrior want to check in along with Chesmont, 4iTech and MPChesco.
I also like Malvern over Episcopal tonight in what should be the Inter Ac Championship.
I'll keep it simple and do the first week. Love to hear from some more people about District 1 6A playoffs. Board is so quiet I honestly barely check it anymore.
Garnet Valley crushes Haverford High.
Pennridge trips up CB West and moves on to face Garnet Valley next week.
Downingtown East rebounds from being bullied by Coatesville last week in the Chestmont championship to defeat an undermanned Springford team.
Quakertown/Souderton is a tough one to pick because they are such heated rivals. They already played once this year. I'll side with Quakertown to move on and travel to Kottemeyer next week. It will be close though.
Perk Valley is a really good football team. Could easily be undefeated right now. They should easily take care of business and handle CB East.
Coatesville will knock off Owen J. Roberts at home. They will have a rematch against Perk Valley next week. Look for Coatesville to be on upset alert next week. I could see Perk Valley sneaking into the District Final.
Ridley beats Conestoga at home in a rematch from last week to take on North Penn who should also take care of business over another rematch from last week.
Love to hear from some who see it differently. Maybe King Chesco or Slayer, Mater Dei Warrior want to check in along with Chesmont, 4iTech and MPChesco.
I also like Malvern over Episcopal tonight in what should be the Inter Ac Championship.
Two games that should be very good tonight are CBW vs Pennridge and Qtown vs Souderton. Souderton was tied going into the 4th quarter against Quakertown and with the familiarity and solid staff at Souderton it should be a great game.
Pennridge certainly feels like they gave one away vs West (coach said so publicly) and West feels like they let Pennridge stay in the game with a fumbled snap inside their own 5 and a wide open dropped TD pass on a drive where they came up empty. No way to predict which way this goes but should be another close game. Will the two staffs look to make a lot of adjustments or will they both just line up and try to run each other over? You can 100% count on this being a VERY physical game.
Pennridge certainly feels like they gave one away vs West (coach said so publicly) and West feels like they let Pennridge stay in the game with a fumbled snap inside their own 5 and a wide open dropped TD pass on a drive where they came up empty. No way to predict which way this goes but should be another close game. Will the two staffs look to make a lot of adjustments or will they both just line up and try to run each other over? You can 100% count on this being a VERY physical game.
R1:
1. GV over 16. Hford (GV big)
9. PR over 8. CBW (Rams win the rematch)
4. DTE over 13. SF (East will overpower the Rams)
5. QK over 12. SD (Qtown wins again)
2. NP over 15. CBS (Knights big again)
7. Rid over 10. Stoga (Ridley big, won't be as close as last week)
3. CVille over 14. OJR (Red Raiders dominate)
6. PV over 11. CBE (PV continues to hum along)
R2:
1. GV over 9. PR
5. QK over 4. DTE
2. NP over 7. Rid
6. PV over 3. CVille
Semis:
1. GV over 5. QK
2. NP over 6. PV
Final:
1. GV over 2. NP (GV head and shoulders above the rest of the field)
1. GV over 16. Hford (GV big)
9. PR over 8. CBW (Rams win the rematch)
4. DTE over 13. SF (East will overpower the Rams)
5. QK over 12. SD (Qtown wins again)
2. NP over 15. CBS (Knights big again)
7. Rid over 10. Stoga (Ridley big, won't be as close as last week)
3. CVille over 14. OJR (Red Raiders dominate)
6. PV over 11. CBE (PV continues to hum along)
R2:
1. GV over 9. PR
5. QK over 4. DTE
2. NP over 7. Rid
6. PV over 3. CVille
Semis:
1. GV over 5. QK
2. NP over 6. PV
Final:
1. GV over 2. NP (GV head and shoulders above the rest of the field)
I like West tonight against Pennridge. I always give the advantage to the better-coached team in a rematch. In this case, I believe that’s West. I think it’ll be close, just like the first game, but I see West pulling away late. Give me the Bucks by 14.
I think GV is the class of the filed, but be wary of their defense. Ive seen them several times this year and while excellently coached, they are woefully slow on defense. So any squad with an abundance of team speed will give them trouble. Without slighting any other teams, the squads with and abundance or team speed are N Penn, Coatesville and Ridley ( Ridley put 30+ on them in one half). For GV, those three teams are all in the other bracket, so they would not meet until the finals. And even if you put up 30+ on them, GV, with its improved passing attack, could easily put 40+ up on anyone.
Speed, SoL D this year is not their strength, to say it nicely. I too see GV taking D1. Haven’t seen Perk this year but if the past is any indicator they most likely don’t play any serious D either. Unfortunately, if you say GV is slow on D then D1 should have some wild ones coming.
IA great hearing from you! You are the Phil Steele of high school football in Southeastern pa. Great seeing you and MP Chesco tonight! Looking forward to meeting up with you guys next week Love this time of the year! Hearing you may do podcast with relayer stalker and possibly Moleskinner or Warrior.
IADelstradamus picks ‘Em again! Even the spread of Quakertown Soudeton game - is there no bottom to this guy’s football knowledge?!??
Khalani Eaton did not play for North Penn against CB South. That's a huge question mark as he's one of the best backs in the state. North Penn is going to put up some points, especially if Eaton is healthy, but I expect Ridley to be able to move the ball also against the NP defense. Could be a close one. 35-28 North Penn
Week 2 of the playoffs in District 1 should be a little bit more competitive at 6A level.
GV maybe the only game that could be decided by more than 2 Touchdowns. I think GV handles CB West
I am going to take Quakertown on the road. I think they will eek out a win at Kottmeyer Stadium this evening. They are a physical team that will not be intimidated by the style of play DEast implores. The only way DEast pulls this one out is if Quakertown isn't prepared for the fact that DEast hurry up offense runs a play every 8 to 10 seconds. If you are trying to adjust your defense to match strength and field of the formation, you could be in for a long evening. It will also wear you down because they run about 65 to 70 some plays a game when their O gets humming. Quakertown also starts 6 or 7 kids both ways. However, Quakertown has a pretty good Qb and a very good Wr. DEast doesn't cover the pass very well and they don't throw the ball very well themselves. That is why I'll take Quakertown in a close game. Should be fun.
Ridley vs. North Penn has all the makings of a shootout. Both teams have great offenses that have speed, can throw and put up points. Both teams have defenses that can give up some points when playing high powered offenses. I'll take North Penn over Ridley. I see the Knights pulling away in the second half after making halftime adjustments. Coaching edge has to go to North Penn. It is also difficult to win in the playoffs at North Penn. I believe they have never lost a true home playoff game on their own campus.
Perkiomen Valley and Coatesville is a rematch of a Week 1 game in which Perk Valley rolled to a 27-14 halftime lead. Coatesville figured something out and out tallied the Vikings 21-0 in the second half. I look for another high scoring game in this one with the team that has the ball last winning the game. Everyone I have seen or spoken with is taking the Vikes. They have a high powered offense, a great Qb who has started for 3 years. Alot to like about Perk Valley. They are honestly more deserving of a 6th seed. Coatesville is at home. It's been 9 years since they lost a home playoff game. They have been in alot of close games this year. May kick myself tomorrow for doing this but give me the home team.
GV maybe the only game that could be decided by more than 2 Touchdowns. I think GV handles CB West
I am going to take Quakertown on the road. I think they will eek out a win at Kottmeyer Stadium this evening. They are a physical team that will not be intimidated by the style of play DEast implores. The only way DEast pulls this one out is if Quakertown isn't prepared for the fact that DEast hurry up offense runs a play every 8 to 10 seconds. If you are trying to adjust your defense to match strength and field of the formation, you could be in for a long evening. It will also wear you down because they run about 65 to 70 some plays a game when their O gets humming. Quakertown also starts 6 or 7 kids both ways. However, Quakertown has a pretty good Qb and a very good Wr. DEast doesn't cover the pass very well and they don't throw the ball very well themselves. That is why I'll take Quakertown in a close game. Should be fun.
Ridley vs. North Penn has all the makings of a shootout. Both teams have great offenses that have speed, can throw and put up points. Both teams have defenses that can give up some points when playing high powered offenses. I'll take North Penn over Ridley. I see the Knights pulling away in the second half after making halftime adjustments. Coaching edge has to go to North Penn. It is also difficult to win in the playoffs at North Penn. I believe they have never lost a true home playoff game on their own campus.
Perkiomen Valley and Coatesville is a rematch of a Week 1 game in which Perk Valley rolled to a 27-14 halftime lead. Coatesville figured something out and out tallied the Vikings 21-0 in the second half. I look for another high scoring game in this one with the team that has the ball last winning the game. Everyone I have seen or spoken with is taking the Vikes. They have a high powered offense, a great Qb who has started for 3 years. Alot to like about Perk Valley. They are honestly more deserving of a 6th seed. Coatesville is at home. It's been 9 years since they lost a home playoff game. They have been in alot of close games this year. May kick myself tomorrow for doing this but give me the home team.
I think three of the four games will be close. I may be wrong on that. I see GV as the least competitive game. Looks like it’s going to be great weather wise tonight.
** G-Val certainly has the experience, largely senior (+30), veteran groups that has been there and done that whereas CB West who has definitely proven themselves is in new territory here against a mugger who I think will plain and simple wear them down as the game progresses. Jags are a brute at home with a way underrated athlete in Qb Max Busenkell at 74%, 1447yds, 21/1 ratio. They are a lot more than a running team.
** D-East played a more diverse schedule meaning different systems and teams than other D1 playoff team that could pay dividends here; Pennridge, State College, Academy Park, Rustin and Coatesville on the road, Delaware Valley, Uville, Bishop Shanahan and Spring Ford at home. Going 9-2 against that group is impressive. Qtown had one quality win at home against Upper Dublin who they throttled 30-0 and no other quality opponents. I had D-East 5th and Qtown 10th in April’s preseason rankings and guess I need to stick to that now.
** North Penn may edge the Raiders but it’s hard finding a reason barring home field why Ridley should lose or North Penn be the favorite. But….NPenn has their best defense in years at 16ppg with quality wins against Up Dublin, Pridge, CB West and a combative 6-5 CB East team, a common opponent Knights beat 28-21 at East and Ridley beat in opener 34-29 at home. NPenn scores 38 a game, Ridley 42 with a defense allowing 15pg discounting GVal 65-37 win. Ridley’s tests were the Jags, CB East and two games with Conestoga, with all their tests at home. Had NP #1 (GV #2) in preseason but Ridley sure looks like a live dog! Hard going against the Green Mystique that seemed to return this year, but I picked NP and they are home.
** Coatesville had quality wins against CB West 35-14, Perk Val (2nd week) 35-27 and a home loss to York 44-39. Their Qb Harrison Susi is a super talent throwing for 1386 yards and rushing for 959. Perk Val has a gun slinger too in Ethan Kohler, 2095-67%, 24/4, who is also their primary runner with 624 yards. They lack a game breaker there except for Kohler but have Dawson Debebe’s 702 in receptions. Perk Val’s test were losses to Coatesville and at home to Manheim Central 43-40, with a 28-22 win against Spg-Fd. Being a rematch makes this impossible to handicap since both have prolific offenses, Coatesville 39ppg, PV 40, and decent defenses, Coatesville 18, PV 16. Coatesville was 3rd in the preseason with PV 6th so grudgingly like NP-Ridley, I’m with Coatesville.
** D-East played a more diverse schedule meaning different systems and teams than other D1 playoff team that could pay dividends here; Pennridge, State College, Academy Park, Rustin and Coatesville on the road, Delaware Valley, Uville, Bishop Shanahan and Spring Ford at home. Going 9-2 against that group is impressive. Qtown had one quality win at home against Upper Dublin who they throttled 30-0 and no other quality opponents. I had D-East 5th and Qtown 10th in April’s preseason rankings and guess I need to stick to that now.
** North Penn may edge the Raiders but it’s hard finding a reason barring home field why Ridley should lose or North Penn be the favorite. But….NPenn has their best defense in years at 16ppg with quality wins against Up Dublin, Pridge, CB West and a combative 6-5 CB East team, a common opponent Knights beat 28-21 at East and Ridley beat in opener 34-29 at home. NPenn scores 38 a game, Ridley 42 with a defense allowing 15pg discounting GVal 65-37 win. Ridley’s tests were the Jags, CB East and two games with Conestoga, with all their tests at home. Had NP #1 (GV #2) in preseason but Ridley sure looks like a live dog! Hard going against the Green Mystique that seemed to return this year, but I picked NP and they are home.
** Coatesville had quality wins against CB West 35-14, Perk Val (2nd week) 35-27 and a home loss to York 44-39. Their Qb Harrison Susi is a super talent throwing for 1386 yards and rushing for 959. Perk Val has a gun slinger too in Ethan Kohler, 2095-67%, 24/4, who is also their primary runner with 624 yards. They lack a game breaker there except for Kohler but have Dawson Debebe’s 702 in receptions. Perk Val’s test were losses to Coatesville and at home to Manheim Central 43-40, with a 28-22 win against Spg-Fd. Being a rematch makes this impossible to handicap since both have prolific offenses, Coatesville 39ppg, PV 40, and decent defenses, Coatesville 18, PV 16. Coatesville was 3rd in the preseason with PV 6th so grudgingly like NP-Ridley, I’m with Coatesville.
Speed and jump, you couldn't be more wrong with your statement of the GV defense being woefully slow. You obviously have NOT watched many games of Garnet valley this year or you would know that the strength of their team is their defensive team speed! They're the fastest defense from sideline to sideline in District 1. This is the fastest defense GV has had in years. You don't average giving up 10 points a game, have the #3 ranked defense in District 1, with a woefully slow defense. You don't stop a Strath Haven team that rushes for more than 400 yards a game, and hold them to 2.9 yards a carry and 70 yards in the first half. Go back and listen to the Strath Haven broadcast team and listen how they rave about the Jaguars team speed. You can hear that game archive at Havenfootball.net. They said it's the fastest defense they've ever seen from Garnet Valley. So don't just throw statements out there to make it look like you know what you're talking about, cuz in this particular situation, you couldn't be more wrong!
I wouldn’t say they’re slow; just no burners. They looked disciplined and well coached last week as they knew their assignments. My guess is against Ridley they might of had some issues. NP struggled containing Ridley as they have some burners.
BJ - for the record , I’m not picking GV to,lose , but I still think there one obvious weakness is lack of team speed on defense( not to be confused with team quickness, which they have ). I’ve seen a few of their games this year and you can get behind their secondary in the passing game , and get to the outside in the run game. Strath Haven is not that kind of team, nor are many teams in D1. And Even if they give up 30+ to a top notch fast team , they are still likely to score 40.
Woefully slow was just the wrong adjective to describe the Jag defense. You can't be as successful as they have been this year with a woefully slow defense. I do agree you can easily get by their corners as is always the Achilles heel of the Jag defense. Good thing is, the D- line is usually on the quarterback so fast they don't have time to hit the receivers deep. The D-line is the heart of the defense and extremely disruptive. Without a doubt, one of the quickest most disruptive defensive lines they've ever had. Especially nose guard Nolan Brennan. He's in the backfield every play. Anyway, no hard feelings. Enjoy the games.
Semis:
1. GV over 5. QK - Panthers were impressive in their dismantling of DTE and will need the same penetration to slow the GV O. I think GV is just too well coached.
3. Cville over 7. Rid - Red Raiders running game seems to be coming alive. It’s nice to see Ridley back as a contender; hopefully the Skins are next.
Final:
1. GV over 3. Cville
1. GV over 5. QK - Panthers were impressive in their dismantling of DTE and will need the same penetration to slow the GV O. I think GV is just too well coached.
3. Cville over 7. Rid - Red Raiders running game seems to be coming alive. It’s nice to see Ridley back as a contender; hopefully the Skins are next.
Final:
1. GV over 3. Cville
Tune in tonight and let me know how slow GV defense looks... I beg to differ
Week 3 of the playoffs Semifinals-
Quakertown has had a great run. Still undefeated. Beat their rival twice, smashing them once in the playoffs. Are in the District Semifinal because they out physicalled a Downingtown East team whose MO is to be extremely physical. Complete domination that may cause DEast to be making some landscaping next year.
Unfortunately, the road has to end somewhere and I think it ends tonight. Garnet Valleys offense is something you need to play against a couple of times before you understand how to defend it. As physical as Quakertown is, it will eventually run out of answers to stop GV. GV pulls away in the second half and reaches next week's District Final.
Coatesville vs Ridley. Another shootout on the horizon. Should be a fast pace high scoring game. Offenses are really good. Return games are really good so look out 1000 yards combined? 80-85 points? Last team with the ball wins? Would not suprise me. I'll take the home team again based on experience and not losing a home playoff game in 9 years. Hopefully that means something and Coatesville moves on and meets Garnet Valley for round 4 next week.
Quakertown has had a great run. Still undefeated. Beat their rival twice, smashing them once in the playoffs. Are in the District Semifinal because they out physicalled a Downingtown East team whose MO is to be extremely physical. Complete domination that may cause DEast to be making some landscaping next year.
Unfortunately, the road has to end somewhere and I think it ends tonight. Garnet Valleys offense is something you need to play against a couple of times before you understand how to defend it. As physical as Quakertown is, it will eventually run out of answers to stop GV. GV pulls away in the second half and reaches next week's District Final.
Coatesville vs Ridley. Another shootout on the horizon. Should be a fast pace high scoring game. Offenses are really good. Return games are really good so look out 1000 yards combined? 80-85 points? Last team with the ball wins? Would not suprise me. I'll take the home team again based on experience and not losing a home playoff game in 9 years. Hopefully that means something and Coatesville moves on and meets Garnet Valley for round 4 next week.
Just did the math. 7:30...for laughs!
Coatesville-Ridley....shootout at the OK corral. Wild one, like North Penn if both get it cranking and why not with two gun slingers on full automatic in this one. The math says, Cville 6.83
Garnet Valley-Quakertown....reminds me of two veteran heavyweights getting ready to land some blows. Two bruisers going at it in a bare knuckles brawl. The math says.....Qtown 7.84
Those two should be two of the best games on a slate full of competitive games. Here's the rest.
SJP over Ne, math says 26.33
Freedom over Emmaus, math says 13.97 Freedom in a bitter rematch. Freedom more explosive but both can play D when they want to.
Hburg over Wilson, 8.17 Hburg per the math. Wilson will mug you with their ground game. But Harrisburg will swing back with FB Hopkins (6-2, 235) then zing you up top or on special teams.
Del Val over SC, 2.8 DV per math.... overtime? Even squads, both well coached with Mid Penn pedigree coming out for State High (?) if handle DV's home crowd at Hazleton.
Mt. Lebanon over Pitt CC, Lebo 15.17 per the math in a rematch at neutral to avenge only loss barring Imhotep 12-6 in opener? Physical with PCC all pumped up.
McDowell over Allderdice, 20.12 McD per the math. District-8 not putting out much recently except Westinghouse who Allderdice just beat. But still don't have enough for McDowell who at their best gave Cathedral Prep their only loss of the season 31-12.
Coatesville-Ridley....shootout at the OK corral. Wild one, like North Penn if both get it cranking and why not with two gun slingers on full automatic in this one. The math says, Cville 6.83
Garnet Valley-Quakertown....reminds me of two veteran heavyweights getting ready to land some blows. Two bruisers going at it in a bare knuckles brawl. The math says.....Qtown 7.84
Those two should be two of the best games on a slate full of competitive games. Here's the rest.
SJP over Ne, math says 26.33
Freedom over Emmaus, math says 13.97 Freedom in a bitter rematch. Freedom more explosive but both can play D when they want to.
Hburg over Wilson, 8.17 Hburg per the math. Wilson will mug you with their ground game. But Harrisburg will swing back with FB Hopkins (6-2, 235) then zing you up top or on special teams.
Del Val over SC, 2.8 DV per math.... overtime? Even squads, both well coached with Mid Penn pedigree coming out for State High (?) if handle DV's home crowd at Hazleton.
Mt. Lebanon over Pitt CC, Lebo 15.17 per the math in a rematch at neutral to avenge only loss barring Imhotep 12-6 in opener? Physical with PCC all pumped up.
McDowell over Allderdice, 20.12 McD per the math. District-8 not putting out much recently except Westinghouse who Allderdice just beat. But still don't have enough for McDowell who at their best gave Cathedral Prep their only loss of the season 31-12.
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I guess I will have to wait until Thursday to see this Quakertown team, but I really wish I could get there tonight. It should be interesting. It seems like most people, myself included, are doubting them simply because they are Quakertown and have little playoff history, but they just keep beating everyone in front of them.
Some people keep raising questions about Garnet Valley's defense and point to Ridley scoring 37 points against them. Ummm, 34 of those were in the first half. The second half was a complete blowout. The early part of the 3rd quarter is going to have a lot to do with the outcome. I'll take GV by two scores after a close first half.
Some people keep raising questions about Garnet Valley's defense and point to Ridley scoring 37 points against them. Ummm, 34 of those were in the first half. The second half was a complete blowout. The early part of the 3rd quarter is going to have a lot to do with the outcome. I'll take GV by two scores after a close first half.
Newman, it will be streamed on GV’s YouTube channel if you are interested in watching.
IA I’m surprised you didn’t have faith in EJ “DC” Moyer defense at the ville with Jim “Wildman” Limper coach those backers and the dline play was great tonight! Hope to see you cheering on Saints knights take on Haven. What is Saint going to do next ? Saint is going to do what Saint does
I haven’t seen much of Coatesville this year. But based on their results, I give Coach Ortega tons of credit. He always does a nice job and it seems like they’ve lost a lot to graduation over the last few years. I know the always have talent and speed, but I think they do a real good job of coaching them up. Is Coach Cantifio still there as the OC?
Coatesville has had GV’s number lately. In previous years, Coatesville would load the box (often with 7 guys on the line of scrimmage) against GV. They would play with no safeties and have man coverage on the WRs. The theory being their Corners are more athletic than GV’s WRs. I suspect this is a big reason for GV’s investment in their passing game coming into this year. They were most likely figuring if they want to win the big games, they can’t be one-dimensional. They will need to have an efficient day in the air to be able to score consistently. I’ll take Coatesville in a close one that’ll have no shortage of points. Coatesville 49-42
Coatesville has had GV’s number lately. In previous years, Coatesville would load the box (often with 7 guys on the line of scrimmage) against GV. They would play with no safeties and have man coverage on the WRs. The theory being their Corners are more athletic than GV’s WRs. I suspect this is a big reason for GV’s investment in their passing game coming into this year. They were most likely figuring if they want to win the big games, they can’t be one-dimensional. They will need to have an efficient day in the air to be able to score consistently. I’ll take Coatesville in a close one that’ll have no shortage of points. Coatesville 49-42
Lil, others, some post game playoff thoughts
I thought the 6A 1st round was reasonably predictable, emphasis on reasonably.
Cville-Ridley 50-14: Had to respect Ridley’s 11 wins and road win at NPenn last week, but Cville’s schedule of CBW, Perk Val, York, Shanahan, DEast and PV playoff rematch was more than Ridley’s. Thought same for DEast vs Qtown the week before? Cville is one explosive team and Ortega is head and shoulders above many coaches in the area; admitting my Dist-3 bias there.
GVal-Qtown 58-39: Got twisted around on this one with math calling for QT, but reality of GVal, especially at home prevailing. Surprised both defenses didn’t play better allowing 97 points. Vet teams but one was home with far more playoff savvy this deep.
Freedom-Emmaus 28-14: Love the rematches and Freedom just looked like the better team. Better numbers against exact schedule (barring home/away) with better defense against same.
St. Joe’s-Northeast 41-6: Losses against St Peter’s and St, Joe’s-Ham were all you needed here if it wasn’t clear enough after LaSalle game or history of teams. Big respect for that win seeing the LS-McDevitt game tho that was Aug 27.
Hburg-Wilson 14-10: Confusing game to handicap as this is an exceptional Cougar team vs one of the best ‘big game” coaches (Doug Dahms) in the district. Like Nick Saban, give this guy a week and look out. But Wilson has been grounded the last two years with no passing threat, a staple of previous Bulldog teams and Cougs have multiple weapons and speed to burn. Still, they just got by.
St Col-Del Val 28-19: Maybe the most confusing game with two good coaches and two average teams. SC didn’t have standouts at Qb/Rb, and except for a 21-18 ot win at rebuilding Cumberland Valley, they lost to all the quality in the Commonwealth Div; CD, CD East, Carlisle, Hburg, and elsewhere losing to DEast. DV plays in weak Lackawanna Div-1 but hats off to Coach O scheduling non-conf road games with Gateway, DEast and Valley View. Always a tough out.
Mt. Lebanon-Pitt CC 47-7: Rematch angle to Pitt CC but math had this close to a blowout (15.17 Lebo) based on games against similar/same by average score of 37-12. Vet team vs youthful bunch that will flip next year.
McDowell-Allderdice 27-13: A lot to go on here with Pitt 6A City champ Allderdice playing North Allegheny and Altoona and conference mate, Brashear, playing Erie High and McDowell. Had it at 20.12 for McD but thought it'd be higher.
I thought the 6A 1st round was reasonably predictable, emphasis on reasonably.
Cville-Ridley 50-14: Had to respect Ridley’s 11 wins and road win at NPenn last week, but Cville’s schedule of CBW, Perk Val, York, Shanahan, DEast and PV playoff rematch was more than Ridley’s. Thought same for DEast vs Qtown the week before? Cville is one explosive team and Ortega is head and shoulders above many coaches in the area; admitting my Dist-3 bias there.
GVal-Qtown 58-39: Got twisted around on this one with math calling for QT, but reality of GVal, especially at home prevailing. Surprised both defenses didn’t play better allowing 97 points. Vet teams but one was home with far more playoff savvy this deep.
Freedom-Emmaus 28-14: Love the rematches and Freedom just looked like the better team. Better numbers against exact schedule (barring home/away) with better defense against same.
St. Joe’s-Northeast 41-6: Losses against St Peter’s and St, Joe’s-Ham were all you needed here if it wasn’t clear enough after LaSalle game or history of teams. Big respect for that win seeing the LS-McDevitt game tho that was Aug 27.
Hburg-Wilson 14-10: Confusing game to handicap as this is an exceptional Cougar team vs one of the best ‘big game” coaches (Doug Dahms) in the district. Like Nick Saban, give this guy a week and look out. But Wilson has been grounded the last two years with no passing threat, a staple of previous Bulldog teams and Cougs have multiple weapons and speed to burn. Still, they just got by.
St Col-Del Val 28-19: Maybe the most confusing game with two good coaches and two average teams. SC didn’t have standouts at Qb/Rb, and except for a 21-18 ot win at rebuilding Cumberland Valley, they lost to all the quality in the Commonwealth Div; CD, CD East, Carlisle, Hburg, and elsewhere losing to DEast. DV plays in weak Lackawanna Div-1 but hats off to Coach O scheduling non-conf road games with Gateway, DEast and Valley View. Always a tough out.
Mt. Lebanon-Pitt CC 47-7: Rematch angle to Pitt CC but math had this close to a blowout (15.17 Lebo) based on games against similar/same by average score of 37-12. Vet team vs youthful bunch that will flip next year.
McDowell-Allderdice 27-13: A lot to go on here with Pitt 6A City champ Allderdice playing North Allegheny and Altoona and conference mate, Brashear, playing Erie High and McDowell. Had it at 20.12 for McD but thought it'd be higher.
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Stalker, what kind of formula are you using to come up with these point advantages for teams. Is this a real formula or you just having fun?
BJMaher. I like tinkering with things, football games or back home trekking over the field tracing battle lines, watercourses, fence-tree lines, farmsteads, how it’s all connected; the interrelationship of things in a battle’s outcome, or a football game.
It’s the same exercise with football, with the bottom line always being points and what produces them. The hard part is getting info. Some games aren’t covered. And, all box scores are not created equal making me wonder how they ever arrive at the official figures; rushing/passing records!? The Reading Eagle has different stats (#of pass, completion, carries, etc) than Lancaster Online, Pennlive, Carlisle Sentinel, York Dispatch and so on.
What I do with whatever information I get is simple. I give it a value. Some things found most impactful are turnovers, big play ability-yards per play (ability to run and stop the other guy). Possession time means little if the other guy has a Nicholas Singleton breaking off 40 and 50 yard runs every other possession, or a freshman phenom like Stone Saunders of McDevitt throwing scores every second or third possession. No possession time there! In fact, that can be an indicator so it’s not always what some talking head seems hung up on. But those are just indicators with the bottom line always being points scored and points allowed; the expression of all the above.
